To estimate Moody's adjusted leverage trend for Veolia Environnement in 2022, we must analyze the change in the ratio of Adjusted Debt to Adjusted EBITDA (or a similar earnings metric) between the end of 2021 (reported as 2022-01-01) and the end of 2022 (reported as 2023-01-01). **1. Calculate Adjusted Debt:** Moody's typically defines Adjusted Debt as Total Debt (Interest-bearing liabilities) plus other adjustments like lease liabilities, pension deficits, and sometimes preferred equity/hybrid instruments if treated as debt-like. Let's approximate Total Debt using Financial Liabilities and Lease Liabilities. * **End of 2021 (2022-01-01):** * Noncurrent Financial Liabilities Excluding Concession Liabilities: 10,462.5 M EUR * Current Financial Liabilities Excluding Concession Liabilities: 8,624.3 M EUR * Noncurrent Lease Liabilities: 1,298.1 M EUR * Current Lease Liabilities: 410.6 M EUR * *Approximate Gross Debt:* 10,462.5 + 8,624.3 + 1,298.1 + 410.6 = **20,795.5 M EUR** * *Note:* Moody's often nets cash against debt for "Net Debt" leverage, or uses Gross Debt for "Gross Leverage". Given the significant cash position, Net Debt is a critical metric. * Cash and Cash Equivalents: 10,518.7 M EUR (Note: The cash flow statement reconciles to a different "External Net Cash" figure, but balance sheet cash is standard for snapshot leverage). * *Approximate Net Debt:* 20,795.5 - 10,518.7 = **10,276.8 M EUR** * **End of 2022 (2023-01-01):** * Noncurrent Financial Liabilities Excluding Concession Liabilities: 19,692.1 M EUR * Current Financial Liabilities Excluding Concession Liabilities: 6,521.4 M EUR * Noncurrent Lease Liabilities: 1,656.2 M EUR * Current Lease Liabilities: 496.5 M EUR * *Approximate Gross Debt:* 19,692.1 + 6,521.4 + 1,656.2 + 496.5 = **28,366.2 M EUR** * Cash and Cash Equivalents: 9,012.2 M EUR * *Approximate Net Debt:* 28,366.2 - 9,012.2 = **19,354.0 M EUR** * **Trend in Debt:** Both Gross and Net Debt increased significantly. Net Debt nearly doubled from ~10.3B to ~19.4B EUR. This is primarily driven by the acquisition of Suez assets, reflected in the massive increase in Noncurrent Financial Liabilities. **2. Calculate Adjusted EBITDA / Operating Cash Flow:** We can use "Cash Flows From Used In Operating Activities" or derive EBITDA from Operating Income. * **2021 Period (2021-01-01 to 2022-01-01):** * Operating Income Before Share of Net Income Loss of Equity Accounted Entities: 1,212.7 M EUR * Operating Depreciation Amortization Provisions And Impairment Losses: 2,117.2 M EUR * *Approximate EBITDA:* 1,212.7 + 2,117.2 = **3,329.9 M EUR** * Operating Cash Flow: 3,147.2 M EUR * **2022 Period (2022-01-01 to 2023-01-01):** * Operating Income Before Share of Net Income Loss of Equity Accounted Entities: 2,206.3 M EUR * Operating Depreciation Amortization Provisions And Impairment Losses: 3,178.6 M EUR * *Approximate EBITDA:* 2,206.3 + 3,178.6 = **5,384.9 M EUR** * Operating Cash Flow: 4,148.2 M EUR * **Trend in Earnings/Cash Flow:** EBITDA increased from ~3.33B to ~5.38B EUR (approx. 61% increase). Operating Cash Flow increased from ~3.15B to ~4.15B EUR (approx. 32% increase). **3. Calculate Leverage Ratios:** * **Net Debt / EBITDA:** * 2021: 10,276.8 / 3,329.9 ≈ **3.09x** * 2022: 19,354.0 / 5,384.9 ≈ **3.59x** * **Gross Debt / EBITDA:** * 2021: 20,795.5 / 3,329.9 ≈ **6.25x** * 2022: 28,366.2 / 5,384.9 ≈ **5.27x** (Wait, let's re-evaluate Gross Debt composition. The "Noncurrent Financial Liabilities" jump is huge. Let's look at Net Debt/EBITDA as it's more sensitive to cash usage for acquisitions). Let's look at the context. The company acquired Suez. This is a step-change in size. Revenue grew from 28.5B to 42.9B (+50%). EBITDA grew from 3.33B to 5.38B (+61%). Net Debt grew from 10.3B to 19.4B (+88%). Since Net Debt grew faster (88%) than EBITDA (61%), the leverage ratio (Net Debt/EBITDA) increased from ~3.1x to ~3.6x. An increase in leverage ratio indicates a **deteriorating** leverage profile in the short term, as the company has taken on significant debt to fund acquisitions, which has not yet been fully paid down or matched proportionally by earnings growth in the first year of consolidation. While the operational performance improved (higher EBITDA), the financial structure became more leveraged. Moody's adjusted leverage usually includes hybrids as debt or equity depending on specific terms, but the sheer volume of new financial liabilities (likely debt funded) versus the earnings growth suggests a higher leverage ratio. The Net Debt/EBITDA rising from ~3.1x to ~3.6x is a clear deterioration in the leverage metric. Deteriorating