To estimate the S&P adjusted leverage trend for Electricité de France (EDF) for the year 2022, we need to calculate the Net Debt / EBITDA ratio for the fiscal years ending in 2021 (period 2021-01-01 to 2022-01-01) and 2022 (period 2022-01-01 to 2023-01-01). **Step 1: Calculate EBITDA for both years** The report provides "Operating Profit Before Depreciation And Amortisation" (EBITDA). * **2021 EBITDA:** 18,005,000,000 EUR * **2022 EBITDA:** -4,986,000,000 EUR Note: S&P often uses adjusted EBITDA. However, even using the reported EBITDA, the denominator for 2022 is negative, which makes the standard leverage ratio undefined or negative in a mathematical sense, indicating extreme distress. In credit analysis, a negative EBITDA usually implies that leverage is effectively infinite or extremely high compared to a positive EBITDA year. Let's look at the components to see if there's a more stable "Adjusted EBITDA" proxy often used by rating agencies, or if we must rely on the stark contrast. Often, S&P adjusts for one-offs. Let's look at the "Profit Loss From Operating Activities" and add back Depreciation. * 2021 Op Profit: 5,225,000,000. Add D&A 10,789,000,000 = 16,014,000,000. (Close to reported EBITDA of 18,005m, difference likely due to other operating items included in EBITDA definition provided). * 2022 Op Profit: -19,363,000,000. Add D&A 11,079,000,000 = -8,284,000,000. The reported EBITDA is -4,986,000,000 EUR for 2022. This is a massive deterioration from +18,005,000,000 EUR in 2021. **Step 2: Calculate Net Debt for both years** Net Debt = Total Financial Debt - Cash and Cash Equivalents. * **For 2021 (Balance Sheet at 2022-01-01):** * Current Financial Liabilities: 45,014,000,000 EUR * Noncurrent Financial Liabilities: 56,543,000,000 EUR * Total Financial Debt = 45,014 + 56,543 = 101,557,000,000 EUR * Cash and Cash Equivalents: 9,919,000,000 EUR * **Net Debt 2021** = 101,557 - 9,919 = **91,638,000,000 EUR** * **For 2022 (Balance Sheet at 2023-01-01):** * Current Financial Liabilities: 71,844,000,000 EUR * Noncurrent Financial Liabilities: 71,058,000,000 EUR * Total Financial Debt = 71,844 + 71,058 = 142,902,000,000 EUR * Cash and Cash Equivalents: 10,948,000,000 EUR * **Net Debt 2022** = 142,902 - 10,948 = **131,954,000,000 EUR** **Step 3: Calculate Leverage Ratios** * **2021 Leverage:** Net Debt / EBITDA = 91,638 / 18,005 ≈ **5.09x** * **2022 Leverage:** Net Debt / EBITDA = 131,954 / -4,986 ≈ **-26.46x** A negative EBITDA results in a negative leverage ratio, which is not directly comparable in a linear "gap" sense for improvement/deterioration using the simple ±0.3x rule provided, but functionally represents a catastrophic deterioration in coverage. The debt increased significantly (from ~92bn to ~132bn) while the earnings capacity collapsed from positive ~18bn to negative ~5bn. Even if we assume S&P makes significant adjustments to EBITDA to normalize it (e.g., adding back exceptional items like the impact of regulated electricity prices or fuel costs which were volatile in 2022), the sheer increase in Net Debt (by ~40 billion EUR) combined with the reported operating loss suggests a massive increase in leverage. Let's consider if "Adjusted EBITDA" might remain positive. In 2022, EDF faced exceptional costs. If we look at "Revenue" (143bn) vs "Expense Fuel Energy..." (121bn) and other expenses, the core business was under severe stress. However, rating agencies often add back non-cash or exceptional regulatory impacts. Even if we generously assume an Adjusted EBITDA of, say, 10bn EUR (which would be a significant adjustment from the reported -5bn), the leverage would be 131,954 / 10,000 ≈ 13.2x. Comparing 5.09x (2021) to 13.2x (hypothetical adjusted 2022) or -26x (reported 2022): The gap is |13.2 - 5.09| = 8.11x or |-26.46 - 5.09| = 31.55x. Both gaps are significantly higher than 0.3x. An increase in the leverage ratio indicates **Deteriorating** credit quality. The definition states: "If higher [than 0.3x gap] is Deteriorating." The gap is clearly much higher than 0.3x. The leverage has worsened substantially. Deteriorating