I'll work through this step-by-step, analyzing EDF's financial data and applying S&P's methodology. ## Step 1: Identify Relevant Industry EDF (Électricité de France) is primarily a **regulated utility** with significant **unregulated power and gas** operations, and also has **nuclear generation** characteristics. Given the data shows: - Nuclear generation back-end provisions (€56B+) - French public electricity distribution concessions - Revenue from energy sales with fuel/energy costs - Significant regulatory framework elements EDF fits primarily as a **Regulated Utility** with substantial unregulated/market-exposed generation. I'll apply the Regulated Utilities methodology as primary, with awareness of unregulated power elements. ## Step 2: Estimate 2021 Adjusted_EBITDA From the data: - "Operating Profit Before Depreciation And Amortisation" 2021: €18,005,000,000 EUR This is essentially EBITDA. Let me verify by reconstructing: - Revenue 2021: €84,461,000,000 - Expense Fuel Energy And Transmission Charges 2021: €44,299,000,000 - Other External Services And Other Work Performed By Entity And Capitalised 2021: €8,595,000,000 - Employee Benefits Expense 2021: €14,494,000,000 - Tax Expense Other Than Income Tax Expense 2021: €3,330,000,000 - Other Operating Income And Expenses Included In Ebe 2021: €4,262,000,000 Operating Profit Before D&A = Revenue - Operating Expenses + Other Operating Income = 84,461 - 44,299 - 8,595 - 14,494 - 3,330 + 4,262 = €18,005M ✓ For regulated utilities, S&P notes they focus on "economics and actual cash flow generation" and don't adjust GAAP/IFRS figures for regulatory accounting effects. Key adjustments to consider per S&P methodology: - **Pension adjustments**: Need to check if pension-related items exist. The data shows "Noncurrent Provisions For Employee Benefits" of €21,716M (2022) and significant defined benefit remeasurements in OCI. However, for EBITDA/EBIT, pension expenses are typically already in Employee Benefits Expense. - **Joint ventures**: "Share Of Profit Loss Of Associates And Joint Ventures" is €644M - this is below EBITDA line, so doesn't affect EBITDA directly. - **Nonrecurring items**: "Other Income And Expenses Excluded From Ebe" 2021: €1,123M - this is excluded from EBE (Earnings Before Extraordinary items), suggesting it may be nonrecurring or exceptional. Looking more carefully at S&P's approach: For regulated utilities, they focus on cash flow economics. The "Operating Profit Before Depreciation And Amortisation" is the starting point. However, I need to consider: "Net Changes In Fair Value On Energy And Commodity Derivatives Excluding Trading Activities" 2021: -€215M. This is likely part of operating results but could be mark-to-market noise. For **2021 Adjusted_EBITDA**, I'll use: - Operating Profit Before Depreciation And Amortisation: €18,005M - Add back: Depreciation And Amortisation Expense: €10,789M (wait - this is already BEFORE depreciation, so no) Actually, "Operating Profit Before Depreciation And Amortisation" = EBITDA as reported. Per S&P regulated utilities methodology, I should consider: - Add nonrecurring losses, subtract nonrecurring gains - Pension adjustments if material to cash flow Looking at "Other Income And Expenses Excluded From Ebe" 2021: €1,123M. This is "excluded from EBE" meaning it's exceptional/non-operating. For S&P purposes, this might need normalization. But actually, for regulated utilities, S&P states: "our financial analysis focuses on the economics and actual cash flow generation." The EBITDA figure already reflects actual economics. Let me check if there are lease adjustments needed. The data doesn't explicitly show lease liabilities. For **2021 Adjusted_EBITDA = €18,005,000,000** (using reported EBITDA, as no major adjustments are clearly required by the data provided; the "excluded from EBE" items are below this line) Wait - let me re-read: "Other Income And Expenses Excluded From Ebe" - this suggests these are items excluded from the EBE calculation, meaning they might be added back or treated separately. Looking at the structure, this seems to be a separate line item. Actually, re-examining: The "Operating Profit Before Depreciation And Amortisation" is explicitly given. For S&P, this is the starting point. I'll use this as base EBITDA and make minimal adjustments unless clearly warranted. Let me check "Impairment Loss Reversal Of Impairment Loss Recognised In Profit Or Loss" 2021: €653M. This is a reversal/gain that might be nonrecurring. Adjusted_EBITDA 2021 = 18,005 + 0 (leases unclear) + 0 (nonrecurring losses) - 653 (nonrecurring gain, impairment reversal) ± 0 (pension - already in employee benefits) = **€17,352,000,000** Actually, let me reconsider: impairment reversals are typically nonrecurring. But in utility regulatory accounting, some impairments/reversals may be part of normal regulatory adjustments. Given S&P doesn't adjust for regulatory accounting, I'll be conservative. Let me use a simpler approach: **Adjusted_EBITDA 2021 = €18,005,000,000** (reported EBITDA), with minimal adjustments since data doesn't clearly show material lease obligations or items requiring adjustment per S&P methodology. But wait - I need to check if "Other Operating Income And Expenses Included In Ebe" contains nonrecurring items. This is "included in EBE" so it's part of normal operations. Let me reconsider with more care. S&P says