To estimate Moody’s adjusted leverage trend for 2022, we need to calculate the leverage ratio (Adjusted Debt / Adjusted EBITDA) for both 2021 and 2022 and compare them. Moody's typically defines Adjusted Debt as Reported Debt plus certain adjustments (like operating lease liabilities, though IFRS 16 already capitalizes these, and potentially other off-balance sheet items or cash netting depending on the specific methodology, but standard reported debt is a strong proxy if specific adjustments aren't detailed). Adjusted EBITDA is generally Reported EBITDA plus/minus specific adjustments. **Step 1: Calculate Adjusted Debt for 2021 and 2022** Moody's often uses "Debt" which includes interest-bearing liabilities. Let's look at the financial liabilities. * **2022 (Year End 2022-12-31 / Report Date 2023-01-01):** * Noncurrent Financial Liabilities: 13,999 million EUR * Current Financial Liabilities: 2,302 million EUR * Total Reported Financial Debt = 13,999 + 2,302 = 16,301 million EUR. * Note: Moody's often nets cash. Cash and Cash Equivalents (2023-01-01) = 3,985 million EUR. * Net Debt = 16,301 - 3,985 = 12,316 million EUR. * However, Moody's "Adjusted Debt" often adds back operating leases if not already included or makes other adjustments. Under IFRS, lease liabilities are included in financial liabilities. The data shows "Noncurrent Lease Liabilities" (1,309m) and "Current Lease Liabilities" (177m) are likely part of the financial liabilities figures or separate. Let's assume the standard "Total Debt" metric often used in leverage calculations includes all interest-bearing debt. * Let's check the previous year for consistency. * **2021 (Year End 2021-12-31 / Report Date 2022-01-01):** * Noncurrent Financial Liabilities: 15,114 million EUR * Current Financial Liabilities: 1,698 million EUR * Total Reported Financial Debt = 15,114 + 1,698 = 16,812 million EUR. * Cash and Cash Equivalents (2022-01-01) = 3,965 million EUR. * Net Debt = 16,812 - 3,965 = 12,847 million EUR. Comparing Net Debt: 2021 Net Debt: ~12,847 million EUR 2022 Net Debt: ~12,316 million EUR Debt has decreased slightly. **Step 2: Identify Adjusted EBITDA for 2021 and 2022** The report provides "Beneficio Bruto De Explotacion Ebitda" (Gross Operating Profit EBITDA). * **2022 EBITDA:** 4,954 million EUR * **2021 EBITDA:** 3,529 million EUR Moody's adjustments to EBITDA usually involve adding back non-recurring items, share-based payments, etc. Without specific adjustment data, we use the reported EBITDA as the primary driver, noting that the trend is likely preserved unless there were massive one-offs. The increase from 3,529 to 4,954 is significant (approx. 40% increase). **Step 3: Calculate Leverage Ratios** * **2021 Leverage (Net Debt / EBITDA):** $12,847 / 3,529 \approx 3.64x$ * **2022 Leverage (Net Debt / EBITDA):** $12,316 / 4,954 \approx 2.49x$ Even if we used Gross Debt instead of Net Debt: * 2021 Gross Leverage: $16,812 / 3,529 \approx 4.76x$ * 2022 Gross Leverage: $16,301 / 4,954 \approx 3.29x$ In both scenarios, the leverage ratio has decreased significantly from 2021 to 2022. A decrease in the leverage ratio indicates an **Improving** credit profile regarding leverage. The primary driver is the substantial increase in EBITDA (from 3.5B to 4.9B) combined with a slight reduction in net debt. This results in a much lower debt-to-EBITDA multiple. Improving