To estimate Moody’s adjusted leverage trend for TenneT Holding B.V. for the year 2022, we must calculate the leverage ratio (Debt / Adjusted EBITDA or Debt / Capitalization) for the end of 2021 and the end of 2022 and compare them. Moody's typically uses "Adjusted Debt" and "Adjusted EBITDA" or "Funds From Operations (FFO)" to assess leverage. **Step 1: Determine Adjusted Debt** Moody's often treats hybrid capital as 50% debt and 50% equity, or sometimes fully as debt depending on the specific instrument's characteristics, but standard adjustment often includes a portion of hybrids in debt. Let's look at the reported liabilities and equity. * **2021 (End of 2021 / Start of 2022):** * Long-term Borrowings: 12,366 million EUR * Short-term Borrowings: 1,339 million EUR * Current Bank Overdrafts: 64 million EUR * Other Current Financial Liabilities: 281 million EUR * Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities: 183 million EUR * Lease Liabilities (Current + Noncurrent): 169 + 235 = 404 million EUR * Hybrid Capital: 2,125 million EUR * *Reported Total Liabilities:* 15,012 (Noncurrent) + 8,764 (Current) = 23,776 million EUR. * *Reported Total Debt (Interest Bearing):* Approx 12,366 + 1,339 + 64 + 281 + 183 + 404 = ~14,637 million EUR. * *Moody's Adjusted Debt:* Typically adds 50% of Hybrids. 14,637 + (0.5 * 2,125) = ~15,700 million EUR. Or if treated as 100% debt due to structural subordination or specific terms, it would be higher. Let's assume a standard adjustment where Hybrids are partly debt. * **2022 (End of 2022 / Start of 2023):** * Long-term Borrowings: 19,006 million EUR * Short-term Borrowings: 709 million EUR * Current Bank Overdrafts: 0 million EUR * Other Current Financial Liabilities: 550 million EUR * Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities: 185 million EUR * Lease Liabilities (Current + Noncurrent): 155 + 574 = 729 million EUR * Hybrid Capital: 2,125 million EUR * *Reported Total Debt (Interest Bearing):* 19,006 + 709 + 0 + 550 + 185 + 729 = ~21,179 million EUR. * *Moody's Adjusted Debt:* 21,179 + (0.5 * 2,125) = ~22,241 million EUR. **Observation:** Debt increased significantly from ~14.6 billion to ~21.2 billion (gross interest-bearing debt). This is a ~45% increase in debt. **Step 2: Determine Adjusted EBITDA or Operating Cash Flow** Leverage is Debt / EBITDA. We need to see if EBITDA grew proportionally. * **2021 Performance (Jan 2021 - Jan 2022):** * Revenue: 5,524 million EUR * Operating Expense: 5,861 million EUR * Operating Loss: -275 million EUR * Depreciation & Amortization: 1,165 million EUR * *EBITDA:* Operating Loss + D&A = -275 + 1,165 = 890 million EUR. * *Cash Flow from Operations:* 5,705 million EUR. (Note: This is unusually high compared to EBITDA, likely due to working capital movements specifically "EEG Working Capital" adjustments mentioned in the cash flow statement. The "Cash Flows From Used In Operations Excluding EEG Working Capital" was -1,260 million EUR. Moody's usually normalizes for volatile working capital like EEG surcharges. If we use the normalized operating cash flow, it is negative. If we use reported CFO, it is high. However, leverage ratios usually rely on EBITDA or FFO. Let's look at FFO proxy: CFO - CapEx? Or just EBITDA.) * Let's stick to EBITDA as a primary proxy for operating earnings power before financing. EBITDA 2021 ≈ 890 million EUR. * **2022 Performance (Jan 2022 - Jan 2023):** * Revenue: 8,299 million EUR * Operating Expense: 9,395 million EUR * Operating Loss: -976 million EUR * Depreciation & Amortization: 1,233 million EUR * *EBITDA:* Operating Loss + D&A = -976 + 1,233 = 257 million EUR. * *Cash Flow from Operations:* 1,196 million EUR. * *Normalized Operating Cash Flow (Excl EEG):* 596 million EUR. **Observation:** EBITDA dropped significantly from 890 million EUR to 257 million EUR. Even if we look at Cash Flow from Operations, it dropped from 5,705 million EUR to 1,196 million EUR. The normalized operating cash flow improved from -1,260 million to 596 million, but the absolute debt burden has grown massively. **Step 3: Calculate Leverage Trend** * **2021 Leverage (Debt / EBITDA):** * Debt: ~14,637 million EUR * EBITDA: 890 million EUR * Ratio: ~16.4x * **2022 Leverage (Debt / EBITDA):** * Debt: ~21,179 million EUR * EBITDA: 257 million EUR * Ratio: ~82.4x Even if we use Cash Flow from Operations (which includes large working capital swings): * 2021 Debt / CFO: 14,637 / 5,705 = ~2.57x * 2022 Debt / CFO: 21,179 / 1,196 = ~17.7x If we use Net Debt (Debt - Cash): * 2021 Net Debt: 14,637 - 3,204 = 11,433. Ratio to EBITDA: 12.8x. * 2022 Net Debt: 21,179 - 6,547 = 14,632. Ratio to EBITDA: 56.9x. In all metrics, the numerator (Debt) has increased substantially (by ~6.5 billion EUR), while the denominator (Earnings/EBITDA) has decreased substantially or grown much slower than debt. The company incurred a larger operating loss in 2022 despite higher revenue, indicating margin compression or one-off costs, while simultaneously taking on significant new long-term borrowings (increasing from 12.3B to 19.0B). An increase in debt combined with a decrease in operating profitability leads to a higher leverage ratio. A higher leverage ratio indicates a **Deteriorating** credit profile in terms of leverage. Deteriorating