To determine the appropriate reliance on hybrid bonds for Veolia Environnement's capital structure, I need to consider several factors based on the provided data. **1. Current Use of Hybrid Instruments** - The balance sheet shows “Titres Super Subordonnés à Durée Indéterminée” (Deeply Subordinated Securities), which are hybrid bonds. - In 2022 (2023-01-01), these stood at €3,496m, up from €2,461m at the end of 2021, largely due to the acquisition of Suez (€1,624m contribution noted in equity movements). - They are classified within equity, but represent a significant fixed charge (coupons paid: €88m in FY2022 vs €24m in FY2021). - Total Equity was €14,867m, so hybrids already represent about **23.5%** of total equity (or ~28.5% of parent equity €12,255m). **2. Capital Structure and Leverage** - Total Assets: €73,304m. - Total Equity (incl. hybrids): €14,867m. - Non-current financial liabilities (excl. lease/concession): €19,692m. - Current financial liabilities (excl. lease/concession): €6,521m. - Total gross financial debt (excl. hybrids) is quite high. Net financial debt is likely substantial (Cash ~€9,012m, but a lot of gross debt). - The equity cushion (without hybrids) is lower. Removing hybrids (€3,496m) leaves Equity attributable to owners at ~€8,759m, implying a leverage ratio that would be much higher. **3. Earnings Coverage** - Operating Income after JV/Assoc. (Résultat Opérationnel): €2,333m. - Net Finance Costs: -€633m in 2022 (up significantly from -€343m in 2021). - Profit for the period: €998m; attributable to parent: €716m. - Hybrid coupons: €88m. Coverage by earnings is reasonable (over 8x by OpInc, ~8x by net income). - The interest rate environment has shifted: 5Y Swap averaged 1.73% in 2022 (up from -0.26% in 2021). Corporate bond yields (iShares index) rose from 0.73% to 1.09%. Subordinated yields (with 0.2 delta) rose from 1.30% to 2.30%. Cost of hybrid debt is increasing, making it more expensive relative to senior debt. **4. Business Profile and Cash Flow Stability** - Veolia is a utility/essential services company with stable cash flows (Operating Cash Flow from continuing ops: €4,104m in 2022 vs €3,164m in 2021). - Operating WCR change is manageable. - High tangible assets (PP&E €16,569m, Concession intangibles €5,292m). - Stability supports some reliance on fixed-income hybrid securities, but the rising rate environment and the Suez integration risks (goodwill €11,638m, significant non-controlling interests now at €2,612m) argue for prudence. **5. Optimal Mix Consideration** - 0%: Too conservative; ignores the equity credit benefit and the large infrastructure base. - 25%: Roughly current level (as % of total parent equity). The company has already reached this. - 50%: Would mean hybrids of ~€6,000m–€7,000m, doubling down. In a rising rate environment, this would significantly increase fixed coupon obligations and possibly exceed rating agency tolerance for equity credit. - 75%–100%: Extremely aggressive, highly unlikely for an IG-rated utility with acquisition-related goodwill and integration risk. Rating agencies would likely view excessive hybrids as a sign of financial engineering weakness. **6. Market Context (Rates)** - The shift from negative to positive euro swap rates (2021 avg 10Y: 0.05% vs 2022 avg: 1.93%) means newly issued hybrids would have higher coupons than the legacy ones from the negative-rate era. - The sub-senior spread (delta 0.2 over IG index) averages ~2.3% in 2022, making the cost of hybrid capital materially higher. **Conclusion** Given Veolia is already near 25% reliance (hybrids as a proportion of its reported equity), the rising rate cycle, and the need to deleverage post-Suez acquisition, a target of **25%** is sensible. It maintains the equity credit without over-burdening the interest charge. Further increasing hybrids would be imprudent in the current market environment. 25%