I need to assess how much of S&P's 15% hybrid equity credit cap Ørsted should utilize. Let me analyze the key factors. ## Current Hybrid Capital Usage **Hybrid capital outstanding (end 2022):** DKK 19,793 million **Total adjusted capital calculation:** - Total equity: DKK 95,532 million - Total debt (long-term borrowings + short-term borrowings + lease liabilities): 60,451 + 2,830 + 7,697 + 569 = DKK 71,547 million - Total adjusted capital (debt + equity) ≈ DKK 167,079 million **S&P's 15% cap on equity credit:** 15% × 167,079 = ~DKK 25,062 million **Current hybrid capital as % of cap:** 19,793 / 25,062 ≈ 79% So Ørsted is already using roughly 79% of the S&P cap. ## Key Considerations **1. Business Profile - Capital Intensive Renewable Energy:** - Ørsted is a major offshore wind developer with enormous capital expenditure needs (DKK 33 billion in capex in 2022) - Construction in progress of DKK 48.9 billion indicates significant ongoing investment - The business requires long-duration, patient capital **2. Financial Profile:** - Revenue grew significantly (DKK 77.7B → 132.3B), though partly energy price driven - EBITDA of DKK 32.1 billion is healthy - Net debt has increased substantially (long-term borrowings nearly doubled from 31.5B to 60.5B) - The company is in a heavy investment phase **3. Hybrid Capital Activity:** - Active hybrid management: issued DKK 3,693M and repurchased DKK 1,945M in 2022 - Previously issued DKK 7,327M and repurchased DKK 2,971M in 2021 - This shows strategic use of the hybrid market **4. Interest Rate Environment:** - Swap rates increased dramatically in 2022 (5Y from -0.264 to 1.726) - Corporate bond spreads also widened - Sub-senior spreads increased, making hybrid issuance more expensive - The cost of hybrid financing has risen significantly **5. Credit Quality Considerations:** - State-owned entity (Danish Ministry of Finance is parent) - Strong investment-grade profile - Growing leverage due to massive offshore wind investments - Hybrid equity credit is valuable for maintaining credit ratings during heavy capex period **6. Arguments for High Utilization:** - Capital-intensive business with large ongoing investment needs - Hybrid equity credit helps maintain investment-grade ratings - Already actively using hybrids at ~79% of cap - State ownership provides implicit support but hybrids add financial flexibility - The company clearly values hybrid instruments as part of capital structure **7. Arguments Against Full Utilization:** - Rising interest rates make new hybrid issuance expensive - Sub-senior spreads have widened (2.295% average in 2022) - Higher rates reduce the cost advantage of hybrids vs. straight debt - The company has strong operating cash flows ## Assessment Ørsted is already utilizing approximately 79% of the S&P cap and actively manages its hybrid portfolio. The company has strong strategic reasons to use hybrids given its capital-intensive renewable energy business and heavy investment phase. However, the significantly higher interest rate environment in 2022 increases the cost of hybrid financing. The company benefits from state ownership and has solid cash generation. Given that: - They're already at ~79% utilization - They actively issue and manage hybrids - The business fundamentally needs the equity credit for rating purposes during heavy capex - Rising rates somewhat temper the attractiveness but don't eliminate it - The company has demonstrated commitment to hybrid instruments This suggests they should be at a high but perhaps not maximum utilization level, reflecting the balance between the strategic need for equity credit and the higher cost environment. 75%