Let’s work through this step by step, focusing on Ørsted’s financial profile, funding needs, rating considerations, and the framework provided. --- ### 1. **Sector and business risk profile** Ørsted is a Danish renewable energy company — primarily offshore wind. Under S&P methodology, it falls under **Unregulated Power and Gas**: - It benefits from long-term CfDs and PPAs (strongly protected revenue). - Large-scale, well-diversified geographically, with technological advantage in offshore wind. - Competitive position likely assessed as **strong/adequate**. - It may qualify for **medial volatility** given high proportion of protected revenues, strong market position, and low country risk (Denmark). --- ### 2. **Key financial metrics (2022)** - **Revenue**: DKK 132.3bn (+70% YoY), reflecting high power prices and growth. - **EBITDA**: DKK 32.1bn (margin ~24%). - **Net profit**: DKK 15.0bn. - **Total equity**: DKK 95.5bn, including **hybrid capital** of DKK 19.8bn (~20.7% of total equity). - **Total debt (long-term borrowings + short-term borrowings)**: DKK 63.3bn. - **Cash**: DKK 16.2bn. --- ### 3. **Hybrid capital position** - Ørsted already has **DKK 19.8bn (~€2.66bn)** in hybrids, which is **~20.7% of total equity** — already above S&P’s 15% equity credit cap on total adjusted capital. - In 2022, hybrids increased by ~DKK 1.8bn net (new issuance minus repurchases). - Profit attributable to hybrid holders: DKK 577m, with coupon payments of DKK 529m — cost broadly in line with prior year. --- ### 4. **Financial risk profile** - **FFO to debt** (rough proxy): - EBITDA – interest – tax ≈ 32.1 – 18.1 – 2.6 = ~11.4bn. - Debt (adjusted) ≈ 63.3bn → FFO/debt ~18% — strong for the sector. - **Net debt to EBITDA**: (63.3 – 16.2) / 32.1 ≈ 1.47x — very low. - **Interest cover**: EBITDA / net interest ≈ 32.1 / (18.1 – 15.5) ≈ 12x — strong. - The balance sheet is already equity-heavy and has significant hybrid content. --- ### 5. **Funding needs** - **Capex**: DKK 33bn in 2022, partially offset by asset disposal proceeds (~DKK 24bn). - **Operating cash flow**: DKK 11.9bn — solid but not enough to fully fund capex. - **Dividends**: DKK 5.7bn proposed. - Net debt issuance and hybrid activity covered the gap. - Ørsted has a very large growth pipeline (offshore wind, hydrogen), so capex will remain high or increase going forward. --- ### 6. **Market context and cost of hybrid** - 5-year DKK swap rates moved from negative to ~1.7% in 2022; corporate bond yields rose. - iBoxx EUR non-financial IG yield ~2.3% in 2022. - Hybrid cost elevated vs. senior debt, but still manageable. --- ### 7. **Rationale for hybrid issuance level** Given: - Already **~20.7% hybrid** in total equity, meaning new issuance would exceed 15% cap for equity credit. - Very strong credit metrics — no immediate downgrade risk. - Moderate need for leverage optimization — FFO/debt is comfortable. - Cost of incremental hybrid likely higher than existing average cost of debt. - High capex but manageable with current cash flows + asset recycling + senior debt. The case for additional hybrid issuance beyond **minor replacement of maturing hybrids** is limited. Adding more hybrids would not improve rating headroom (already capped), and would increase cost of debt without material benefit. A **3.75%** level (i.e., maintaining or slightly trimming the hybrid stock relative to adjusted capital) would reflect: - Retention of some hybrid capacity for rating stability. - Moderate funding needs. - Mild leverage optimization. --- 3.75%