To estimate Moody’s adjusted leverage trend for Ørsted A/S in 2022, we must analyze the change in the ratio of Adjusted Debt to Adjusted EBITDA (or a similar proxy like Funds From Operations) between 2021 and 2022. Moody's typically adjusts reported figures to reflect economic reality, often adding back certain items to debt (like hybrid capital or operating leases) and adjusting EBITDA for non-recurring items or specific industry metrics. **Step 1: Calculate Reported Leverage Metrics** First, let's look at the raw data provided for the two periods: * **Period 2021 (2021-01-01 to 2022-01-01):** * Revenue: 77,673 million DKK * EBITDA (Profit from Operating Activities Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortisation): 24,296 million DKK * Total Liabilities: 184,756 million DKK * Hybrid Capital: 17,984 million DKK * Lease Liabilities (Current + Noncurrent): 720 + 6,812 = 7,532 million DKK * Net Debt Proxy: While Moody's uses Gross Debt or Net Debt depending on the sector, for utilities/renewables, Gross Debt is often a key component. Let's look at Borrowings. * Long-term Borrowings: 31,502 million DKK * Short-term Borrowings: 19,493 million DKK * Total Reported Borrowings: 50,995 million DKK. * **Period 2022 (2022-01-01 to 2023-01-01):** * Revenue: 132,277 million DKK * EBITDA: 32,057 million DKK * Total Liabilities: 218,610 million DKK * Hybrid Capital: 19,793 million DKK * Lease Liabilities (Current + Noncurrent): 569 + 7,697 = 8,266 million DKK * Total Reported Borrowings: * Long-term Borrowings: 60,451 million DKK * Short-term Borrowings: 2,830 million DKK * Total Reported Borrowings: 63,281 million DKK. **Step 2: Analyze the Trend in Key Components** * **EBITDA Growth:** EBITDA increased from 24,296 million DKK to 32,057 million DKK. This is an increase of approximately 32%. * **Debt Growth:** Reported borrowings increased from 50,995 million DKK to 63,281 million DKK. This is an increase of approximately 24%. * **Hybrid Capital:** Increased from 17,984 million DKK to 19,793 million DKK. Moody's often treats hybrid capital as 50% debt and 50% equity, or sometimes fully as debt depending on the instrument's characteristics. Regardless, it grew. * **Lease Liabilities:** Increased slightly from 7,532 million DKK to 8,266 million DKK. **Step 3: Estimate Adjusted Leverage** Moody's Adjusted Debt typically includes: 1. Reported Borrowings (Short + Long term). 2. A portion of Hybrid Capital (often 50% or 100% depending on rating methodology specifics for hybrids). 3. Lease Liabilities. 4. Other adjustments (e.g., underfunded pensions, though not explicitly detailed here, we stick to available data). Let's construct a proxy for "Adjusted Debt": * **2021 Adjusted Debt Proxy:** * Borrowings: 50,995 * Leases: 7,532 * Hybrids (assuming 50% debt treatment for conservative leverage view, or 100% for gross): Let's use a standard utility adjustment where hybrids are often partially credited. Even if we take 100% of hybrids as debt-like for a "gross" view: * Total Debt-like Obligations = 50,995 + 7,532 + 17,984 = 76,511 million DKK. * Leverage Ratio (Debt/EBITDA) = 76,511 / 24,296 ≈ **3.15x**. * **2022 Adjusted Debt Proxy:** * Borrowings: 63,281 * Leases: 8,266 * Hybrids: 19,793 * Total Debt-like Obligations = 63,281 + 8,266 + 19,793 = 91,340 million DKK. * Leverage Ratio (Debt/EBITDA) = 91,340 / 32,057 ≈ **2.85x**. Even if we assume a different treatment for hybrids (e.g., 50% debt): * **2021:** Debt = 50,995 + 7,532 + (0.5 * 17,984) = 67,524. Ratio = 67,524 / 24,296 ≈ **2.78x**. * **2022:** Debt = 63,281 + 8,266 + (0.5 * 19,793) = 81,443. Ratio = 81,443 / 32,057 ≈ **2.54x**. In both scenarios, the leverage ratio decreases significantly. The denominator (EBITDA) grew by ~32%, while the numerator (Debt-like obligations) grew by ~19% (in the 100% hybrid case) or ~21% (in the 50% hybrid case). **Step 4: Consider Other Factors** * **Cash Flow from Operations:** Increased from 12,148 million DKK to 11,924 million DKK (slight decrease). However, EBITDA is the primary driver for leverage ratios in this context. * **One-off items:** The 2022 revenue and EBITDA were boosted significantly by high energy prices. While Moody's might adjust for "normalised" earnings, the sheer scale of the EBITDA increase relative to the debt increase suggests a deleveraging effect in the reported year. * **Asset Growth:** The company invested heavily (CapEx ~33 billion DKK), funded by debt, but the operational performance (EBITDA) outpaced the debt accumulation. Since the ratio of Debt to EBITDA has decreased from 2021 to 2022, the leverage profile has improved. A lower leverage ratio indicates a stronger ability to service debt and lower financial risk. Therefore, the trend is Improving. Improving