To estimate Moody’s adjusted leverage trend for Fortum Oyj in 2022, we must analyze the change in the ratio of Adjusted Debt to Adjusted EBITDA (or a similar earnings metric like Comparable Operating Profit) between the 2021 and 2022 reporting periods. Moody's leverage ratios typically use debt as the numerator and an earnings measure (like EBITDA or Funds From Operations) as the denominator. A higher ratio indicates higher leverage (more debt relative to earnings), which is generally considered "Deteriorating" from a credit perspective if the ratio increases significantly. **Step 1: Identify Adjusted Debt (Numerator)** Moody's adjusted debt usually includes reported debt plus adjustments for items like operating leases, pension deficits, and sometimes hybrid instruments. In the absence of specific Moody's adjustments in the text, we look at the balance sheet liabilities that constitute interest-bearing debt. * **2021 (End of 2021 / Start of 2022):** * Noncurrent Financial Liabilities: 8,701 million EUR * Current Financial Liabilities: 8,519 million EUR * Derivative Financial Liabilities (often excluded from core debt but relevant for cash flow risk, let's stick to core borrowings first): The text lists "Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities" and "Other Current Financial Liabilities". Let's sum these as a proxy for gross debt. * Total Core Debt 2021 ≈ 8,701 + 8,519 = 17,220 million EUR. * Note: The balance sheet shows massive derivative liabilities (16,657 noncurrent + 71,947 current), but these are mark-to-market values of hedges, not principal debt. Moody's typically adjusts for these or excludes them from the debt numerator, focusing on funded debt. * Let's check the Equity and Liabilities structure. Total Liabilities 2022-01-01: 135,997 million EUR. This is inflated by the derivative liabilities. * Let's look at the change in the core financial liabilities. * **2022 (End of 2022 / Start of 2023):** * Noncurrent Financial Liabilities: 3,658 million EUR * Current Financial Liabilities: 4,127 million EUR * Total Core Debt 2022 ≈ 3,658 + 4,127 = 7,785 million EUR. *Observation:* The core interest-bearing debt has decreased significantly from ~17.2 billion EUR to ~7.8 billion EUR. This is primarily due to the divestment of Uniper (discontinued operations), which carried significant debt. The "Discontinued Operations" had a massive impact on the balance sheet. **Step 2: Identify Adjusted EBITDA / Earnings (Denominator)** Moody's often uses "Adjusted EBITDA" or "Comparable Operating Profit" as a proxy for cash generation capability. * **2021 Period:** * Comparable Operating Profit: 1,429 million EUR * Comparable EBITDA: 2,016 million EUR * **2022 Period:** * Comparable Operating Profit: 1,871 million EUR * Comparable EBITDA: 2,436 million EUR *Observation:* The comparable earnings metric has increased from 2,016 million EUR to 2,436 million EUR. **Step 3: Calculate Leverage Ratio Trend** * **2021 Leverage (Debt / Comparable EBITDA):** * Debt ≈ 17,220 million EUR * EBITDA ≈ 2,016 million EUR * Ratio ≈ 8.5x * *Note:* This high ratio reflects the pre-divestment structure including Uniper's debt which was likely consolidated or associated. However, looking at the "Equity" drop and "Liabilities" drop, the company underwent a massive structural change. * Let's look at the *reported* leverage context. The prompt asks for the *trend*. * If we look at the continuing operations specifically (which is what remains after the Uniper spin-off/divestment): * The debt associated with the discontinued operations (Uniper) was removed from the consolidated balance sheet (or reclassified). * The remaining debt (Continuing Operations) is roughly 7.8 billion EUR. * The remaining EBITDA (Continuing Operations) is 2.4 billion EUR. * New Ratio ≈ 7,785 / 2,436 ≈ 3.2x. * **Comparison:** * Previous Ratio (approximate consolidated): ~8.5x (or higher if including other adjustments). * Current Ratio (continuing operations): ~3.2x. Even if we don't calculate the exact multiple, the direction is clear: 1. **Debt Decreased:** Core financial liabilities dropped from ~17.2bn to ~7.8bn. 2. **Earnings Increased:** Comparable EBITDA rose from ~2.0bn to ~2.4bn. A decrease in the numerator (Debt) and an increase in the denominator (EBITDA) leads to a significant **decrease** in the leverage ratio. **Step 4: Interpret the Trend** * A decreasing leverage ratio indicates that the company is less leveraged. * In credit rating terminology, a reduction in leverage is considered **Improving** credit quality. * The massive drop in liabilities (from 136bn to 16bn) and assets (from 150bn to 24bn) confirms the separation of the large, debt-heavy Uniper business. The remaining Fortum entity is smaller but has a much stronger balance sheet relative to its earnings power (Comparable Operating Profit increased, Debt decreased). Therefore, the leverage trend is Improving. Improving