I'll work through this step-by-step, analyzing Ørsted A/S and applying the appropriate S&P methodology. ## Step 1: Identify Relevant Industry Ørsted A/S is a Danish renewable energy company, primarily engaged in offshore wind power generation, onshore wind, solar, and bioenergy. Based on the provided methodologies: - **Regulated Utilities**: Not primarily applicable - Ørsted is not a traditional rate-regulated utility - **Oil and Gas E&P**: Not applicable - **Unregulated Power And Gas**: **Most applicable** - Ørsted operates as an unregulated power generator, primarily renewable energy with long-term PPAs and merchant exposure - **Transportation Infrastructure**: Not applicable Ørsted fits best in **Unregulated Power And Gas**, specifically as a renewable generation company with a mix of regulated-like revenue (through long-term PPAs/feed-in tariffs) and merchant exposure. ## Step 2: Estimate 2021 Adjusted_EBITDA From the data: - "Profit Loss From Operating Activities Before Interest Taxes Depreciation And Amortisation Expense" 2021: 24,296,000,000 DKK This is reported EBITDA. Let me check for adjustments needed per S&P Unregulated Power and Gas methodology: Looking at the data for adjustments: - Leases: Need to add back operating lease expense if capitalized. We have lease liabilities but no explicit operating lease expense in P&L. The "Payments Of Lease Liabilities Classified As Financing Activities" 2021: 520,000,000 DKK suggests finance leases already in debt. - Nonrecurring items: Need to examine "Other Income" and "Other Expense By Nature" 2021 Other Income: 10,185,000,000 DKK 2021 Other Expense By Nature: 386,000,000 DKK Other Income is very large - likely includes gains on disposals, fair value adjustments, or other non-recurring items. For S&P, we need to normalize. Looking at "Gains Losses On Disposals Of Investments" 2021: -742,000,000 DKK (loss) The large Other Income likely includes significant non-recurring elements. However, without detailed breakdown, I'll use reported EBITDA as base and make reasonable adjustments. Actually, let me reconstruct more carefully. For renewable generators, S&P focuses on sustainable operating cash flows. The "Other Income" of 10.2bn is substantial vs revenue of 77.7bn. Given Ørsted's business model (development and sale of wind farms), gains on farm sales are recurring business activity but can be lumpy. For credit analysis, S&P would likely want to normalize. However, following the baseline formula strictly: - EBITDA (reported): 24,296,000,000 - Adjust for leases: The "Payments Of Lease Liabilities" are financing activities, suggesting IFRS 16 already applied. No additional lease adjustment needed. - Nonrecurring: Hard to identify precisely. "Other Expense By Nature" 386m is relatively small. "Gains Losses On Disposals Of Investments" is -742m (loss, so would add back if nonrecurring). Let me use reported EBITDA as starting point and adjust for known items: - Add back: losses on disposals (if nonrecurring): 742,000,000 - But we need to check if Other Income contains nonrecurring gains to subtract Given complexity and lack of detailed breakdown, I'll use **reported EBITDA with minimal adjustments** as the most defensible approach, noting that Ørsted's "Other Income" likely includes recurring elements (government incentives, capacity payments, etc.). **2021 Adjusted_EBITDA = 24,296,000,000 DKK** (using reported EBITDA, with limited ability to normalize without more detail) Actually, let me reconsider: "Profit Loss From Operating Activities Before Interest Taxes Depreciation And Amortisation Expense" is clearly EBITDA. For S&P purposes, we should adjust for nonrecurring if identifiable. Looking more carefully: "Gains Losses On Disposals Of Investments" 2021: -742,000,000 - this is already below EBITDA line (in "Profit Loss Before Tax" calculation). So EBITDA already excludes this. Let me verify: Operating profit (EBIT) 2021 = 16,195,000,000. Add D&A 8,101,000,000 = 24,296,000,000 EBITDA. Yes. The "Other Income" 10,185,000,000 and "Other Expense By Nature" 386,000,000 are already in EBITDA. For S&P, significant nonrecurring gains in Other Income should be excluded. But without knowing the composition, I'll use reported EBITDA with a conservative approach. **2021 Adjusted_EBITDA = 24,296,000,000 DKK** ## Step 3: Estimate 2021 FFO FFO = Adjusted_EBITDA - cash_interest - cash_taxes From cash flow statement: - "Interest Paid Classified As Operating Activities" 2021: 3,985,000,000 DKK - "Income Taxes Paid Classified As Operating Activities" 2021: 1,380,000,000 DKK **2021 FFO = 24,296,000,000 - 3,985,000,000 - 1,380,000,000 = 18,931,000,000 DKK** ## Step 4: Estimate 2021 Adjusted_Debt From balance sheet 2022-01-01 (end 2021): - "Longterm Borrowings": 31,502,000,000 