**Step 1: Identify the relevant industry for "ENGIE"** ENGIE is a global energy and services group. Its activities span electricity generation (including renewables, nuclear, and thermal), natural gas infrastructure, and energy services. * **Regulated Utilities:** ENGIE has significant regulated network activities (gas distribution in France, etc.). * **Unregulated Power and Gas:** ENGIE has significant merchant power generation and gas trading/supply activities. * **Oil and Gas E&P:** ENGIE has some upstream assets but is not primarily an E&P company. Given the mix, ENGIE is typically assessed as a diversified utility. However, the prompt provides specific methodologies for "Regulated Utilities," "Unregulated Power And Gas," and "Oil And Gas Exploration And Production." ENGIE's profile is a hybrid. In S&P's actual practice, ENGIE is often assessed using the **Regulated Utilities** methodology for its network businesses and **Unregulated Power and Gas** for its generation and supply, often resulting in a composite view or leaning towards the **Unregulated Power and Gas** volatility table if the regulated portion doesn't dominate sufficiently to qualify for the low/medial volatility tables under strict criteria, or vice versa. However, looking at the provided text, the **Regulated Utilities** section notes that if a company derives about two-thirds or more of operating cash flows from regulated operations with strong regulatory advantage, it uses the low volatility table. If it derives 50% or more from regulated activities with adequate advantage, it uses the medial table. ENGIE's regulated asset base is significant, but a large portion of its EBITDA comes from unregulated generation and supply. Let's look at the financial data to determine the most appropriate baseline adjustments. The prompt asks to estimate Adjusted EBITDA, FFO, and Adjusted Debt. For **Regulated Utilities**, S&P often adds back depreciation and amortization to EBITDA (which is standard) but may adjust for pension deficits and hybrid debt. For **Unregulated Power and Gas**, the baseline is similar but volatility tables differ. Since ENGIE is a major integrated player, we will calculate the metrics based on the standard corporate/utility reconstruction from the provided P&L and Balance Sheet items, applying typical utility adjustments (adding back non-recurring items, adjusting debt for hybrids/pensions if evident). *Note on Industry Classification for Calculation:* The calculations for EBITDA, FFO, and Debt are structurally similar across these utility sectors, with the main difference being the *volatility table* used for rating assignment, which isn't directly asked for. The question asks for the *trend* based on leverage and coverage ratios. We will proceed with standard utility-style adjustments: 1. **EBITDA Reconstruction:** Start from Operating Income, add back D&A, adjust for non-recurring items. 2. **FFO:** EBITDA - Cash Interest - Cash Taxes. 3. **Debt:** Interest-bearing debt + Hybrids (if treated as debt) - Cash. **Step 2: Estimate 2021 "Adjusted_EBITDA"** * **Reported Operating Income (Profit Loss From Operating Activities):** 6,722,000,000 EUR * **Add: Depreciation, Amortization, and Provisions:** 4,840,000,000 EUR * **Add: Share of Profit of Associates (Equity Method):** 800,000,000 EUR (Usually, EBITDA includes the share of associates' EBITDA, but since we only have the share of profit, and S&P often adds back the equity income to get to a pre-tax operating cash flow proxy or adjusts EBITDA to include proportional EBITDA of JVs. However, a simpler reconstruction from "Current Operating Income" is often preferred if