To estimate S&P's adjusted leverage trend for Fortum Oyj in 2022, we need to calculate the Net Debt / EBITDA ratio for the years 2021 and 2022 and compare the change. **Step 1: Identify EBITDA** The report provides "Comparable Ebitda" which is often used for adjusted leverage calculations in credit analysis to smooth out volatility. * Comparable EBITDA 2021 (2021-01-01 - 2022-01-01): 2,016,000,000 EUR * Comparable EBITDA 2022 (2022-01-01 - 2023-01-01): 2,436,000,000 EUR *Note: Standard Operating Profit Before Depreciations (EBITDA) is also provided (4,913M for 2021 and 1,842M for 2022). However, S&P typically uses "Adjusted EBITDA" or "Core EBITDA" which aligns closer to "Comparable EBITDA" in this context, especially given the massive one-off items affecting the standard operating profit in 2021 (2,897M positive items affecting comparability). Using Comparable EBITDA provides a more stable baseline for trend analysis.* **Step 2: Calculate Net Debt** Net Debt is generally calculated as Total Debt (Interest-bearing liabilities) minus Cash and Cash Equivalents. * **For 2021 (Year-end 2022-01-01):** * Current Interest-bearing liabilities: * Other Current Financial Liabilities: 8,519,000,000 EUR * Current Derivative Financial Liabilities: 71,947,000,000 EUR (Derivatives are often excluded from standard debt definitions for leverage unless they are hedges of debt, but in energy trading, these are working capital. S&P usually adjusts for this. Let's look at "Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities" and "Other Current Financial Liabilities" as the primary debt components, excluding derivatives which are marked-to-market trading positions). * Let's use a standard definition: Borrowings. * Noncurrent Borrowings (Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities): 8,701,000,000 EUR * Current Borrowings (Other Current Financial Liabilities): 8,519,000,000 EUR * Total Gross Debt (excluding derivatives and margin liabilities which are operational): 8,701 + 8,519 = 17,220,000,000 EUR. * Cash and Cash Equivalents: 7,592,000,000 EUR. * Net Debt 2021 = 17,220 - 7,592 = 9,628,000,000 EUR. *Alternative Check including Derivatives?* If we include derivatives, the numbers are huge (71B + 16B). This distorts leverage for trading companies. S&P adjusts for this. We will stick to financial liabilities (borrowings). * **For 2022 (Year-end 2023-01-01):** * Noncurrent Borrowings (Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities): 3,658,000,000 EUR * Current Borrowings (Other Current Financial Liabilities): 4,127,000,000 EUR * Total Gross Debt: 3,658 + 4,127 = 7,785,000,000 EUR. * Cash and Cash Equivalents: 3,919,000,000 EUR. * Net Debt 2022 = 7,785 - 3,919 = 3,866,000,000 EUR. **Step 3: Calculate Leverage Ratios** * **Leverage 2021:** * Net Debt: 9,628 M EUR * EBITDA (Comparable): 2,016 M EUR * Ratio: 9,628 / 2,016 ≈ 4.78x * **Leverage 2022:** * Net Debt: 3,866 M EUR * EBITDA (Comparable): 2,436 M EUR * Ratio: 3,866 / 2,436 ≈ 1.59x **Step 4: Determine Trend** * Change in Ratio: 1.59x (2022) - 4.78x (2021) = -3.19x * The leverage ratio decreased significantly by approximately 3.2x. * The definition states: "if the gap of the ratio ... year on year is lower than 0.3x is improving." * Here, the gap is -3.19x. * A decrease in leverage is an improvement in credit quality. * The magnitude of the change is greater than 0.3x, and it is a reduction. The prompt phrasing "gap ... is lower than 0.3x is improving" likely refers to the algebraic value or the direction. Usually, "Improving" means leverage goes down. "Deteriorating" means leverage goes up. "Stable" means it stays within ±0.3x. * Since the leverage dropped from ~4.8x to ~1.6x, this is a massive improvement. Let's double check if "Gap ... is lower than 0.3x" implies the absolute difference. If |Ratio_2022 - Ratio_2021| < 0.3 -> Stable. If Ratio_2022 < Ratio_2021 - 0.3 -> Improving. If Ratio_2022 > Ratio_2021 + 0.3 -> Deteriorating. Here: 1.59 < 4.78 - 0.3. Therefore, it is Improving. Improving