I need to analyze EDP's leverage trend for 2022 using the financial data provided. Let me calculate key leverage metrics and assess the trend. ## Key Financial Data Extraction ### Balance Sheet Data: | Item | 2022-01-01 | 2023-01-01 | |------|-----------|-----------| | Total Assets | 50,994,152,000 | 58,816,411,000 | | Total Equity | 13,977,565,000 | 13,834,608,000 | | Total Liabilities | 37,016,587,000 | 44,981,803,000 | | Noncurrent Liabilities | 25,436,523,000 | 27,556,917,000 | | Current Liabilities | 11,580,064,000 | 17,424,886,000 | | Long-term Borrowings | 15,299,588,000 | 15,782,604,000 | | Current Borrowings | 1,518,348,000 | 4,239,869,000 | ### Income Statement Data (2022 full year): - Revenue: 20,650,764,000 EUR - Profit Loss: 1,169,749,000 EUR - Profit Loss Attributable to Owners: 679,001,000 EUR - Finance Costs: 1,753,220,000 EUR - Finance Income: 843,000,000 EUR - EBITDA proxy (Profit before financial items + D&A): 2,529,993,000 + 1,979,007,000 = 4,509,000,000 EUR ## Leverage Calculations ### Debt/EBITDA (Moody's adjusted approach): Moody's typically focuses on Debt/EBITDA and adjusts for pension deficits, operating leases, and other items. **2021 year-end (2022-01-01):** - Total Debt = Long-term Borrowings + Current Borrowings = 15,299,588,000 + 1,518,348,000 = 16,817,936,000 EUR - Right-of-use assets (operating leases) = 1,007,029,000 EUR (lease liabilities roughly similar) - Reported EBITDA for 2021: Need to calculate from 2021 data - Profit before financial items 2021: 1,930,785,000 EUR - D&A 2021: 1,731,755,000 EUR - EBITDA 2021 ≈ 3,662,540,000 EUR **2022 year-end (2023-01-01):** - Total Debt = 15,782,604,000 + 4,239,869,000 = 20,022,473,000 EUR - Right-of-use assets = 1,320,270,000 EUR - EBITDA 2022 ≈ 4,509,000,000 EUR ### Key Leverage Ratios: | Metric | 2021 | 2022 | Trend | |--------|------|------|-------| | Total Debt/EBITDA | 16.8B/3.66B = **4.6x** | 20.0B/4.51B = **4.4x** | Improving slightly | | Net Debt/EBITDA | (16.8B-3.22B)/3.66B = **3.7x** | (20.0B-4.90B)/4.51B = **3.3x** | Improving | | Debt/Equity | 16.8B/13.98B = **120%** | 20.0B/13.83B = **145%** | Deteriorating | ### Additional Considerations for Moody's Adjusted Leverage: 1. **FFO/Debt** (Funds from Operations): - FFO = Net Income + D&A + Deferred Taxes + Other non-cash items - 2022: ~1,169,749,000 + 1,979,007,000 + adjustments ≈ 3.5B+ - FFO/Debt 2022 ≈ 17-18% (moderate) 2. **Interest Coverage** (EBIT/Interest): - 2022: 2,529,993,000 / 1,753,220,000 = **1.4x** (weak) - 2021: 1,930,785,000 / 875,816,000 = **2.2x** (deteriorating significantly!) 3. **Current vs Non-current Debt Shift**: - Current borrowings increased dramatically from 1.5B to 4.2B (+179%) - This is a significant liquidity concern 4. **Equity Changes**: - Total equity actually **decreased** from 13,977M to 13,834M despite profit of 1,169M - This is due to negative comprehensive income (OCI losses on cash flow hedges: -739M for parent) - Dividends paid: 750M to parent + 204M to NCI = 954M total 5. **Asset Growth vs Debt Growth**: - Assets grew 15.3% (50.9B to 58.8B) - Debt grew 19.1% (16.8B to 20.0B) - Debt growing faster than assets ## Critical Analysis for Moody's: Moody's adjusted leverage typically considers: - **Reported Debt/EBITDA**: Improved slightly (4.6x to 4.4x) due to strong EBITDA growth - **FFO/Debt**: Likely stable to slightly improving due to higher EBITDA - **Interest coverage**: Deteriorated significantly (2.2x to 1.4x) due to much higher finance costs - **Debt maturity profile**: Deteriorated with sharp increase in current borrowings - **Retained cash flow**: Weak due to high dividends relative to earnings The **massive increase in finance costs** (from 876M to 1,753M, +100%) is particularly concerning for Moody's, even though EBITDA grew. This suggests: - Higher interest rates impacting floating rate debt - Refinancing at higher costs - Potential currency effects (EDP has significant international operations with exchange differences) The shift to current borrowings also indicates potential refinancing pressures. However, the **Debt/EBITDA ratio itself improved slightly**, and the company maintains investment-grade characteristics with scale and diversification. The negative OCI is largely mark-to-market on hedges, not economic losses. Given the mixed picture but with **interest coverage deteriorating sharply, debt maturity profile worsening, and debt growing faster than equity/assets**, while headline Debt/EBITDA is stable-to-slightly better, Moody's would likely view this as: **Stable to slightly Deteriorating** - but the interest coverage collapse and current debt spike are significant negatives. The key question is whether the slight improvement in Debt/EBITDA outweighs the interest coverage deterioration and liquidity profile weakening. For Moody's, which emphasizes **FFO/Debt and Debt/EBITDA as primary metrics**, with both relatively stable, but with clear **deterioration in interest coverage and debt structure**, the most likely classification would be **Stable** with negative bias, or given the significant increase in current debt and finance costs, potentially **Deteriorating**. Actually, re-reading: Moody's "adjusted leverage trend" specifically looks at the trajectory of leverage. With Debt/EBITDA going from ~4.6x to ~4.4x (improving), but interest coverage collapsing and current debt spiking, and equity declining, the **net assessment** considering all factors leans toward **Stable** as the headline metric is flat but underlying pressures are building. However, the sharp rise in current borrowings (refinancing risk) and doubling of finance costs with equity actually declining despite profits suggests **Deteriorating** when considering the full credit profile. Let me reconsider: For a utility like EDP, Moody's would focus on: - Debt/EBITDA: 4.6x → 4.4x (better) - FFO/Debt: likely stable or slightly better - Interest coverage: 2.2x → 1.4x (much worse) - Debt maturities: worse (more current) The interest coverage below 2.0x is concerning for a utility. Combined with declining equity and higher current debt, this suggests **Deteriorating**. Deteriorating