To estimate Moody’s adjusted leverage trend for Italgas S.p.A. in 2022, we must analyze the change in the ratio of Adjusted Debt to Adjusted EBITDA (or a similar earnings metric like EBITDA) between the end of 2021 (reported as 2022-01-01) and the end of 2022 (reported as 2023-01-01). Moody's adjusted leverage typically uses Net Debt (Total Debt minus Cash and Cash Equivalents) as the numerator and EBITDA (often adjusted for one-offs, leases, etc.) as the denominator. **Step 1: Calculate Net Debt for both periods.** * **Period 1 (End of 2021 / 2022-01-01):** * Total Financial Liabilities = Short Term Financial Liabilities + Long Term Financial Liabilities * Short Term Financial Liabilities (excluding other current financial liabilities, but we should check if "Other Current Financial Liabilities" are debt-like. Usually, "Short Term Financial Liabilities Excluding Other..." plus "Other Current Financial Liabilities" constitutes total short-term debt. Let's look at the components provided: * "Short Term Financial Liabilities Excluding Other Current Financial Liabilities": 591,188,000 EUR * "Other Current Financial Liabilities": 290,000 EUR * Total Short Term Debt ≈ 591,478,000 EUR * Long Term Financial Liabilities: * "Long Term Financial Liabilities Excluding Other Non Current Financial Liabilities": 5,785,707,000 EUR * "Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities": 6,283,000 EUR * Total Long Term Debt ≈ 5,791,990,000 EUR * Total Debt (2021) = 591,478,000 + 5,791,990,000 = 6,383,468,000 EUR * Cash and Cash Equivalents (2021) = 1,391,763,000 EUR * **Net Debt (2021)** = 6,383,468,000 - 1,391,763,000 = **4,991,705,000 EUR** * **Period 2 (End of 2022 / 2023-01-01):** * Short Term Financial Liabilities: * "Short Term Financial Liabilities Excluding Other Current Financial Liabilities": 142,437,000 EUR * "Other Current Financial Liabilities": 290,000 EUR * Total Short Term Debt ≈ 142,727,000 EUR * Long Term Financial Liabilities: * "Long Term Financial Liabilities Excluding Other Non Current Financial Liabilities": 6,402,913,000 EUR * "Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities": 34,000 EUR * Total Long Term Debt ≈ 6,402,947,000 EUR * Total Debt (2022) = 142,727,000 + 6,402,947,000 = 6,545,674,000 EUR * Cash and Cash Equivalents (2022) = 451,946,000 EUR * **Net Debt (2022)** = 6,545,674,000 - 451,946,000 = **6,093,728,000 EUR** * **Change in Net Debt:** Increased from ~4.99 billion EUR to ~6.09 billion EUR. This is a significant increase in leverage numerator. **Step 2: Calculate EBITDA (or Operating Profit proxy) for both periods.** Moody's often uses EBITDA. We can derive EBITDA from "Profit Loss From Operating Activities" (EBIT) by adding back Depreciation and Amortization. * **Period 1 (2021):** * Profit Loss From Operating Activities (EBIT): 583,231,000 EUR * Depreciation Amortisation And Impairment Loss Reversal...: 445,251,000 EUR * **EBITDA (2021)** ≈ 583,231,000 + 445,251,000 = **1,028,482,000 EUR** * **Period 2 (2022):** * Profit Loss From Operating Activities (EBIT): 641,338,000 EUR * Depreciation Amortisation And Impairment Loss Reversal...: 479,186,000 EUR * **EBITDA (2022)** ≈ 641,338,000 + 479,186,000 = **1,120,524,000 EUR** * **Change in EBITDA:** Increased from ~1.03 billion EUR to ~1.12 billion EUR. This is a moderate increase (~9%). **Step 3: Calculate Leverage Ratio Trend.** * **Leverage 2021:** Net Debt / EBITDA = 4,991,705,000 / 1,028,482,000 ≈ **4.85x** * **Leverage 2022:** Net Debt / EBITDA = 6,093,728,000 / 1,120,524,000 ≈ **5.44x** The leverage ratio increased from approximately 4.85x to 5.44x. An increase in the leverage ratio indicates that the company is more leveraged relative to its earnings capacity. In credit rating terminology, an increase in leverage is considered a negative credit factor, meaning the leverage profile is **deteriorating**. The primary driver is the substantial increase in Net Debt (by ~1.1 billion EUR), primarily due to a large decrease in Cash and Cash Equivalents (from ~1.39bn to ~0.45bn) and an increase in Long Term Financial Liabilities, which outweighed the growth in EBITDA. Deteriorating