To estimate Moody’s adjusted leverage trend for A2A ENERGIA S.P.A. for the year 2022, we need to calculate the leverage ratio (Adjusted Debt / Adjusted EBITDA) for both 2021 and 2022 and compare them. Moody's typically defines leverage as Total Debt (or Adjusted Debt) divided by EBITDA (or Adjusted EBITDA). **Step 1: Determine Adjusted EBITDA** The report provides "Gross Operating Income EBITDA". * **2022 EBITDA:** 1,505,000,000 EUR * **2021 EBITDA:** 1,428,000,000 EUR Moody's often makes adjustments to EBITDA for items like pensions, share-based compensation, or non-recurring items. However, without specific adjustment details, we will use the reported EBITDA as a baseline proxy for Adjusted EBITDA, noting that the trend in operating performance is slightly positive. **Step 2: Determine Adjusted Debt** Moody's adjusted debt typically includes: 1. Total Financial Liabilities (Short-term and Long-term). 2. Plus/Minus adjustments for things like operating leases (though IFRS 16 usually capitalizes these into debt already), pension deficits, or minority interests if deemed debt-like. Let's extract the financial liabilities from the balance sheet data provided: **For 2022 (Ending Balance Sheet 2023-01-01 represents the end of fiscal year 2022):** * Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities: 5,867,000,000 EUR * Other Current Financial Liabilities: 1,022,000,000 EUR * *Note: The report lists "Total Changes In Financial Liabilities" in cash flow, but for leverage, we need the stock of debt.* * Total Financial Debt (Reported) = Noncurrent Financial Liabilities + Current Financial Liabilities * We need to be careful to exclude non-financial liabilities like trade payables and provisions. * Noncurrent Financial Liabilities: "Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities" = 5,867,000,000 EUR. (Provisions and other non-current liabilities are excluded). * Current Financial Liabilities: "Other Current Financial Liabilities" = 1,022,000,000 EUR. (Trade payables and other current non-financial liabilities are excluded). * **Total Reported Financial Debt 2022:** 5,867,000,000 + 1,022,000,000 = **6,889,000,000 EUR**. **For 2021 (Ending Balance Sheet 2022-01-01 represents the end of fiscal year 2021):** * Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities: 4,322,000,000 EUR * Other Current Financial Liabilities: 746,000,000 EUR * **Total Reported Financial Debt 2021:** 4,322,000,000 + 746,000,000 = **5,068,000,000 EUR**. *Adjustment Considerations:* Moody's might add the pension deficit to debt. * **2022 Pension Deficit:** The balance sheet shows "Noncurrent Provisions For Employee Benefits" of 248,000,000 EUR. The OCI shows a gain on remeasurement of 22,000,000 EUR net of tax. Without the gross asset/liability breakdown, we often use the provision or net defined benefit liability. Let's assume the provision is a reasonable proxy for the net liability or that adjustments are minor relative to the total debt change. * **2021 Pension Deficit:** "Noncurrent Provisions For Employee Benefits" of 294,000,000 EUR. Let's calculate simple leverage ratios using Reported Financial Debt / EBITDA. **2021 Leverage:** * Debt: 5,068,000,000 EUR * EBITDA: 1,428,000,000 EUR * Ratio: 5,068 / 1,428 ≈ **3.55x** **2022 Leverage:** * Debt: 6,889,000,000 EUR * EBITDA: 1,505,000,000 EUR * Ratio: 6,889 / 1,505 ≈ **4.58x** **Analysis of Trend:** The leverage ratio increased significantly from approximately 3.55x to 4.58x. The primary driver is the substantial increase in financial debt (from ~5.1bn to ~6.9bn), which grew by about 36%, while EBITDA only grew by about 5.4%. An increase in the leverage ratio indicates that the company is taking on more debt relative to its earnings capacity. In credit rating terminology, an increase in leverage is considered a **deteriorating** credit profile regarding leverage metrics. Therefore, the trend is Deteriorating. Deteriorating