DKK - "Shortterm Borrowings": 19,493,000,000 DKK - Total reported debt = 50,995,000,000 DKK Add: - "Noncurrent Lease Liabilities": 6,812,000,000 DKK - "Current Lease Liabilities": 720,000,000 DKK - Total leases = 7,532,000,000 DKK Hybrid debt treatment: "Hybrid Capital" = 17,984,000,000 DKK. Per S&P, typically 50% equity treatment for hybrid capital, so 50% debt = 8,992,000,000 DKK Other debt-like items: - "Noncurrent Derivative Financial Liabilities": 17,464,000,000 (these are mark-to-market, not debt-like obligations per se) - "Current Derivative Financial Liabilities": 32,325,000,000 (similarly, trading derivatives) For unregulated power and gas with significant trading/hedging activity, derivative liabilities are typically not treated as debt-like unless they represent structural hedges. Given Ørsted's business, these are likely normal operations. Pension deficit: Not explicitly stated. "Noncurrent Provisions" 15,124,000,000 may include some pension, but unclear. Eligible cash: "Cash" 2022-01-01 = 8,624,000,000 DKK Adjusted_Debt = (50,995,000,000 + 7,532,000,000 + 8,992,000,000) - 8,624,000,000 = 58,895,000,000 DKK Wait - let me recheck: 50,995 + 7,532 + 8,992 = 67,519; minus 8,624 = 58,895,000,000 **2021 Adjusted_Debt = 58,895,000,000 DKK** ## Step 5: Calculate 2021 Adjusted_Debt / Adjusted_EBITDA 58,895,000,000 / 24,296,000,000 = **2.42x** ## Step 6: Calculate 2021 FFO / Adjusted_Debt 18,931,000,000 / 58,895,000,000 = **0.321** or 32.1% ## Step 7: Estimate 2022 Adjusted_EBITDA 2022 reported EBITDA: 32,057,000,000 DKK **2022 Adjusted_EBITDA = 32,057,000,000 DKK** ## Step 8: Estimate 2022 FFO - "Interest Paid Classified As Operating Activities" 2022: 8,548,000,000 DKK - "Income Taxes Paid Classified As Operating Activities" 2022: 1,263,000,000 DKK **2022 FFO = 32,057,000,000 - 8,548,000,000 - 1,263,000,000 = 22,246,000,000 DKK** ## Step 9: Estimate 2022 Adjusted_Debt From balance sheet 2023-01-01 (end 2022): - "Longterm Borrowings": 60,451,000,000 DKK - "Shortterm Borrowings": 2,830,000,000 DKK - Total reported debt = 63,281,000,000 DKK Add: - "Noncurrent Lease Liabilities": 7,697,000,000 DKK - "Current Lease Liabilities": 569,000,000 DKK - Total leases = 8,266,000,000 DKK Hybrid debt: 50% of "Hybrid Capital" 19,793,000,000 = 9,896,500,000 DKK Eligible cash: "Cash" 2023-01-01 = 16,178,000,000 DKK Adjusted_Debt = (63,281,000,000 + 8,266,000,000 + 9,896,500,000) - 16,178,000,000 = 65,265,500,000 DKK **2022 Adjusted_Debt = 65,265,500,000 DKK** ## Step 10: Calculate 2022 Adjusted_Debt / Adjusted_EBITDA 65,265,500,000 / 32,057,000,000 = **2.04x** ## Step 11: Calculate 2022 FFO / Adjusted_Debt 22,246,000,000 / 65,265,500,000 = **0.341** or 34.1% ## Step 12: Classify Year-on-Year Credit Trend **Signal 1: Leverage (Adjusted_Debt / Adjusted_EBITDA)** - 2021: 2.42x - 2022: 2.04x - Change: 2.04 - 2.42 = **-0.38x** - Threshold: ≤ -0.2x is Improving - **Signal 1: Improving** (change of -0.38x, well beyond -0.2x threshold) **Signal 2: Cash-flow coverage (FFO / Adjusted_Debt)** - 2021: 0.321 - 2022: 0.341 - Change: 0.341 - 0.321 = **+0.020** - Threshold: ≥ +0.03 is Improving, between -0.03 and +0.03 is Stable - **Signal 2: Stable** (+0.020 is between -0.03 and +0.03) **Combining signals:** - Signal 1: Improving - Signal 2: Stable Per instructions: "If one is Stable and the other is Improving or Deteriorating, return the non-Stable category." Therefore: **Improving** However, let me double-check my calculations, particularly the debt figures, as this is crucial. Rechecking 2021 debt: - Long-term borrowings 2022-01-01: 31,502,000,000 - Short-term borrowings 2022-01-01: 19,493,000,000 - Total: 50,995,000,000 ✓ Rechecking 2022 debt: - Long-term borrowings 2023-01-01: 60,451,000,000 - Short-term borrowings 2023-01-01: 2,830,000,000 - Total: 63,281,000,000 ✓ The shift from short-term to long-term is notable and positive for maturity profile. Rechecking hybrid: 2021 = 17,984,000,000 × 50% = 8,992,000,000; 2022 = 19,793,000,000 × 50% = 9,896,500,000 ✓ Rechecking cash: 2021 end = 8,624,000,000; 2022 end = 16,178,000,000 ✓ The leverage improvement is substantial (-0.38x), driven by: 1. EBITDA growth (+32%) 2. Debt increase more modest (+11% in total adjusted debt) 3. Cash increase significantly FFO coverage improvement is modest (+2 percentage points), staying in "Stable" range, because: - EBITDA grew 32% - But interest paid more than doubled (from 3.985bn to 8.548bn), reflecting higher rates and/or higher debt - Taxes paid decreased slightly The interest increase is concerning but offset by EBITDA growth. Given the substantial leverage improvement (-0.38x vs -0.2x threshold) and modest FFO improvement (stable but directionally positive), the "Improving" classification from Signal 1 should dominate per the rules. Improving