To estimate Moody’s adjusted leverage trend for Electricité de France (EDF) in 2022, we must analyze the change in the ratio of Adjusted Debt to Adjusted EBITDA (or a similar earnings metric like Funds From Operations). Leverage is generally defined as Debt / Earnings. An increase in this ratio indicates deteriorating credit quality, while a decrease indicates improving credit quality. **1. Analyze Earnings (Denominator):** * **Operating Profit Before Depreciation and Amortisation (EBITDA):** * 2021: 18,005 million EUR * 2022: -4,986 million EUR * There is a massive decline in operating profitability, turning from a significant profit to a significant loss. * **Profit Loss From Operating Activities (Operating Income):** * 2021: 5,225 million EUR * 2022: -19,363 million EUR * **Net Profit:** * 2021: 4,828 million EUR * 2022: -18,225 million EUR The earnings denominator has collapsed drastically. Even if we use a cash-flow based metric like Funds From Operations (FFO), the negative operating cash flow from continuing operations (-7,425 million EUR in 2022 vs +12,648 million EUR in 2021) suggests a severe deterioration in the company's ability to generate cash from core operations to cover debt. **2. Analyze Debt (Numerator):** * **Total Liabilities:** * End of 2021 (2022-01-01): Total Assets (360,966) - Equity (61,989) = 298,977 million EUR. Alternatively, sum of Noncurrent Liabilities (201,838) and Current Liabilities (97,109 + 30) ≈ 298,977 million EUR. * End of 2022 (2023-01-01): Total Assets (388,132) - Equity (46,612) = 341,520 million EUR. Alternatively, sum of Noncurrent Liabilities (203,941) and Current Liabilities (137,542 + 37) ≈ 341,520 million EUR. * **Debt Increase:** The total liabilities (a proxy for debt in the absence of specific interest-bearing debt breakdowns, though "Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities" and "Other Current Financial Liabilities" are explicit debt components) increased significantly. * Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities: 56,543 -> 71,058 million EUR. * Other Current Financial Liabilities: 45,014 -> 71,844 million EUR. * Total explicit financial liabilities increased from ~101.5 billion EUR to ~142.9 billion EUR. **3. Calculate Leverage Trend:** * **2021 Leverage Proxy:** Debt (~101.5B) / EBITDA (18.0B) ≈ 5.6x. (Using total liabilities would be higher, but the trend is what matters). * **2022 Leverage Proxy:** Debt (~142.9B) / EBITDA (-5.0B). The ratio is negative and mathematically "infinite" or undefined in a traditional sense, indicating that earnings are insufficient to cover even a fraction of the debt. * Comparing the two years: The numerator (Debt) increased substantially, and the denominator (Earnings/EBITDA) decreased drastically into negative territory. **Conclusion:** An increase in debt combined with a collapse in earnings leads to a significant increase in the leverage ratio. In credit rating terminology, a higher leverage ratio represents a **Deteriorating** credit profile. Deteriorating