To estimate Moody's adjusted leverage trend for 2022, we need to compare the leverage ratio at the end of 2022 to the leverage ratio at the end of 2021. Moody's adjusted leverage is typically defined as Adjusted Debt / Adjusted EBITDA. 1. **Adjusted Debt**: Under Moody's methodology, Adjusted Debt generally includes total financial debt (both current and noncurrent borrowings), less cash and cash equivalents excluding restricted cash. - End of 2021 (beginning of 2022): Debt = Noncurrent borrowings (9,513M) + Current borrowings (1,096M) = 10,609M EUR. Cash = Cash and Cash Equivalents Excluding Infrastructure Projects (5,329M) + Other Cash and Cash Equivalents Infrastructure Projects (160M) = 5,489M EUR. Net Debt = 10,609M - 5,489M = 5,120M EUR. - End of 2022 (beginning of 2023): Debt = Noncurrent borrowings (10,776M) + Current borrowings (877M) = 11,653M EUR. Cash = Cash and Cash Equivalents Excluding Infrastructure Projects (4,962M) + Other Cash and Cash Equivalents Infrastructure Projects (130M) = 5,092M EUR. Net Debt = 11,653M - 5,092M = 6,561M EUR. 2. **Adjusted EBITDA**: Under Moody's methodology, EBITDA is typically calculated by adding amortization and depreciation to operating profit (EBIT), adjusting for the share of results from associates and fair value changes, and adding back leases/rent expense. Using the Gross Profit approach (as standard for construction companies under Moody's) plus Amortization: - 2021: Gross Profit (610M) + Amortization (270M) = 880M EUR. - 2022: Gross Profit (728M) + Amortization (299M) = 1,027M EUR. 3. **Leverage Ratio** (Net Debt / EBITDA): - End of 2021: 5,120M / 880M ≈ 5.82x - End of 2022: 6,561M / 1,027M ≈ 6.39x Comparing the leverage ratio at the end of 2022 (6.39x) to the end of 2021 (5.82x), the leverage has increased, indicating a deteriorating credit profile. Even if we adjust the cash balance broadly, the significant increase in net debt outpaces the EBITDA growth, pushing the leverage higher. Deteriorating