To estimate the S&P adjusted leverage trend for ERG S.p.A. in 2022, we need to calculate the Net Debt / EBITDA ratio for the fiscal years ending 2021 (data from 2021-01-01 to 2022-01-01) and 2022 (data from 2022-01-01 to 2023-01-01). **Step 1: Calculate EBITDA for both years** The report provides "Profit Loss From Operating Activities Before Interest Taxes Depreciation And Amortisation Expense" which corresponds to EBITDA. * **EBITDA 2021 (FY ending 2022-01-01):** 396,680,000 EUR * **EBITDA 2022 (FY ending 2023-01-01):** 499,430,000 EUR **Step 2: Calculate Net Debt for both years** Net Debt is typically calculated as Total Financial Liabilities minus Cash and Cash Equivalents. We need to sum Current and Non-Current Financial Liabilities and subtract Cash. *Financial Liabilities Components:* * Noncurrent Financial Liabilities at Fair Value Through Profit Or Loss * Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities * Noncurrent Lease Liabilities * Current Financial Liabilities at Fair Value Through Profit Or Loss * Other Current Financial Liabilities * Current Lease Liabilities *Cash:* * Cash And Cash Equivalents **For Year End 2021 (2022-01-01):** * Noncurrent Financial Liabilities at FVTPL: 44,763,000 EUR * Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities: 2,064,088,000 EUR * Noncurrent Lease Liabilities: 122,663,000 EUR * Current Financial Liabilities at FVTPL: 170,857,000 EUR * Other Current Financial Liabilities: 1,342,688,000 EUR * Current Lease Liabilities: 6,282,000 EUR * **Total Financial Debt:** 44,763,000 + 2,064,088,000 + 122,663,000 + 170,857,000 + 1,342,688,000 + 6,282,000 = 3,751,341,000 EUR * **Cash and Cash Equivalents:** 860,352,000 EUR * **Net Debt 2021:** 3,751,341,000 - 860,352,000 = 2,890,989,000 EUR **For Year End 2022 (2023-01-01):** * Noncurrent Financial Liabilities at FVTPL: 0 EUR * Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities: 1,751,255,000 EUR * Noncurrent Lease Liabilities: 150,955,000 EUR * Current Financial Liabilities at FVTPL: 76,644,000 EUR * Other Current Financial Liabilities: 389,716,000 EUR * Current Lease Liabilities: 6,362,000 EUR * **Total Financial Debt:** 0 + 1,751,255,000 + 150,955,000 + 76,644,000 + 389,716,000 + 6,362,000 = 2,374,932,000 EUR * **Cash and Cash Equivalents:** 392,811,000 EUR * **Net Debt 2022:** 2,374,932,000 - 392,811,000 = 1,982,121,000 EUR **Step 3: Calculate Leverage Ratios (Net Debt / EBITDA)** * **Leverage 2021:** 2,890,989,000 / 396,680,000 ≈ 7.29x * **Leverage 2022:** 1,982,121,000 / 499,430,000 ≈ 3.97x **Step 4: Determine the Trend** * Change in Leverage = Leverage 2022 - Leverage 2021 * Change = 3.97 - 7.29 = -3.32x The definition provided states: * **Stable:** Gap is between -0.3x and +0.3x. * **Improving:** Gap is lower than -0.3x (i.e., the ratio decreased significantly, indicating less debt relative to earnings). *Note: The prompt says "if the gap ... is lower than 0.3x is improving". Usually, a decrease in leverage is improving. A gap of -3.32 is mathematically lower than 0.3. In credit analysis, a significant drop in leverage is an improvement.* * **Deteriorating:** Gap is higher than 0.3x. The leverage ratio decreased from ~7.3x to ~4.0x. This is a significant reduction in leverage. The gap is -3.32x. Since -3.32 < 0.3, and a reduction in debt/EBITDA is financially "improving", the trend is Improving. Improving