I need to estimate Moody's adjusted leverage trend for 2022 (the fiscal year ending January 1, 2023, i.e., the period 2022-01-01 to 2023-01-01). Moody's adjusted leverage is typically Debt/EBITDA. Let me work through the key components. **EBITDA Estimation:** - Operating Income before equity method: 2,206.3M (2022) vs 1,212.7M (2021) - Operating D&A/provisions/impairment: 3,178.6M (2022) vs 2,117.2M (2021) - EBITDA ≈ Operating Income + D&A = 2,206.3 + 3,178.6 = 5,384.9M (2022) vs 1,212.7 + 2,117.2 = 3,329.9M (2021) **Debt Estimation (Moody's adjusted):** Gross financial debt at end of 2022 (2023-01-01 balance sheet): - Noncurrent Financial Liabilities: 19,692.1M - Current Financial Liabilities: 6,521.4M - Noncurrent Lease Liabilities: 1,656.2M - Current Lease Liabilities: 496.5M - Noncurrent Concession Liabilities: 1,680.5M - Current Concession Liabilities: 243.2M - Bank Overdrafts: 213.6M - Total gross debt ≈ 30,503.5M Moody's typically adds lease obligations (already included as IFRS 16), pension adjustments, and hybrid securities treatment. They usually give 50% equity credit to hybrid securities. The deeply subordinated securities are 3,496.3M at end 2022, so Moody's would add ~50% = 1,748.2M to debt. Net of cash: 9,012.2M Approximate Moody's adjusted net debt ≈ 30,503.5 + 1,748.2 - 9,012.2 ≈ 23,239.5M Leverage ≈ 23,239.5 / 5,384.9 ≈ 4.3x **Prior year (end 2021, 2022-01-01 balance sheet):** - Noncurrent Financial Liabilities: 10,462.5M - Current Financial Liabilities: 8,624.3M - Noncurrent Lease: 1,298.1M - Current Lease: 410.6M - Noncurrent Concession: 1,588.4M - Current Concession: 169.4M - Bank Overdrafts: 241.9M - Total gross debt ≈ 22,795.2M - Hybrid 50% add: 2,460.7 * 50% = 1,230.4M - Cash: 10,518.7M - Net debt ≈ 22,795.2 + 1,230.4 - 10,518.7 ≈ 13,506.9M EBITDA 2021 ≈ 3,329.9M Leverage ≈ 13,506.9 / 3,329.9 ≈ 4.1x So leverage went from approximately 4.1x to 4.3x, a slight increase. However, the significant change is driven by the Suez acquisition which massively increased both debt and EBITDA. The 2022 year reflects the full consolidation of Suez. The leverage increased modestly from ~4.1x to ~4.3x. This represents a slight deterioration. However, looking at the operational performance: - Revenue grew 50%+ (largely from Suez consolidation) - EBITDA grew substantially - But debt also grew significantly due to acquisition financing The net effect shows leverage ticking up slightly. The massive increase in debt from the Suez acquisition (noncurrent financial liabilities nearly doubled) outpaced the EBITDA improvement on a proportional basis, but not dramatically. Given the acquisition-driven increase in leverage and the slight uptick in the ratio, this would generally be characterized as **Deteriorating** from a leverage standpoint, as the company took on significant debt for the Suez acquisition. Deteriorating