To estimate the Net Debt / EBITDA ratio for Fortum Oyj for the year 2022 (period 2022-01-01 to 2023-01-01) based on the S&P methodology, we need to determine two components: Adjusted EBITDA and Net Debt. **1. Determine Adjusted EBITDA** S&P Global Ratings typically uses "Comparable EBITDA" or a similar adjusted metric that adds back items affecting comparability to the reported Operating Profit before Depreciation and Amortization. The provided data explicitly lists "Comparable Ebitda". * **Comparable EBITDA (2022):** 2,436,000,000 EUR Alternatively, we can calculate it from the components to verify: * Comparable Operating Profit: 1,871,000,000 EUR * Depreciation And Amortisation Expense: 566,000,000 EUR * Calculated EBITDA = 1,871,000,000 + 566,000,000 = 2,437,000,000 EUR. * The reported "Comparable Ebitda" is 2,436,000,000 EUR. The slight difference (1 million) is likely due to rounding or minor adjustments in the official calculation. We will use the explicitly stated **2,436,000,000 EUR**. **2. Determine Net Debt** S&P's definition of Net Debt generally includes: * Total Debt (Short-term and Long-term interest-bearing liabilities) * Plus: Capitalized leases (if not already in debt) * Plus: Preferred stock (sometimes treated as debt-like) * Plus: Pension deficits (unfunded pension liabilities) * Plus: Minority interest (sometimes added back in leverage calculations depending on the specific agency nuance, but S&P often includes it in capitalization or adjusts EBITDA. However, standard Net Debt usually focuses on interest-bearing liabilities). * Less: Cash and Cash Equivalents * Less: Unrestricted cash equivalents. Let's identify the relevant balance sheet items for the period ending 2023-01-01 (which represents the end of the 2022 fiscal year). **Interest-Bearing Liabilities (Debt):** We need to sum up financial liabilities that bear interest. Looking at the balance sheet items: * **Noncurrent Financial Liabilities:** * Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities: 3,658,000,000 EUR * Noncurrent Derivative Financial Liabilities: 756,000,000 EUR (Derivatives are often excluded from standard debt unless they are hedging debt, but S&P may include gross debt. However, "Net Debt" usually nets cash against gross debt. Derivatives are volatile. Standard practice for "Debt" in leverage ratios often excludes derivatives or treats them separately. Let's look for explicit "Borrowings". The cash flow statement mentions "Noncurrent Borrowings". The balance sheet has "Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities". Let's assume "Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities" contains the bulk of bonds/loans. Derivatives are marked-to-market. S&P often adjusts for derivatives. Let's stick to core interest-bearing debt first. * Let's check Current Liabilities: * Other Current Financial Liabilities: 4,127,000,000 EUR * Current Derivative Financial Liabilities: 3,973,000,000 EUR * **Lease Liabilities:** The cash flow statement mentions "Repayments Of Non Current Borrowings And Repayments Of Lease Liabilities". These are likely embedded in the "Other ... Financial Liabilities" lines or separate. Without a specific "Lease Liability" line item, we assume they are included in the financial liabilities or provisions. * **Pension Deficits:** * Noncurrent Recognised Liabilities Defined Benefit Plan: 13,000,000 EUR. This is a small amount. S&P often adds unfunded pension liabilities to debt. **Cash and Cash Equivalents:** * Liquid Funds: 3,919,000,000 EUR * The item "Cash And Cash Equivalents" is also listed as 3,919,000,000 EUR. **Refining the Debt Calculation based on S&P Methodology:** S&P typically defines Debt as: 1. Short-term and long-term bank loans and borrowings. 2. Capitalized operating leases. 3. Preferred stock (if mandatory redeemable or fixed rate). 