for regulated utilities: "we do not adjust GAAP earnings or balance-sheet figures to remove the effects of regulatory accounting." However, they do make adjustments for: leases, pension deficit, guarantees, hybrid debt, etc. for debt. For EBITDA, the formula includes pension adjustments and other normalization. Given the complexity and data limitations, I'll use: **2021 Adjusted_EBITDA = €18,005,000,000** (reported Operating Profit Before D&A) Actually, I realize I should check if we need to add back the "Other Income And Expenses Excluded From Ebe" or treat it differently. Looking at the flow: - Operating Profit Before Depreciation And Amortisation: €18,005M - Then various items lead to Profit Loss From Operating Activities: €5,225M The path is: EBITDA → less D&A → less various items = Operating Profit → then other items = EBIT. Let me trace: 18,005 - 10,789 (D&A) = 7,216; then -215 (derivatives) + 653 (impairment reversal) + 1,123 (other excluded from EBE) = 8,777; but reported is 5,225... Actually let me check: "Profit Loss From Operating Activities" 2021: €5,225M. This should equal: EBITDA - D&A + other operating items. 18,005 - 10,789 = 7,216. Then 7,216 - 215 (derivatives) + 653 (impairment) + 1,123 (other) = 8,777. This doesn't match 5,225. Hmm, let me re-read: "Net Changes In Fair Value On Energy And Commodity Derivatives Excluding Trading Activities" is -215M (loss). "Impairment Loss Reversal" is +653M (gain). "Other Income And Expenses Excluded From Ebe" is +1,123M. Actually, I think "Other Income And Expenses Excluded From Ebe" might be net of expenses. Let me just use the explicit EBITDA figure as starting point. **2021 Adjusted_EBITDA = €18,005,000,000** ## Step 3: Estimate 2021 FFO FFO = Adjusted_EBITDA - cash_interest - cash_taxes From cash flow data: - "Net Financial Expeneses Disbursed Including Dividends Received" 2021: €588,000,000 - "Income Taxes Paid Refund" 2021: €2,276,000,000 (paid, positive means outflow) Wait, the cash flow statement shows: - "Income Taxes Paid Refund" 2021: 2,276,000,000 EUR - this is likely taxes paid (positive = cash outflow in "used in" section, but let me check context) Looking at operating cash flows: "Cash Flows From Used In Operating Activities" is positive 12,648M for 2021, meaning cash generated. The line "Income Taxes Paid Refund" with positive 2,276M in the adjustments section likely means taxes paid (outflow). Actually, looking more carefully at the structure: "Net Cash Flow From Operations Before Net Financial Expenses Disbursed And Income Taxes Paid Refund" 2021: €15,512M Then subtract: "Net Financial Expeneses Disbursed Including Dividends Received" 2021: €588M Then subtract: "Income Taxes Paid Refund" 2021: €2,276M = 15,512 - 588 - 2,276 = 12,648M ✓ matches "Cash Flows From Used In Operating Activities" So: - Cash interest paid (net financial expenses disbursed, excluding dividends received): Need to separate. The €588M includes dividends received of €467M. So net financial expenses = 588 + 467 = 1,055M? No wait, "Including Dividends Received" means the 588M is AFTER including dividends received. Actually: "Net Financial Expeneses Disbursed Including Dividends Received" = financial expenses paid minus dividends received = 588M. So financial expenses paid = 588M + 467M (dividends received classified as operating) = 1,055M? Hmm, but "Dividends Received Classified As Operating Activities" is separate at €467M. Let me re-read: "Net Financial Expeneses Disbursed Including Dividends Received" - this seems to be a net figure where dividends received are included in the calculation. Actually, I think this means: Net financial expenses disbursed (paid) = interest paid - dividends received = 588M. So interest paid = 588M + 467M = 1,055M. But wait, there's also "Financial Income On Cash And Cash Equivalents" of 38M. This is income, not expense. For FFO calculation per S&P: FFO = Adjusted_EBITDA - cash_interest - cash_taxes Cash interest: From P&L, "Interest Expense" 2021: €1,459M. But cash paid may differ. From cash flow, the "Net Financial Expeneses Disbursed Including Dividends Received" suggests actual cash outflows. Let me use: cash interest paid ≈ Interest Expense from P&L = €1,459M (approximation, as exact cash interest not separately stated) Cash taxes: "Income Taxes Paid Refund" 2021: €2,276M (this is taxes paid) FFO 2021 = 18,005 - 1,459 - 2,276 = **€14,270,000,000** Wait - I need to check if this is right. S&P's FFO formula is: FFO = Adjusted_EBITDA - cash_interest - cash_taxes. But in standard cash flow terms, FFO also includes working capital changes and other items. Actually, looking at S&P's typical approach: FFO is funds from operations, which starts from net income and adds back non-cash items, or from EBITDA subtracts cash interest and cash taxes (but before working capital changes). Let me verify with the cash flow: "Net Cash Flow From Operations Before Net Financial Expenses Disbursed And Income Taxes Paid Refund" = €15,512M. This is essentially EBITDA adjusted for non-cash items and working capital. Actually, this 15,512M includes working capital changes: "Increase Decrease In Working Capital" 2021: €1,526M (positive = source of cash). So: EBITDA 18,005 + adjustments for non-cash items and working capital = 15,512 before interest and taxes. The adjustments include: impairment reversal 653, depreciation 10,789, etc. Let me check: 18,005 + 10,789 (D&A, already in EBITDA so not added) - wait, EBITDA is before D&A so D&A is not added back. Actually "Net Cash Flow From Operations Before Net Financial Expenses Disbursed And Income Taxes Paid Refund" is calculated as: Profit Loss From Continuing Operations: 4,829M + Adjustments For Impairment: 653M + Depreciation And Amortisation Expense Provisions And Fair Value Gains Losses: 10,488M + Net Financial Income Or Expense: -89M + Dividends Received: 467M + Adjustments For Losses Gains On Disposal: -67M + Adjustments For Income Tax Expense: 1,401M + Adjustments For Undistributed Profits Of Associates: 644M + Increase Decrease In Working Capital: 1,526M = let's check: 4,829 + 653 + 10,488 - 89 + 467 - 67 + 1,401 + 644 + 1,526 = 19,852? Not 15,512. Hmm, let me recalculate: 4,829 + 653 = 5,482; +10,488 = 15,970; -89 = 15,881; +467 = 16,348; -67 = 16,281; +1,401 = 17,682; +644 = 18,326; +1,526 = 19,852. Doesn't match 15,512. I think I need to re-read the items. "Depreciation And Amortisation Expense Provisions And Fair Value Gains Losses" = 10,488M. But D&A expense was 10,789M. The difference may be provisions and fair value. Actually, looking more carefully: This reconciliation starts from "Profit Loss From Continuing Operations" not "Profit Loss From Operating Activities". So it includes financing and other items. Let me try: Profit Loss From Continuing Operations 2021: 4,829M + D&A etc. 10,488M + adjustments = 15,512 before interest/tax Actually I think the 15,512 is after some adjustments. Let me just use the explicit formula. For S&P FFO: Starting from Adjusted_EBITDA, subtract cash interest and cash taxes. Cash interest: I'll use the cash flow figure. "Net Financial Expeneses Disbursed Including Dividends Received" = 588M. If we gross up to exclude dividends received (467M), the net financial expense disbursed = 588M + 467M = 1,055M. But this includes interest income. From P&L, "Finance Income Cost" = 360M (positive = net income). "Interest Expense" = 1,459M. "Discount Effect" = -2,670M (gain). "Other Finance Income Cost" = 4,489M. This is messy. Let me use: Cash interest paid ≈ Interest Expense - interest income received. Or just use the cash flow approach. Actually, for practical purposes: FFO = EBITDA - cash interest - cash taxes. I'll use: - Cash interest paid: From "Net Financial Expeneses Disbursed Including Dividends Received" = 588M (this is net, includes dividends). But we need gross interest paid. Looking at 2022: Interest Expense 1,730M, but "Net Financial Expeneses Disbursed Including Dividends Received" = 1,003M with dividends received 590M. So interest paid ≈ 1,003M + 590M = 1,593M? But interest expense is 1,730M. Actually I think "Net Financial Expeneses Disbursed" means interest paid minus interest received, and "Including Dividends Received" means dividends are also included in the net figure. So: Net financial expenses disbursed = interest paid - interest received - dividends received = 588M. This is getting complex. Let me use a simpler approach: FFO from cash flow statement = Cash Flows From Used In Operating Activities + Cash Interest Paid + Cash Taxes Paid - Dividends Received (if classified as operating). Actually, standard S&P FFO = Net cash from operating activities + cash interest paid + cash taxes paid - dividends received (if in operating CF). From 2021: Cash Flows From Used In Operating Activities = 12,648M (positive = generated) + Net Financial Expeneses Disbursed Including Dividends Received = 588M + Income Taxes Paid Refund = 2,276M = 15,512M before these items, which matches the stated line. So FFO = 12,648 + 588 + 2,276 = 15,512? No, that's the before-interest/tax figure. Actually, S&P FFO = Cash from operations before working capital changes, or equivalently: Net income + D&A + other non-cash items - working capital changes (if using indirect method). Let me use: FFO 2021 = "Net Cash Flow From Operations Before Net Financial Expenses Disbursed And Income Taxes Paid Refund" = €15,512M? No, that's before interest and taxes. Standard FFO = EBITDA - cash interest - cash taxes + other non-cash adjustments. But 15,512 is already after non-cash adjustments (it adds back D&A etc. to net income). Actually, looking at the formula: "Net Cash Flow From Operations Before Net Financial Expenses Disbursed And Income Taxes Paid Refund" = this is essentially FFO before interest and taxes, or EBITDAR-type measure minus working capital. I think the cleanest approach is: FFO = Adjusted_EBITDA - cash_interest - cash_taxes Using: - Adjusted_EBITDA = 18,005M - Cash interest: Interest Expense from P&L = 1,459M (approximation) - Cash taxes: Income Taxes Paid = 2,276M FFO 2021 = 18,005 - 1,459 - 2,276 = **€14,270,000,000** But wait - this seems high. Let me check with cash flow: after interest and taxes, operating cash flow is 12,648M. If I add back working capital change of 1,526M, I get 14,174M. Close to 14,270M. Actually, FFO should exclude working capital changes. So: Operating CF 12,648M + working capital source 1,526M = 14,174M before working capital, then add back cash interest and cash taxes? No, operating CF already includes these. Let me recalculate: Operating CF 12,648M = FFO - working capital changes - cash interest - cash taxes? No, operating CF includes everything. Standard approach: FFO = Net income + D&A + deferred taxes + other non-cash items - gain on sale + working capital uses. Or: FFO = EBITDA - cash interest - cash taxes (this is pre-working capital). Given 14,174M from cash flow approach (12,648 + 1,526 working capital source, but actually working capital source means it added to CF, so FFO = 12,648 - 1,526 = 11,122? No that's wrong too. Let me think again: If working capital provided 1,526M of cash, then FFO (before working capital) = 12,648 - 1,526 = 11,122M? But this already includes interest and taxes paid. Actually: "Net Cash Flow From Operations Before Net Financial Expenses Disbursed And Income Taxes Paid Refund" = 15,512M. This is before interest and taxes but after working capital and other adjustments. So: 15,512 - 588 (net financial expenses) - 2,276 (taxes) = 12,648 = operating cash flow. For FFO: We want after interest but before working capital? No, FFO is typically before interest and after non-cash adjustments. Let me use S&P's definition more carefully. S&P FFO = Funds from operations = Net income from continuing operations + depreciation + amortization + deferred income taxes + other non-cash items. From 2021: Profit Loss From Continuing Operations = 4,829M + Depreciation And Amortisation Expense = 10,789M + Adjustments For Impairment Loss Reversal = -653M (reversal, so subtract) + other non-cash = ? Or using the cash flow reconciliation items: Profit Loss From Continuing Operations: 4,829 + Depreciation And Amortisation Expense Provisions And Fair Value: 10,488 + Net Financial Income Or Expense: -89 + Adjustments For Losses Gains On Disposal: -67 + Adjustments For Income Tax Expense: 1,401 + Adjustments For Undistributed Profits Of Associates: 644 = 17,206M? Then + working capital 1,526 = 18,732? Not matching. I think the 10,488M includes more than just D&A. Let me just use: FFO ≈ 15,512M - cash interest portion + some adjustments. Given complexity, let me use a practical approach: **FFO 2021 = €14,270,000,000** from EBITDA - cash interest - cash taxes, recognizing this is approximate. Actually, let me recalculate using the explicit S&P formula with better interest estimate: From cash flow: "Net Financial Expeneses Disbursed Including Dividends Received" = 588M. This suggests actual cash outflow for financial expenses net of dividends received. If dividends received were 467M, then gross financial expenses paid = 588 + 467 = 1,055M. But this includes interest received. From P&L: Finance Income Cost = 360M (positive = net income), Interest Expense = 1,459M, so net interest expense = 1,459 - interest income. If net financial income is 360M, then interest income - other finance costs = 360M + 1,459M? Actually "Finance Income Cost" 2021: 360M. "Interest Expense": 1,459M. "Discount Effect": -2,670M (gain). "Other Finance Income Cost": 4,489M. So Finance Income Cost = Interest Expense + Discount Effect + Other Finance Income Cost = 1,459 - 2,670 + 4,489 = 3,278? But reported is 360. Doesn't match. Hmm, maybe signs are different. Let me try: 1,459 + (-2,670) + 4,489 = 3,278. Still not 360. Actually, looking at signs: "Discount Effect" 2021: -2,670,000,000 EUR. The negative sign might indicate a gain (income). "Other Finance Income Cost" 2021: 4,489,000,000 EUR - positive might be income. So: Interest Expense (expense, positive) 1,459 + Discount Effect (income, negative) -2,670 + Other Finance Income Cost (income, positive) 4,489 = 1,459 - 2,670 + 4,489 = 3,278? But Finance Income Cost is 360. Maybe "Other Finance Income Cost" is actually a cost (expense). Let me try: 1,459 - 2,670 - 4,489 = -5,700? No. I think the signs in the data are indicating direction of impact on profit. Let me just use absolute values: Finance Income Cost = 360M total net finance income. For cash purposes: I'll use Interest Expense as proxy for cash interest paid = **€1,459,000,000** FFO 2021 = 18,005 - 1,459 - 2,276 = **€14,270,000,000** ## Step 4: Estimate 2021 Adjusted_Debt Adjusted_Debt = reported_debt + leases + pension_deficit + guarantees + hybrid_debt_portion + other_debt_like_items - eligible_cash From balance sheet 2022-01-01 (end of 2021): - Need to find debt items. Looking at liabilities: - "Special French Public Electricity Distribution Concession Liabilities" 2022-01-01: €48,853,000,000 - "Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities" 2022-01-01: €56,543,000,000 - "Other Current Financial Liabilities" 2022-01-01: €45,014,000,000 These are financial liabilities. But what is "debt" specifically? Also: "Noncurrent Provisions For Employee Benefits" 2022-01-01: €21,716,000,000 - this includes pension obligations. For regulated utilities, S&P makes specific adjustments. Let me identify: - Reported debt: Need to find borrowings/debt specifically. From cash flow: "Proceeds From Borrowings Classified As Financing Activities" and "Repayments Of Borrowings Classified As Financing Activities". Also "Proceeds From Issue Of Subordinated Liabilities And Convertible Instruments". From balance sheet, financial liabilities likely include: - Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities: 56,543M - Other Current Financial Liabilities: 45,014M - Less: maybe derivatives, trade payables, etc. Actually, looking more carefully: "Trade And Other Current Payables" is separate at 19,565M. So "Other Current Financial Liabilities" 45,014M likely includes debt. Also: "Special French Public Electricity Distribution Concession Liabilities" - these are concession liabilities, may be debt-like. For S&P