To estimate the Moody’s adjusted leverage trend for Acea S.p.A. in 2022, we need to analyze the change in the ratio of Adjusted Debt to Adjusted EBITDA (or a similar proxy for operating cash flow generation) between 2021 and 2022. Moody's typically defines leverage as Total Debt (often adjusted for leases, pensions, etc.) divided by EBITDA (often adjusted for one-offs, leases, etc.). **Step 1: Calculate Adjusted Debt (Numerator)** Moody's usually considers "Total Debt" as the sum of short-term and long-term interest-bearing debt. We can approximate this from the balance sheet items provided: * **2022 (End of 2021 / Start of 2022):** * Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities: 4,791,979,000 EUR * Other Current Financial Liabilities: 285,222,000 EUR * Total Debt (approx) = 4,791,979,000 + 285,222,000 = 5,077,201,000 EUR * *Note: Lease liabilities (Right-of-use assets) are often added back to debt in adjusted metrics. Right-of-use assets were 53,096,000 EUR. Let's assume debt includes these or they are netted. For trend analysis, the magnitude of change in reported financial liabilities is the primary driver.* * **2023 (End of 2022):** * Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities: 4,722,263,000 EUR * Other Current Financial Liabilities: 619,418,000 EUR * Total Debt (approx) = 4,722,263,000 + 619,418,000 = 5,341,681,000 EUR * Right-of-use assets: 90,397,000 EUR. *Change in Debt:* The total reported financial liabilities increased from ~5.08 billion EUR to ~5.34 billion EUR. This is an increase of approximately 264 million EUR. **Step 2: Calculate Adjusted EBITDA / Operating Cash Flow (Denominator)** We can use "Cash Flows From Used In Operations Before Changes In Working Capital" as a strong proxy for operating cash generation, or reconstruct EBITDA. * **EBITDA Reconstruction:** * **2021:** * Profit Loss From Operating Activities: 581,101,000 EUR * Amortization and Depreciation (Ammortamenti E Accantonamenti): 588,768,000 EUR * Impairment Loss: 86,207,000 EUR * EBITDA ≈ 581,101,000 + 588,768,000 + 86,207,000 = 1,256,076,000 EUR. * *Check against Gross Profit:* Gross Profit was 1,256,075,000 EUR. This matches closely if we assume Operating Expenses exclude D&A and Impairment, or that Gross Profit here is actually EBITDA (common in some Italian reporting formats where "Margine Operativo Lordo" is EBITDA). The item "Gross Profit" is listed as 1,256,075,000. The item "Profit Loss From Operating Activities" is 581,101,000. The difference is roughly D&A + Impairment. So EBITDA is approx 1.256 billion EUR. * **2022:** * Profit Loss From Operating Activities: 565,851,000 EUR * Amortization and Depreciation: 625,799,000 EUR * Impairment Loss: 113,370,000 EUR * EBITDA ≈ 565,851,000 + 625,799,000 + 113,370,000 = 1,305,020,000 EUR. * *Check against Gross Profit:* Listed as 1,305,021,000 EUR. So EBITDA is approx 1.305 billion EUR. *Change in EBITDA:* EBITDA increased from ~1.256 billion EUR to ~1.305 billion EUR. This is an increase of approximately 49 million EUR. **Step 3: Analyze the Leverage Ratio Trend** * **2021 Leverage Proxy:** Debt / EBITDA = 5,077 / 1,256 ≈ 4.04x * **2022 Leverage Proxy:** Debt / EBITDA = 5,342 / 1,305 ≈ 4.09x The leverage ratio has increased slightly from 4.04x to 4.09x. Let's look at Cash Flow from Operations (CFO) which is often used in liquidity-adjusted leverage or as a sanity check. * CFO 2021: 759,521,000 EUR * CFO 2022: 726,703,000 EUR CFO decreased by ~33 million EUR. If we use Debt / CFO: * 2021: 5,077 / 760 ≈ 6.68x * 2022: 5,342 / 727 ≈ 7.35x This shows a more significant deterioration. However, Moody's primarily uses Debt/EBITDA. The increase in debt (numerator) was ~5.2%, while the increase in EBITDA (denominator) was ~3.9%. Since the numerator grew faster than the denominator, the ratio increased. An increase in the leverage ratio indicates that the company is more leveraged relative to its earnings capacity. Therefore, the credit profile regarding leverage is deteriorating. Additionally, looking at the "Net Financial Position" (Disponibilità Monetaria Netta): * 2021: 693,193,000 EUR (Net Cash/Debt position? The label says "Disponibilità Monetaria Netta", usually Net Financial Debt is negative of this if it's cash, or it represents Net Debt. Given the magnitude of debt (~5B) and cash (~0.6B), this figure likely represents Net Cash if positive, or Net Debt if defined differently. Let's look at Cash vs Debt. * Cash 2021: 680,820,000. Debt: ~5,077,000,000. Net Debt: ~4,396,000,000. * Cash 2022: 559,908,000. Debt: ~5,341,000,000. Net Debt: ~4,781,000,000. * Net Debt increased by ~385 million EUR. * EBITDA increased by ~49 million EUR. * Net Debt / EBITDA 2021: 4,396 / 1,256 ≈ 3.50x * Net Debt / EBITDA 2022: 4,781 / 1,305 ≈ 3.66x Both Gross Leverage and Net Leverage ratios increased. An increase in leverage is a deterioration of the leverage metric. Deteriorating