## Reasoning To estimate Moody's adjusted leverage trend, I need to analyze the key financial metrics that Moody's typically considers for leverage assessment, primarily focusing on Debt/EBITDA and related metrics. ### Key observations for 2022 (fiscal year ending Jan 1, 2023 vs. Jan 1, 2022): **1. EBITDA (Operating Profit Before Depreciation and Amortisation / EBE):** - 2022: -4,986M EUR (massive deterioration) - 2021: 18,005M EUR - This is a swing from positive €18B to negative €5B — catastrophic decline **2. Debt levels:** - Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities: 71,058M (2023) vs 56,543M (2022) — increased by ~€14.5B - Other Current Financial Liabilities: 71,844M (2023) vs 45,014M (2022) — increased by ~€26.8B - Total financial liabilities roughly increased from ~€101.6B to ~€142.9B - Proceeds from borrowings were €34.2B vs repayments of €5.9B — massive net new borrowing **3. Cash flow from operations:** - 2022: -7,425M EUR (negative) - 2021: +12,648M EUR - Dramatic deterioration in operating cash flows **4. Revenue vs Costs:** - Revenue increased from €84.5B to €143.5B (+70%) - But fuel/energy/transmission costs exploded from €44.3B to €121.0B (+173%) - This reflects the energy crisis impact, French nuclear fleet availability issues, and government-imposed price caps (bouclier tarifaire/ARENH) **5. Net Income:** - 2022: -18,225M EUR loss - 2021: +4,828M EUR profit **6. Equity:** - Declined from €62.0B to €46.6B despite capital increases **7. Leverage ratios:** - Debt/EBITDA: With negative EBITDA, this ratio is essentially undefined/infinite in 2022 vs. manageable in 2021 - Even using adjusted metrics, the massive increase in debt combined with the collapse in EBITDA/cash generation points to severe leverage deterioration The combination of: - EBITDA turning deeply negative - Massive increase in gross debt (borrowings increased by ~€40B+) - Negative operating cash flows - Enormous net loss of €18.2B - Equity declining significantly All point to a **severely deteriorating** leverage profile. Moody's actually downgraded EDF during this period, reflecting these exact concerns about nuclear output, government-imposed energy price measures, and resulting financial stress. Deteriorating