I'll work through this step-by-step.

## Step 1: Identify the relevant industry

Fortum Oyj is a Finnish energy company with significant power generation operations. Looking at the data, it has both regulated and unregulated operations, but its core business is power generation (including nuclear, hydro). Given the mix, Fortum fits primarily into **Unregulated Power and Gas** with some regulated utility elements. I'll apply the unregulated power and gas methodology primarily.

## Step 2: Estimate 2021 Adjusted_EBITDA

**2021 (fiscal year 2021-01-01 to 2022-01-01):**

Reported EBITDA = Operating Profit + D&A = 4,325 + 587 = 4,912M EUR
(This matches the reported "Operating Profit Before Depreciations Ebitda" of 4,913M, close enough)

For S&P adjustments, I need to remove items affecting comparability (non-recurring):
- Items Affecting Comparability 2021: +2,897M EUR (includes capital gains of 2,673M, fair value changes of -264M, and other adjustments of 6M, plus impairments of 35M)

The comparable EBITDA is reported as 2,016M EUR.

S&P would typically:
- Remove capital gains: -2,673M
- Remove/adjust fair value derivative changes: +264M
- Add back impairments: +35M (already in EBITDA)
- Other adjustments: -6M

Starting from reported EBITDA of 4,913M:
- Remove capital gains: -2,673M
- Add back negative fair value changes: +264M (these were gains already removed, so adjustment reverses)
- Remove other non-recurring items

Using Comparable EBITDA as a proxy for S&P Adjusted EBITDA: ~2,016M EUR

Adding pension deficit adjustments: Pension liability 2022-01-01 = 1,190M. Typical S&P pension adjustment adds ~service cost component. Without detailed pension data, I'll approximate.

For simplicity and consistency, I'll use **Comparable EBITDA ≈ 2,016M EUR** as the base for S&P Adjusted EBITDA.

**2021 Adjusted_EBITDA ≈ 2,016M EUR**

## Step 3: Estimate 2021 FFO

FFO = Adjusted_EBITDA - cash_interest - cash_taxes

- Cash interest paid: 147M EUR
- Cash taxes paid: 279M EUR

FFO = 2,016 - 147 - 279 = **1,590M EUR**

## Step 4: Estimate 2021 Adjusted_Debt

Reported financial liabilities (2022-01-01):
- Non-current financial liabilities: 8,701M
- Current financial liabilities: 8,519M
- Total reported debt: ~17,220M

However, this includes Uniper's consolidated figures. Let me focus on continuing operations.

Looking at the balance sheet more carefully at 2022-01-01:
- Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities: 8,701M
- Other Current Financial Liabilities: 8,519M
- Total financial debt: 17,220M

Pension deficit: 1,190M

S&P adjustments:
- Add pension deficit: +1,190M
- Subtract excess cash (keeping ~working capital needs): Liquid funds = 7,592M. S&P typically subtracts excess cash. Conservatively, subtract perhaps 2,000M of accessible cash.

Adjusted_Debt = 17,220 + 1,190 - 2,000 = **16,410M EUR**

## Step 5: 2021 Adjusted_Debt / Adjusted_EBITDA

16,410 / 2,016 = **8.1x**

## Step 6: 2021 FFO / Adjusted_Debt

1,590 / 16,410 = **9.7%** (0.097)

## Step 7: Estimate 2022 Adjusted_EBITDA

**2022 (fiscal year 2022-01-01 to 2023-01-01):**

Comparable EBITDA = 2,436M EUR

**2022 Adjusted_EBITDA ≈ 2,436M EUR**

## Step 8: Estimate 2022 FFO

- Cash interest paid: 201M
- Cash taxes paid: 167M

FFO = 2,436 - 201 - 167 = **2,068M EUR**

## Step 9: Estimate 2022 Adjusted_Debt

At 2023-01-01 (after major divestiture of Uniper):
- Non-current financial liabilities: 3,658M
- Current financial liabilities: 4,127M
- Total financial debt: 7,785M

Pension deficit: 13M

Adjusted_Debt = 7,785 + 13 - 1,500 (excess cash from 3,919M) = **6,298M EUR**

## Step 10: 2022 Adjusted_Debt / Adjusted_EBITDA

6,298 / 2,436 = **2.6x**

## Step 11: 2022 FFO / Adjusted_Debt

2,068 / 6,298 = **32.8%** (0.328)

## Step 12: Classify the trend

**Signal 1 - Leverage:** 2.6x - 8.1x = -5.5x → **Improving** (≤ -0.2x)

**Signal 2 - Cash flow coverage:** 0.328 - 0.097 = +0.231 → **Improving** (≥ +0.03)

Both signals agree: **Improving**

<answer>Improving</answer>