4. Unfunded pension liabilities. It usually *excludes* trade payables and derivatives (unless they are synthetic debt). Let's estimate the core interest-bearing debt from the provided lines: * **Noncurrent Debt:** "Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities" (3,658 M) likely contains bonds and loans. "Noncurrent Derivative Financial Liabilities" (756 M) are derivatives. * **Current Debt:** "Other Current Financial Liabilities" (4,127 M) likely contains current portions of loans/bonds and short-term borrowings. "Current Derivative Financial Liabilities" (3,973 M) are derivatives. If we strictly follow "Net Debt = Interest Bearing Debt - Cash", we should exclude derivatives if they are not considered "debt" in the traditional sense for this ratio, or include them if we are looking at "Gross Debt" including all financial liabilities. However, high derivative positions (common in energy companies like Fortum due to hedging) can distort the ratio. S&P often looks at "Debt" excluding derivatives for leverage ratios, or adjusts EBITDA. Let's look at the "Margin Receivables" and "Margin Liabilities". These are related to trading/hedging. * Margin Receivables: 2,607,000,000 EUR * Margin Liabilities: 352,000,000 EUR S&P often nets margin accounts or treats them as working capital for utilities/trading entities, or excludes them from debt. Let's try a standard calculation using "Other Financial Liabilities" as the proxy for interest-bearing debt, excluding derivatives which are marked-to-market hedging instruments. **Debt Components (Estimated):** * Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities: 3,658,000,000 EUR * Other Current Financial Liabilities: 4,127,000,000 EUR * Unfunded Pension Liability: 13,000,000 EUR * *Total Gross Debt (excluding derivatives)* = 3,658 + 4,127 + 13 = 7,798,000,000 EUR. **Cash Components:** * Cash and Cash Equivalents (Liquid Funds): 3,919,000,000 EUR. **Net Debt (Standard):** * Net Debt = 7,798,000,000 - 3,919,000,000 = 3,879,000,000 EUR. **Ratio:** * Net Debt / EBITDA = 3,879,000,000 / 2,436,000,000 ≈ 1.59 **Alternative Interpretation (Including Derivatives):** Energy companies have massive derivative books. If we include derivative liabilities as debt (which is aggressive and usually incorrect for leverage ratios unless they are synthetic debt), the debt would skyrocket. * Total Financial Liabilities (Noncurrent + Current) = (3,658 + 756) + (4,127 + 3,973) = 12,514,000,000 EUR. * Net Debt = 12,514 - 3,919 = 8,595,000,000 EUR. * Ratio = 8,595 / 2,436 ≈ 3.53. However, S&P specifically adjusts for derivatives in utility/energy sectors, often looking at the underlying debt. The "Other Financial Liabilities" line is the most appropriate proxy for bank debt and bonds. Let's check if there are other debt-like items. * "Nuclear Non Current Provisions": 966,000,000 EUR. These are regulatory provisions, not financial debt. * "Other Longterm Provisions": 118,000,000 EUR. Let's re-evaluate "Other Current Financial Liabilities". This often includes short-term commercial paper, current portion of long-term debt, and potentially other short-term borrowings. Let's re-evaluate "Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities". This includes long-term bonds and loans. Is there any "Lease Liability" explicitly stated? No. It is likely included in "Other... Financial Liabilities" or "Provisions". Given the magnitude, the bulk is likely bonds/loans. Let's consider the "Net Debt" definition used by Fortum itself in their reporting, which often aligns with rating agencies. Fortum typically defines Net Debt as interest-bearing liabilities less cash and cash equivalents. Interest-bearing liabilities usually comprise: - Borrowings (Current and Non-current) - Lease liabilities - Derivative financial instruments (sometimes included in gross debt for internal metrics, but rating agencies often exclude mark-to-market derivatives from the debt numerator for leverage ratios, or net them against derivative assets). If we look at the derivative position: * Noncurrent Derivative Assets: 343 M * Current Derivative Assets: 1,486 M * Total Derivative Assets: 1,829 M * Noncurrent Derivative Liabilities: 756 M * Current Derivative Liabilities: 3,973 M * Total Derivative Liabilities: 4,729 M * Net Derivative Liability: 4,729 - 1,829 = 2,900 M. If S&P includes the *net* derivative liability in debt (common for energy traders to reflect the collateral/cash impact): * Core Debt (Other Fin Liab): 7,798 M * Net Derivative Liability: 2,900 M * Pension Deficit: 13 M * Adjusted Gross Debt: 7,798 + 2,900 + 13 = 10,711 M * Less Cash: 3,919 M * Adjusted Net Debt: 6,792 M * Ratio: 6,792 / 2,436 ≈ 2.79 However, standard S&P methodology for industrial/utilities often excludes