purposes, debt typically includes: - All interest-bearing liabilities - Bank overdrafts - Current portion of long-term debt - Notes payable - Finance lease obligations - Preferential shares (if debt-like) - Hybrid instruments (portion treated as debt) From the data, I need to estimate. Let me look at total financial liabilities: - Noncurrent: Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities 56,543M - Current: Other Current Financial Liabilities 45,014M Total financial liabilities: 101,557M But this may include derivatives, fair value items, etc. Also: "Provisions Related To Nuclear Generation Back End Of The Nuclear Cycle Plant Decommissioning And Last Cores" 2022-01-01: €62,067,000,000. These are nuclear decommissioning provisions - debt-like per S&P? Actually, these are regulatory liabilities, may be treated differently. For S&P regulated utilities: "we deconsolidate securitized debt (and associated revenue and expense) that has been accorded specialized recovery provisions." But nuclear provisions are different. Let me try a different approach. From cash flow financing activities: - Proceeds From Borrowings: 6,943M - Repayments: 5,161M - Subordinated liabilities issued: 1,235M This suggests gross borrowings. But year-end debt? Actually, looking at "Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities" change from 2022-01-01 to 2023-01-01: 56,543M to 71,058M. "Other Current Financial Liabilities": 45,014M to 71,844M. For S&P, Adjusted_Debt typically includes: - Short-term debt + Current portion of long-term debt + Long-term debt + Subordinated debt + Hybrid securities (debt portion) + Lease liabilities + Pension deficit + Guarantees - Cash and equivalents From data: - Cash And Cash Equivalents 2022-01-01: 9,919,000,000 - Other Current Financial Assets (may include liquid investments): 39,937,000,000 For "eligible cash", S&P typically subtracts only cash and highly liquid investments that are readily available to pay down debt. Let me estimate reported debt. From the financing cash flows, we can infer debt activity. But for year-end debt, I need balance sheet figures. Looking at typical EDF structure: "Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities" and "Other Current Financial Liabilities" include bonds, bank loans, etc. The "Special French Public Electricity Distribution Concession Liabilities" may be regulatory liabilities. Let me estimate total debt as: - Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities: 56,543M - Other Current Financial Liabilities: 45,014M - Less: derivatives, other non-debt items? Actually, for practical purposes, let me use total financial liabilities as proxy for gross debt, then adjust. But I need to be more precise. Let me look at what S&P typically includes for utilities: - Debt on balance sheet (short-term + long-term) - Capitalized leases - Pension deficit (if any) - Guarantees to third parties - Hybrid securities (debt portion) - Less: cash and cash equivalents From data 2022-01-01: - Cash: 9,919M - Current financial assets: 39,937M (may include some liquid items) - Noncurrent financial assets: 55,609M For eligible cash, I'll use: Cash And Cash Equivalents + perhaps some current financial assets. Actually, looking at "Other Current Financial Assets" 2022-01-01: 39,937M and 2023-01-01: 58,033M. These likely include derivatives, collateral, etc. not all eligible. Let me use conservative approach: eligible cash = Cash And Cash Equivalents = 9,919M. For debt, I need to estimate. From the cash flow, total borrowings proceeds in 2021 were 6,943M + 1,235M subordinated = 8,178M. Repayments 5,161M. Net increase 3,017M. But this doesn't tell us year-end level. Let me look at total liabilities and equity: 360,966M. Equity: 61,989M. Total liabilities: 298,977M. But this includes all liabilities - trade payables, provisions, deferred taxes, etc. For debt specifically, I'll estimate: - Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities: 56,543M - Other Current Financial Liabilities: 45,014M - Less: maybe derivatives? Actually, for EDF, a significant portion of "financial liabilities" are likely debt. Let me use: 56,543 + 45,014 = 101,557M as gross debt before adjustments. But wait - "Special French Public Electricity Distribution Concession Liabilities" 48,853M - these are concession liabilities, which under IFRS may be financial liabilities. Should these be included? For S&P regulated utilities, they may treat concession liabilities differently. But typically, these are debt-like obligations. Let me include them: Gross debt = 101,557 + 48,853 = 150,410M? That seems high. Actually, looking at EDF's actual structure, the "Special French Public Electricity Distribution Concession Liabilities" represent the concession fee obligations for operating the distribution network. These are regulatory in nature. For S&P purposes, I'll focus on traditional debt instruments. Let me use: Reported debt = Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities + Other Current Financial Liabilities = 56,543 + 45,014 = **€101,557,000,000** But I need to check if this includes derivatives. The "Net Changes In Fair Value On Energy And Commodity Derivatives" suggests they use derivatives. These may be embedded in financial liabilities. For adjustments: - Leases: Not explicitly stated, may be in financial liabilities or other liabilities - Pension deficit: "Noncurrent Provisions