available. Let's look at "Current Operating Income Including Operating Mtm And Share In Net Income Of Equity Method Entities": 6,916,000,000 EUR. This figure includes the share of equity income. * Let's reconstruct EBITDA from the top down or bottom up. * Revenue: 57,866,000,000 * Purchases & Operating Derivatives: 38,861,000,000 * Employee Benefits: 7,692,000,000 * Tax Expense Other Than Income Tax: 1,479,000,000 * Depreciation/Amortization: 4,840,000,000 * Other Income: 1,122,000,000 * Other Non-Recurring: -69,000,000 (Expense) * Impairment Reversal: 1,028,000,000 (Gain/Income) * Restructuring: 204,000,000 (Expense) * Other Income/Expense from Subsidiaries: 1,107,000,000 Let's use the "Current Operating Income Including Operating Mtm And Share In Net Income Of Equity Method Entities" as a starting point for recurring operating performance, then add back D&A and adjust for non-recurring items included/excluded. Actually, standard S&P Adjusted EBITDA calculation: EBITDA = Operating Income + Depreciation & Amortization + Impairment/Restructuring/Non-recurring adjustments. Reported "Profit Loss From Operating Activities" (2021): 6,722,000,000 EUR. This figure likely includes the share of associates (800M) and other items. Let's check the composition: Current Operating Income (incl MTM & Equity Share): 6,916,000,000 Impairment Reversal: 1,028,000,000 Other Non-Recurring: -69,000,000 Restructuring: -204,000,000 (Expense) Other Income/Exp from Subs: 1,107,000,000 Sum: 6,916 + 1,028 - 0.069 - 0.204 + 1.107 = 8,778. This is higher than 6,722. There might be other operating expenses or the "Profit Loss From Operating Activities" includes items not listed in the breakdown or the breakdown sums to a different subtotal. Let's try reconstructing EBITDA directly from Revenue and Expenses: Revenue: 57,866 - Purchases/Derivatives: 38,861 - Employee Benefits: 7,692 - Other Operating Taxes: 1,479 - Depreciation/Amortization: 4,840 + Other Income: 1,122 + Impairment Reversal: 1,028 - Restructuring: 204 - Other Non-Recurring: 69 + Other Income/Exp from Subs: 1,107 Operating Profit before D&A and specific items = 57,866 - 38,861 - 7,692 - 1,479 + 1,122 + 1,028 - 204 - 69 + 1,107 = 11,818. Add back D&A: 11,818 + 4,840 = 16,658? No, D&A was subtracted to get Operating Profit. Wait, "Profit Loss From Operating Activities" is 6,722. Let's check: 11,818 (EBITDA proxy?) - 4,840 (D&A) = 6,978. Close to 6,722 but not exact. The difference (256M) might be due to the "Share of Profit of Associates" treatment or other minor items. S&P Adjusted EBITDA typically starts with reported EBITDA and adjusts for non-recurring items. Reported EBITDA ≈ Operating Income (6,722) + D&A (4,840) = 11,562. Adjustments for 2021: - Non-recurring losses (add back): Restructuring (204), Other Non-Recurring Expense (69). Total Add: 273. - Non-recurring gains (subtract): Impairment Reversal (1,028), Other Income/Exp from Subs (1,107 - this looks like a gain, likely divestment or similar non-recurring). Total Subtract: 2,135. - Pension Adjustments: Not explicitly provided as a separate line item for adjustment, though "Employee Benefits" includes them. We will assume reported figures are close enough or no specific large deficit contribution is mandated without balance sheet pension deficit data (which we can estimate). Let's look at the Balance Sheet for Pension Deficit. "Noncurrent Provisions" and "Current Provisions" likely contain pension provisions. However, without a specific "Net Pension Deficit" line, we will stick to the P&L adjustments. Adjusted EBITDA 2021 = Reported EBITDA (11,562) + Restructuring (204) + Other Non-Recurring (69) - Impairment Reversal (1,028) - Other Income from Subs (1,107). Adjusted EBITDA 2021 = 11,562 + 273 - 2,135 = 9,700 Million EUR. *Alternative Check:* S&P often views "Current Operating Income" as a good proxy for recurring earnings. Current Operating Income (incl Equity Share) 2021: 6,916. Add D&A: 4,840. Add Share of Associates D&A? (Not available). This gives 11,756. The "Other Income/Exp from Subsidiaries" (1,107) and "Impairment Reversal" (1,028) are likely considered non-recurring or volatile. If we exclude them from the "Current Operating Income" (which seems to exclude them as they are listed separately below it in the hierarchy leading to "Profit Loss From Operating Activities"), then the base is cleaner. Let's assume the "Current Operating Income Including Operating Mtm And Share In Net Income Of Equity Method Entities" (6,916) is the recurring operating profit before D&A? No, it says "Income", so D&A is likely deducted. So Recurring EBITDA ≈ 6,916 + 4,840 = 11,756. Let's use **11,756 Million EUR** as the base Adjusted EBITDA for 2021, assuming the "Current" metric already excludes the volatile items (Impairment, Restructuring, Non-recurring, Sub income) which are listed below it in the P&L flow. **2021 Adjusted EBITDA = 11,756 Million EUR.** **Step 3: Estimate 2021 "FFO"** FFO = Adjusted EBITDA - Cash Interest - Cash Taxes. * **Cash Interest:** Finance Costs: 2,061 Finance Income: 711 Net Financial Income/Loss: -1,350 (Cost > Income) S&P uses cash interest paid. From Cash Flow Statement: "Interest Paid Classified As Financing Activities": 719 "Interest Received On Cash And Cash Equivalents": -52 (This is likely a cash inflow, presented as negative in some contexts or just a label. Usually, Interest Received is an inflow. Let's look at "Interest Received Classified As Investing Activities": 32. Total Interest Paid (Outflow): 719. Total Interest Received (Inflow): 52 + 32 = 84. Net Cash Interest = Interest Paid - Interest Received = 719 - 84 = 635. Alternatively, FFO definition often subtracts gross cash interest paid and adds cash interest received, or just subtracts net. S&P typically uses **Net Cash Interest**. Let's use Net Cash Interest = 635 Million EUR. * **Cash Taxes:** From Cash Flow Statement: "Income Taxes Paid Refund Classified As Operating Activities": 603. Note: The label says "Paid Refund". Usually, this is a net outflow. Given the Income Tax Expense in P&L is 1,695, a payment of 603 is reasonable (timing differences). Cash Taxes = 603 Million EUR. * **FFO 2021** = 11,756 - 635 - 603 = **10,518 Million EUR.** **Step 4: Estimate 2021 "Adjusted_Debt"** Adjusted Debt = Reported Debt + Hybrids + Pension Deficit - Eligible Cash. * **Reported Debt:** Long-term Borrowings: 30,458 Current Borrowings: 10,590 Total Reported Debt = 41,048 Million EUR. * **Hybrid Debt:** "Deeply Subordinated Perpetual Notes": 3,913 (from Equity breakdown "Previously Stated" or 2022-01-01 balance? The equity table shows "Deeply Subordinated Perpetual Notes Member" 2022-01-01: 3,767. Let's use the balance sheet date 2022-01-01 which corresponds to end of 2021). Value: 3,767 Million EUR. S&P typically treats 50% or 100% of hybrids as debt depending on the instrument's characteristics. For utilities, often 50% is equity credit, but let's assume standard 50% debt treatment or full debt if highly debt-like. Given the "Perpetual" nature, let's apply a 50% equity credit (i.e., 50% is debt). Debt portion of Hybrids = 3,767 * 0.5 = 1,883.5 Million EUR. * **Pension Deficit:** Not explicitly broken out. We will assume it is netted in provisions or not material enough to adjust significantly without specific data. We will omit this adjustment. * **Eligible Cash:** Cash and Cash Equivalents: 13,890 Million EUR. S&P allows deduction of unrestricted cash. * **Adjusted Debt 2021** = 41,048 (Debt) + 1,883.5 (Hybrid Debt) - 13,890 (Cash) = **29,041.5 Million EUR.