derivatives from the debt numerator entirely, focusing on funded debt. The "Comparable EBITDA" is also adjusted for comparability. Let's look at the previous year (2021) to see if we can reverse engineer the methodology or find a trend, although the balance sheet structure changed significantly (assets dropped from 149B to 23B, likely due to the Uniper deconsolidation/discontinued operations). The massive drop in Assets and Liabilities suggests the 2022 balance sheet is for the continuing operations (Fortum standalone) after the Uniper situation was classified as discontinued/held for sale or divested. The "Discontinued Operations" lines confirm this. For the continuing entity (Fortum): Debt = Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities (3,658) + Other Current Financial Liabilities (4,127) = 7,785 M. Add Pension Deficit: 13 M. Total Debt = 7,798 M. Cash = 3,919 M. Net Debt = 3,879 M. EBITDA = 2,436 M. Ratio = 1.59. Let's double check if "Other Current Financial Liabilities" includes trade payables. Usually, "Trade And Other Current Payables" is a separate line item (1,657 M). So "Other Current Financial Liabilities" is likely purely financial (debt). Is there any minority interest adjustment? S&P sometimes adds minority interest to debt or equity. In the "Net Debt" calculation, it's usually just interest-bearing liabilities. Let's consider if "Lease Liabilities" are separate. If they are inside "Other Financial Liabilities", they are counted. If they are in provisions, they might be missed. However, IFRS 16 leases are financial liabilities. It is safe to assume they are in the "Financial Liabilities" lines. One potential adjustment: S&P may deduct "unrestricted cash" only. "Liquid Funds" are generally unrestricted. Another potential adjustment: S&P might include the "Net Derivative Liability" if it represents a significant funding requirement. In 2022, energy companies faced huge margin calls. The "Margin Liabilities" are 352 M (Current) and "Margin Receivables" are 2,607 M. These are likely part of the derivative positions or separate working capital. The derivative liabilities (3,973 + 756 = 4,729) are huge compared to the debt. If these are hedging instruments, their cash flow impact is realized in EBITDA or below. S&P often calculates "Debt" excluding derivatives for leverage, but monitors liquidity separately. Given the prompt asks for an estimate based on S&P methodology, and S&P's standard leverage ratio is **Debt / EBITDA** where Debt is interest-bearing obligations excluding derivatives (unless synthetic), the 1.59x figure seems the most robust "standard" interpretation. However, let's look at the "Net Debt" definition in Fortum's own reports (which often guide the S&P analysis). Fortum defines Net Debt as interest-bearing liabilities minus cash and cash equivalents. Interest-bearing liabilities = Borrowings + Lease liabilities + Derivatives (sometimes). If we exclude derivatives: Debt = 3,658 + 4,127 = 7,785. Net Debt = 7,785 - 3,919 = 3,866. Ratio = 3,866 / 2,436 = 1.587. If we include Net Derivatives (Liabilities - Assets): Net Deriv = (756 + 3973) - (343 + 1486) = 4729 - 1829 = 2900. Debt = 7,785 + 2,900 = 10,685. Net Debt = 10,685 - 3,919 = 6,766. Ratio = 6,766 / 2,436 = 2.77. Which one does S&P use? For energy utilities with large trading books, S&P often uses a "Core Debt" metric excluding trading derivatives, or adjusts EBITDA. The "Comparable EBITDA" likely already adjusts for some volatility. The derivatives here are "Hedging Future Cash Flow". S&P typically excludes fair value changes of hedging derivatives from debt for leverage ratios, treating them as working capital or off-balance-sheet items for the leverage calculation, unless they are deeply in-the-money and represent a fixed obligation. Given the volatility, the exclusion is more standard for a "Net Debt / EBITDA" leverage ratio intended to measure structural leverage. Therefore, the ratio around 1.6 is the most likely intended answer for structural leverage. Let's refine the numbers one last time. EBITDA: 2,436,000,000 Debt: Non-current: 3,658,000,000 Current: 4,127,000,000 Pension: 13,000,000 Total Debt: 7,798,000,000 Cash: 3,919,000,000 Net Debt: 3,879,000,000 Ratio: 3,879 / 2,436 = 1.5923... Rounding to two decimal places: 1.59. 1.59