For Employee Benefits" = 21,716M. But this is a provision, not necessarily a deficit. For S&P, they compare pension obligations to plan assets. Data doesn't show plan assets. - Hybrid debt: "Proceeds From Issue Of Subordinated Liabilities And Convertible Instruments" = 1,235M in 2021. These are hybrid instruments. S&P treats portion as equity, portion as debt. Given data limitations, let me use simplified approach: Adjusted_Debt = reported_debt - eligible_cash = 101,557 - 9,919 = 91,638M But I need to add pension-related items if material. The "Noncurrent Provisions For Employee Benefits" = 21,716M. If this represents unfunded pension obligations, S&P would add to debt. But these may be funded by plan assets. Given complexity, let me use: **Adjusted_Debt 2021 = €91,638,000,000** (financial liabilities less cash) Actually, let me reconsider. The "Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities" 56,543M and "Other Current Financial Liabilities" 45,014M likely include more than just debt. They may include derivatives, fair value liabilities, etc. For more accurate estimate, let me look at EDF's actual credit metrics. But given data, I'll proceed with this estimate. Wait - I should also consider "Provisions Related To Nuclear Generation" = 62,067M. These are nuclear decommissioning and waste management provisions. For S&P, are these debt-like? For utilities, S&P notes: "For integrated electric utilities that meet native load obligations partly by using third-party power contracts, we use our purchased power methodology to adjust measures for such contracts' debt-like obligations." Nuclear provisions are different - they're regulatory cost recovery items. Actually, for nuclear decommissioning provisions, these represent future cash outflows that are essentially debt-like. However, in regulatory frameworks, these costs are typically recoverable through rates. Given the complexity and that I don't have exact S&P adjustments for EDF, let me use a more conservative approach: **Adjusted_Debt 2021 = Financial Liabilities - Cash = (56,543 + 45,014) - 9,919 = €91,638,000,000** But let me also consider if I should include nuclear provisions. Given S&P's focus on "economics and actual cash flow generation" and that these provisions represent real future obligations, I might add portion. However, they're already reflected in regulatory asset base. Let me proceed with 91,638M but note this may understate true debt. Actually, re-reading S&P: for regulated utilities, "Where substantial seasonal working capital requirements...distort leverage measures, we adjust inventory and debt balances by netting the value of inventory against outstanding short-term borrowings." For EDF, working capital includes significant energy/commodity positions. Let me try another approach: From cash flow, "Changes In Financial Assets" 2021: 1,776M (positive, source). This suggests financial asset changes. I think my debt estimate is reasonable for this exercise. Let me use: **Adjusted_Debt 2021 = €91,638,000,000** Hmm, but this seems low for EDF. Let me check total assets: 360,966M. Typical utility leverage is 60-70% debt. Equity is 61,989M. So debt-like liabilities = 298,977M. My 91,638M is only 25% of assets, which seems low. Actually, EDF as a largely state-owned utility may have significant non-debt liabilities (provisions, payables, etc.). The "Noncurrent Provisions" = 89,225M and "Current Provisions" = 6,836M. These are substantial. For S&P debt purposes, only financial debt (borrowings) counts, not operating liabilities like trade payables or regulatory provisions. Let me verify: "Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities" + "Other Current Financial Liabilities" = 101,557M. This is likely the interest-bearing debt. But "Special French Public Electricity Distribution Concession Liabilities" = 48,853M - these may also be interest-bearing or have debt-like characteristics. Actually, under IFRS, concession liabilities are financial liabilities. So I should include them. Revised: Gross debt = 101,557 + 48,853 = 150,410M Less cash: 9,919M Adjusted_Debt = 140,491M But wait - "Special French Public Electricity Distribution Concession Liabilities" are likely already included in "Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities" or separate. Let me check: 56,543M + 48,853M = 105,396M noncurrent financial-type liabilities. Plus 45,014M current = 150,410M total. Hmm, but 48,853M is separately stated from 56,543M, so they're additive. Actually, looking at the structure: "Special French Public Electricity Distribution Concession Liabilities" is listed separately from "Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities", so they're different items. So total financial liabilities = 56,543 + 48,853 + 45,014 = 150,410M. But is all of this "debt"? The concession liabilities may be non-interest-bearing or have concessional terms. For S&P, I'll include all as debt-like obligations: **Adjusted_Debt 2021 = 150,410 - 9,919 = €140,491,000,000** This seems more reasonable for a utility of EDF's size. ## Step 5: Calculate 2021 Adjusted_Debt / Adjusted_EBITDA = 140,491 / 18,005 = **7.80x** ## Step 6: Calculate 2021 FFO / Adjusted_Debt = 14,270 / 140,491 = **0.1016** or **10.16%** ## Step 7: Estimate 2022 Adjusted_EBITDA "Operating Profit Before Depreciation And Amortisation" 2022: -€4,986,000,000 This is negative EBITDA! This is due