To estimate S&P's credit trend for Veolia Environnement from 2021 to 2022, we estimate the Adjusted EBITDA, FFO, and Adjusted Debt for both years according to standard S&P guidelines, applying typical adjustments for the utilities/infrastructure sectors. **Step 1: Estimate 2021 and 2022 Adjusted EBITDA** *Formula: Adjusted_EBITDA = Operating Income + D&A + Dividends Received + Non-recurring item add-backs* - **2021:** Operating Income (before equity accounted entities) = €1,212.7m + Operating D&A & Provisions = €2,117.2m + Dividends Received = €223.1m + Restructuring/Other Operating Expense = €496.9m + Loss on Disposal of Operating Assets = €39.2m **2021 Adjusted EBITDA = €4,089.1m** - **2022:** Operating Income = €2,206.3m + Operating D&A & Provisions = €3,178.6m + Dividends Received = €128.6m + Restructuring/Other Operating Expense = €769.2m + Loss on Disposal of Operating Assets = €299.0m **2022 Adjusted EBITDA = €6,581.7m** **Step 2: Estimate 2021 and 2022 Funds From Operations (FFO)** *Formula: FFO = Adjusted_EBITDA - Cash Interest - Cash Taxes* - **2021:** €4,089.1m - €357.4m (Interest) - €285.6m (Taxes) = **€3,446.1m** - **2022:** €6,581.7m - €637.7m (Interest) - €557.4m (Taxes) = **€5,386.6m** **Step 3: Estimate 2021 and 2022 Adjusted Debt** *Formula: Adjusted_Debt = Reported Financial Debt + Leases + Concession Liabilities + 50% Hybrid Debt + Provisions (Pension/AROs) - Cash & Equivalents - Other Current Financial Assets* - **2021:** Financial Liabilities (Current + Noncurrent) = €19,086.8m Lease Liabilities = €1,708.7m Concession Liabilities = €1,757.8m Hybrid Debt (50% of €2,460.7m) = €1,230.35m Provisions = €1,876.6m Bank Overdrafts = €241.9m *Less:* Cash & Equivalents = €10,518.7m *(Note: inflated largely due to pre-funded cash raised for the Suez acquisition)* *Less:* Other Current Financial Assets = €1,521.0m **2021 Adjusted Debt ≈ €13,862.5m** - **2022:** Financial Liabilities (Current + Noncurrent) = €26,213.5m *(includes debt assumed from Suez)* Lease Liabilities = €2,152.7m Concession Liabilities = €1,923.7m Hybrid Debt (50% of €3,496.3m) = €1,748.15m Provisions = €2,844.4m Bank Overdrafts = €213.6m *Less:* Cash & Equivalents = €9,012.2m *Less:* Other Current Financial Assets = €2,213.5m **2022 Adjusted Debt ≈ €23,870.4m** **Step 4: Calculate Core Ratios and Evaluate Signals** - **Leverage (Adjusted Debt / Adjusted EBITDA):** 2021: €13,862.5m / €4,089.1m = **3.39x** 2022: €23,870.4m / €6,581.7m = **3.63x** *Change in Leverage = +0.24x. Since this is ≥ +0.2x, Signal 1 points to **Deteriorating**.* - **Cash-flow Coverage (FFO / Adjusted Debt):** 2021: €3,446.1m / €13,862.5m = **24.86%** (or 0.2486) 2022: €5,386.6m / €23,870.4m = **22.57%** (or 0.2257) *Change in Coverage = -2.29%. This sits near the -3.00% border; factoring in different interpretations of borderline debt-like items, FFO/Debt consistently points towards negative coverage tightening (Deteriorating/Stable bias).* **Conclusion:** With the formal closure of the massive Suez acquisition in January 2022, Veolia assumed significant target liabilities and depleted pre-funded cash bases, driving up its net debt structure at a faster rate than the incoming growth in earnings and cash flow generation. The distinct increase in ratio-based leverage strictly adheres to S&P’s deteriorating benchmarks. Deteriorating