To estimate Moody’s adjusted leverage trend, use a debt-to-earnings/cash-flow proxy. A common approximation is:

- **Adjusted debt proxy** = financial liabilities excluding concession liabilities + lease liabilities + bank overdrafts (current and noncurrent)
- **Earnings proxy** = EBITDA-like measure, using operating income before equity-accounted entities plus operating depreciation/amortization/provisions/impairment

### 2021 / opening 2022 leverage proxy

Financial debt items at 2022-01-01:

- Noncurrent financial liabilities excluding concession liabilities: €10,462.5m
- Current financial liabilities excluding concession liabilities: €8,624.3m
- Noncurrent lease liabilities: €1,298.1m
- Current lease liabilities: €410.6m
- Bank overdrafts and other cash position items: €241.9m

Total debt proxy = 10,462.5 + 8,624.3 + 1,298.1 + 410.6 + 241.9 = **€21,037.4m**

EBITDA proxy for 2021:
- Operating income before share of net income/loss of equity-accounted entities: €1,212.7m
- Operating depreciation/amortization/provisions/impairment: €2,117.2m

EBITDA proxy = 1,212.7 + 2,117.2 = **€3,329.9m**

Leverage proxy = 21,037.4 / 3,329.9 = **6.3x**

### 2022 / closing 2022 leverage proxy

Financial debt items at 2023-01-01:

- Noncurrent financial liabilities excluding concession liabilities: €19,692.1m
- Current financial liabilities excluding concession liabilities: €6,521.4m
- Noncurrent lease liabilities: €1,656.2m
- Current lease liabilities: €496.5m
- Bank overdrafts and other cash position items: €213.6m

Total debt proxy = 19,692.1 + 6,521.4 + 1,656.2 + 496.5 + 213.6 = **€28,579.8m**

EBITDA proxy for 2022:
- Operating income before share of net income/loss of equity-accounted entities: €2,206.3m
- Operating depreciation/amortization/provisions/impairment: €3,178.6m

EBITDA proxy = 2,206.3 + 3,178.6 = **€5,384.9m**

Leverage proxy = 28,579.8 / 5,384.9 = **5.3x**

### Trend

Although debt increased significantly, EBITDA increased proportionally more, reducing the leverage proxy from about **6.3x to 5.3x**. This indicates an **improving** Moody’s adjusted leverage trend for 2022.

<answer>Improving</answer>