To estimate Moody’s adjusted leverage trend for ENGIE in 2022, we must analyze the change in the ratio of Adjusted Debt to Adjusted EBITDA (or a similar earnings metric like Funds From Operations) between the end of 2021 and the end of 2022. **1. Calculate Adjusted Debt:** Moody's typically adjusts reported debt by adding items like operating lease liabilities (if not already capitalized), pension deficits, and sometimes a portion of hybrid instruments or derivatives, while subtracting excess cash. For a high-level estimation using the provided data, we look at Total Liabilities minus Equity, or more specifically, interest-bearing debt. * **2021 (End of 2021 / Start of 2022):** * Long-term Borrowings: 30,458 million EUR * Current Borrowings: 10,590 million EUR * Total Reported Interest-Bearing Debt: ~41,048 million EUR * Cash and Cash Equivalents: 13,890 million EUR * Net Debt (Reported): 41,048 - 13,890 = 27,158 million EUR. * *Note on Derivatives:* ENGIE has significant derivative positions. Moody's often looks at gross debt or adjusts for collateral. However, the core leverage driver is the debt/EBITDA ratio. * **2022 (End of 2022 / Start of 2023):** * Long-term Borrowings: 28,083 million EUR * Current Borrowings: 12,508 million EUR * Total Reported Interest-Bearing Debt: ~40,591 million EUR * Cash and Cash Equivalents: 15,570 million EUR * Net Debt (Reported): 40,591 - 15,570 = 25,021 million EUR. On a net debt basis, the absolute debt burden decreased slightly from ~27.2 billion to ~25.0 billion. This suggests a potential improvement in the numerator. **2. Calculate Adjusted EBITDA / Earnings Proxy:** Leverage is a ratio. We must look at the denominator (earnings/cash flow generation). * **2021 Performance:** * Revenue: 57,866 million EUR * Current Operating Income Including Operating Mtm: 6,116 million EUR * Profit Loss From Operating Activities: 6,722 million EUR * The company generated strong operating profits. * **2022 Performance:** * Revenue: 93,865 million EUR (Significant increase, largely due to energy price spikes). * Current Operating Income Including Operating Mtm: 4,309 million EUR (Decrease from 6,116 million). * Profit Loss From Operating Activities: 1,127 million EUR (Significant decrease from 6,722 million). * Net Financial Income Loss: -3,003 million EUR (Worsened from -1,350 million). * Profit Loss Attributable to Owners: 216 million EUR (Sharp drop from 3,661 million). Although Revenue increased massively, the *operating income* and *net profit* decreased significantly. This indicates that the cost of sales (Purchases And Operating Derivatives) increased disproportionately (from 38.8 billion to 74.5 billion), squeezing margins. Moody's Adjusted EBITDA usually adds back depreciation, amortization, and sometimes impairment. * **2021 Est. EBITDA Proxy:** Operating Income (6,722) + Depreciation/Amortization (4,840) ≈ 11,562 million EUR. * **2022 Est. EBITDA Proxy:** Operating Income (1,127) + Depreciation/Amortization (5,187) + Impairment Reversal (2,774 - note: reversal reduces expense, so it's already in income, but let's look at the "Current Operating Income" which is a cleaner operational metric). * Let's use "Current Operating Income Including Operating Mtm" + Depreciation/Amortization as a proxy for operational cash generation before working capital changes. * 2021: 6,116 + 4,840 = 10,956 million EUR. * 2022: 4,309 + 5,187 = 9,496 million EUR. The earnings proxy (denominator) has **decreased** from ~11 billion to ~9.5 billion. **3. Leverage Ratio Trend:** * **2021 Leverage (Net Debt / EBITDA Proxy):** 27,158 / 10,956 ≈ **2.48x** * **2022 Leverage (Net Debt / EBITDA Proxy):** 25,021 / 9,496 ≈ **2.63x** Even if we use Gross Debt: * 2021: 41,048 / 10,956 ≈ 3.75x * 2022: 40,591 / 9,496 ≈ 4.27x In both scenarios, the leverage ratio has **increased**. The reduction in net debt was not sufficient to offset the significant decline in operating profitability and earnings generation. A higher leverage ratio indicates a deterioration in the credit profile regarding leverage. Furthermore, Moody's often adjusts for volatility in commodity derivatives. The "Purchases And Operating Derivatives" line item more than doubled, creating significant margin pressure. While cash flow from operations remained positive (8,586 million in 2022 vs 7,313 million in 2021), the drop in operating income and the increase in net financial costs (interest rates rising) put upward pressure on leverage metrics. The sharp drop in "Profit Loss From Operating Activities" from 6.7bn to 1.1bn is a critical negative signal for earnings-based leverage ratios. Therefore, the leverage trend is deteriorating. Deteriorating