** **Step 5: Calculate 2021 "Adjusted_Debt / Adjusted_EBITDA"** Ratio 2021 = 29,041.5 / 11,756 = **2.47x** **Step 6: Calculate 2021 "FFO / Adjusted_Debt"** Ratio 2021 = 10,518 / 29,041.5 = **36.2%** (or 0.362) --- **Step 7: Estimate 2022 "Adjusted_EBITDA"** * **Recurring Operating Income:** "Current Operating Income Including Operating Mtm And Share In Net Income Of Equity Method Entities" 2022: 5,367 Million EUR. Add D&A 2022: 5,187 Million EUR. Base Recurring EBITDA = 5,367 + 5,187 = 10,554 Million EUR. *Check for non-recurring items excluded from "Current":* The items below "Current Operating Income..." in the P&L are: Impairment Reversal: 2,774 (Gain) Restructuring: 230 (Expense) Other Income/Exp from Subs: 91 (Gain) Other Non-Recurring: -1,328 (Expense) Since "Current Operating Income" excludes these, our base of 10,554 is the recurring EBITDA. However, we must check if "Operating MTM" (Mark-to-Market) is included in the "Current" figure. The label says "Including Operating Mtm". MTM gains/losses on derivatives can be volatile. In 2022, energy markets were volatile. S&P often adjusts for MTM volatility if it's not cash-realized or if it distorts the view. However, without a specific breakdown of realized vs unrealized, and given the instruction to use the baseline formula, we will stick to the "Current" metric as the best proxy for recurring operations provided by the company, assuming management defines "Current" as recurring. One adjustment: The "Impairment Reversal" of 2,774 is huge. It is excluded from the "Current" line, so it is NOT in our 10,554 base. This is correct for Adjusted EBITDA (we want recurring). The "Other Non-Recurring Items" of -1,328 is also excluded. So, **2022 Adjusted EBITDA = 10,554 Million EUR.** **Step 8: Estimate 2022 "FFO"** * **Cash Interest:** Interest Paid (Financing): 822 Interest Received (Financing): -194 (Inflow) Interest Received (Investing): -37 (Inflow) Total Interest Received = 194 + 37 = 231. Net Cash Interest = 822 - 231 = 591 Million EUR. * **Cash Taxes:** Income Taxes Paid: 1,504 Million EUR. * **FFO 2022** = 10,554 - 591 - 1,504 = **8,459 Million EUR.** **Step 9: Estimate 2022 "Adjusted_Debt"** * **Reported Debt:** Long-term Borrowings: 28,083 Current Borrowings: 12,508 Total Reported Debt = 40,591 Million EUR. * **Hybrid Debt:** "Deeply Subordinated Perpetual Notes" 2023-01-01 (End of 2022): 3,393 Million EUR. Debt portion (50%) = 1,696.5 Million EUR. * **Eligible Cash:** Cash and Cash Equivalents: 15,570 Million EUR. * **Adjusted Debt 2022** = 40,591 + 1,696.5 - 15,570 = **26,717.5 Million EUR.** **Step 10: Calculate 2022 "Adjusted_Debt / Adjusted_EBITDA"** Ratio 2022 = 26,717.5 / 10,554 = **2.53x** **Step 11: Calculate 2022 "FFO / Adjusted_Debt"** Ratio 2022 = 8,459 / 26,717.5 = **31.7%** (or 0.317) --- **Step 12: Classify the credit trend** * **Signal 1: Leverage (Adjusted Debt / Adjusted EBITDA)** * 2021: 2.47x * 2022: 2.53x * Change: 2.53 - 2.47 = **+0.06x** * Threshold: Between -0.2x and +0.2x is **Stable**. * **Signal 2: Cash-flow coverage (FFO / Adjusted Debt)** * 2021: 36.2% (0.362) * 2022: 31.7% (0.317) * Change: 0.317 - 0.362 = **-0.045** (or -4.5 percentage points) * Threshold: ≤ -0.03 is **Deteriorating**. * **Combining Signals:** * Signal 1: Stable * Signal 2: Deteriorating * Rule: "If one is Stable and the other is Improving or Deteriorating, return the non-Stable category." Therefore, the trend is Deteriorating. Deteriorating