to the energy crisis in 2022, where EDF faced massive fuel/energy costs. Let me verify: Revenue 2022: 143,476M; Expense Fuel Energy And Transmission: 121,010M; Other External Services: 9,420M; Employee Benefits: 15,236M; Tax Other Than Income: 3,163M; Other Operating Income: 367M. EBITDA = 143,476 - 121,010 - 9,420 - 15,236 - 3,163 + 367 = -4,986M ✓ For adjustments: - "Impairment Loss Reversal Of Impairment Loss Recognised In Profit Or Loss" 2022: 1,762M (gain, nonrecurring) - "Other Income And Expenses Excluded From Ebe" 2022: 687M Adjusted_EBITDA 2022 = -4,986 - 1,762 (remove nonrecurring gain) = **-€6,748,000,000**? Or keep as -4,986? Actually, for S&P, we add nonrecurring losses and subtract nonrecurring gains. The impairment reversal is a nonrecurring gain. So: Adjusted_EBITDA 2022 = -4,986 - 1,762 = **-€6,748,000,000** Wait, that's more negative. But actually, if EBITDA is already negative, and we remove a gain, it becomes more negative. This seems correct for S&P methodology - they want to normalize out nonrecurring items. But let me check: Is the impairment reversal included in the -4,986? Looking at the path to operating profit: -4,986 (EBITDA) - 11,079 (D&A) + 1,762 (impairment reversal) + 687 (other excluded from EBE) - 8,490 (derivatives) = -12,106? But "Profit Loss From Operating Activities" is -19,363M. Hmm, let me trace: EBITDA -4,986; less D&A 11,079 = -16,065; plus impairment reversal 1,762 = -14,303; plus other excluded from EBE 687 = -13,616; less derivatives 849 = -14,465? Not matching -19,363. Actually "Net Changes In Fair Value On Energy And Commodity Derivatives Excluding Trading Activities" 2022: -849M. If this is a loss, then -14,465 - 849 = -15,314? Still not -19,363. I think there are more items in the reconciliation. Let me not worry about exact path and use the explicit EBITDA figure. Given the massive negative EBITDA in 2022, this is clearly a stress year. For S&P purposes, they might consider regulatory adjustments or normalization, but per methodology, they focus on actual cash flow generation. However, for regulated utilities, S&P notes: "we may observe a clear difference between the volatility of actual reported profitability and the volatility of underlying regulatory profitability. In these cases, we could use the regulatory accounts as a proxy to judge earnings stability." But I don't have regulatory accounts. Let me use reported figures with minimal adjustments. Actually, for 2022, the massive loss is due to regulatory price caps and high energy costs. The French government imposed price caps on electricity prices, causing EDF to sell electricity below cost. For S&P assessment, they might consider this as regulatory intervention affecting financial stability. Let me use: **Adjusted_EBITDA 2022 = -€4,986,000,000** (reported, or -6,748M if adjusting for impairment reversal) Actually, let me check if impairment reversal is in EBITDA or below. "Operating Profit Before Depreciation And Amortisation" is before D&A and before impairment. So impairment is below EBITDA line. Thus EBITDA already excludes impairment reversal. So Adjusted_EBITDA 2022 = -4,986 + 0 (no nonrecurring losses to add) - 0 (no nonrecurring gains in EBITDA) = **-€4,986,000,000** Wait, I need to check if "Other Operating Income And Expenses Included In Ebe" contains nonrecurring items. It's "Included In Ebe" so part of normal EBITDA. And "Other Income And Expenses Excluded From Ebe" is below EBITDA. So **Adjusted_EBITDA 2022 = -€4,986,000,000** ## Step 8: Estimate 2022 FFO FFO = Adjusted_EBITDA - cash_interest - cash_taxes From 2022: - Interest Expense: 1,730M - "Income Taxes Paid Refund": 1,282M (positive, likely paid) But wait - with massive losses, are taxes paid or refunded? The line says "Income Taxes Paid Refund" with positive 1,282M. In context of operating cash flow, positive might mean refund received? Or paid? Looking at cash flow: "Income Taxes Paid Refund" 2022: 1,282M. In 2021 it was 2,276M. The operating cash flow is -7,425M (negative = used). From: "Net Cash Flow From Operations Before Net Financial Expenses Disbursed And Income Taxes Paid Refund" 2022: -5,140M Less: "Net Financial Expeneses Disbursed Including Dividends Received" 2022: 1,003M Less: "Income Taxes Paid Refund" 2022: 1,282M = -5,140 - 1,003 - 1,282 = -7,425M ✓ So "Income Taxes Paid Refund" is subtracted, meaning it's an outflow (taxes paid). Even in loss year, EDF paid taxes. Cash interest: Using Interest Expense 1,730M as proxy. FFO 2022 = -4,986 - 1,730 - 1,282 = **-€7,998,000,000** Or using cash flow approach: "Net Cash Flow From Operations Before Net Financial Expenses Disbursed And Income Taxes Paid Refund" = -5,140M. This is before interest and taxes. Then FFO = this - cash interest - cash taxes? No, that's double counting. Actually, -5,140M is already after working capital and other adjustments, before interest and taxes. So FFO would be: -5,140M - cash interest - cash taxes? No, FFO is before interest. Let me use: FFO = Adjusted_EBITDA - cash interest - cash taxes = -4,986 - 1,730 - 1,282 = **-€7,998,000,000** But this seems very negative. Let me check with cash flow: after interest and taxes, operating CF is -7,425M. Before working capital changes? Actually, "Net Cash Flow From Operations Before Net Financial Expenses Disbursed And Income Taxes Paid Refund" = -5,140M includes working capital changes. Working capital 2022: -8,301M (negative = use of cash). So before working capital: -5,140 - (-8,301) = 3,161M? Or -5,140 + 8,301 = 3,161M? Wait: "Increase Decrease In Working Capital" 2022: -8,301,000,000 EUR. Negative means decrease in working capital? Or cash used? In cash flow statements, negative working capital change typically means cash used (increase in receivables, decrease in payables). So: Net cash before interest/tax -5,140M = Net income + adjustments + working capital change. If working capital used 8,301M, then before working capital = -5,140 + 8,301 = 3,161M? That seems positive. Actually, standard formula: Cash flow from operations = Net income + non-cash adjustments + working capital sources. If working capital is negative (use), then: -5,140 = base + (-8,301), so base = 3,161M. This "base" would be roughly EBITDA - cash adjustments. Hmm. Given complexity, let me stick with: **FFO 2022 = -€7,998,000,000** But this uses EBITDA which is already negative. Let me also consider: with negative EBITDA, FFO will be very negative. Actually, let me recalculate using a different approach. From cash flow: "Cash Flows From Used In Operating Activities" 2022: -7,425M (used) Add back: cash interest paid + cash taxes paid = 1,003 + 1,282 = 2,285M (approximately, though 1,003 includes dividends) Add back: working capital changes = -8,301M? Actually, FFO = Operating cash flow + cash interest paid + cash taxes paid - working capital adjustments (if in operating CF). Roughly: FFO = -7,425 + 1,003 + 1,282 = -5,140M? But this is before working capital. Hmm, -5,140M matches "Net Cash Flow From Operations Before Net Financial Expenses Disbursed And Income Taxes Paid Refund". This is essentially FFO before interest and taxes, or more precisely, cash from operations before interest and taxes. For S&P FFO, we want after interest but before working capital. Or from EBITDA: -4,986 - 1,730 - 1,282 = -7,998M. Given the cash flow figure -5,140M is "before net financial expenses disbursed and income taxes paid refund", and includes working capital, it's not pure FFO. Let me use **FFO 2022 = -€7,998,000,000** as most consistent with S&P formula, though I acknowledge this is very conservative. Actually, wait. Let me re-check: "Net Financial Expeneses Disbursed Including Dividends Received" 2022: 1,003M. If this is net of dividends received (590M), then gross financial expenses = 1,593M. Using this: FFO = -4,986 - 1,593 - 1,282 = -7,861M. Similar. ## Step 9: Estimate 2022 Adjusted_Debt From 2023-01-01 (end of 2022): - Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities: 71,058M - Special French Public Electricity Distribution Concession Liabilities: 49,459M - Other Current Financial Liabilities: 71,844M - Cash And Cash Equivalents: 10,948M Gross debt-like liabilities = 71,058 + 49,459 + 71,844 = 192,361M Less cash: 10,948M **Adjusted_Debt 2022 = €181,413,000,000** This increased significantly from 2021, likely due to increased borrowings to cover losses and working capital needs. ## Step 10: Calculate 2022 Adjusted_Debt / Adjusted_EBITDA = 181,413 / (-4,986) = **-36.38x** This is negative and meaningless in ratio terms. When EBITDA is negative, the ratio is technically negative or undefined. For credit analysis, when EBITDA is negative, leverage is essentially infinite or undefined. The ratio deteriorates dramatically. ## Step 11: Calculate 2022 FFO / Adjusted_Debt = -7,998 / 181,413 = **-0.0441** or **-4.41%** ## Step 12: Classify Year-on-Year Credit Trend ### Signal 1: Leverage (Adjusted_Debt / Adjusted_EBITDA) 2021: 7.80x 2022: -36.38x (undefined, effectively infinite leverage) Change: From 7.80x to effectively infinite (negative EBITDA). This is a massive deterioration. If we try to compute: -36.38 - 7.80 = -44.18x? Actually the ratio went from positive to negative, which is worse. Since 2022 ratio is negative (meaningless), the practical interpretation is leverage went from ~7.8x to "infinite" or severely distressed. Change in ratio terms: The ratio went from 7.80x to undefined/infinite. This is clearly **Deteriorating** (well beyond +0.2x threshold). ### Signal 2: Cash-flow coverage (FFO / Adjusted_Debt) 2021: 0.1016 (10.16%) 2022: -0.0441 (-4.41%) Change: -0.0441 - 0.1016 = **-0.1457** or **-14.57 percentage points** This is well below the -0.03 threshold. **Deteriorating** ### Combining Signals Both signals agree: **Deteriorating** The magnitude is severe: - Leverage went from manageable (7.8x) to distressed (negative EBITDA, infinite leverage) - FFO coverage went from positive 10% to negative -4.4% This reflects the 2022 energy crisis where EDF was forced to sell electricity at capped prices while facing soaring wholesale energy costs, resulting in massive operating losses. The company had to increase borrowings significantly to cover losses and working capital needs. Even considering S&P's potential regulatory adjustments or normalization, the fundamental credit trend is clearly deteriorating. EDF's financial metrics worsened dramatically from 2021 to 2022 due to: 1. Negative EBITDA from price caps and high fuel costs 2. Increased debt to fund losses 3. Negative FFO generation The French government's subsequent full nationalization of EDF in 2022 (taking it private) was a direct response to this financial stress, supporting the credit profile through state ownership but not changing the underlying operational deterioration in 2022. Deteriorating