**Step 1: Identify the relevant industry for "ACEA S.P.A."** Acea S.p.A. is an Italian multi-utility company primarily engaged in the management of water, energy (electricity and gas), and environmental services (waste management). The provided methodologies include "Regulated Utilities," "Oil And Gas Exploration And Production," "Unregulated Power And Gas," and "Transportation Infrastructure." Acea fits best under **Regulated Utilities** (specifically the "Multi-utilities" subsector). Although it has unregulated components (energy trading/sales, waste), the core of its business involves network infrastructure (water distribution, electricity distribution) which is subject to regulatory oversight in Italy (ARERA). The methodology for Regulated Utilities is the most appropriate framework for assessing its credit profile, particularly regarding the stability of cash flows from its regulated asset base. **Step 2: Estimate the 2021 "Adjusted_EBITDA"** For Regulated Utilities, S&P typically uses EBITDA as a key profitability indicator. We need to reconstruct EBITDA from the provided data. * **Revenue (2021):** 3,972,061,000 EUR * **Operating Expense (2021):** 2,737,035,000 EUR * Note: Operating Expense usually includes Employee Benefits and External Costs. Let's verify: Employee Benefits (275,819,000) + External Costs (2,461,216,000) = 2,737,035,000. This matches "Operating Expense". * **Profit Loss From Operating Activities (EBIT) (2021):** 581,101,000 EUR * Check: Revenue (3,972,061,000) - Operating Expense (2,737,035,000) = 1,235,026,000. This does not match the reported Operating Profit of 581,101,000. * Let's look at the components again. * Gross Profit (2021) = 1,256,075,000 EUR. * Gross Profit = Revenue - Cost of Goods Sold (or direct costs). * Operating Profit (EBIT) = Gross Profit - Operating Expenses (SG&A, Depreciation, etc.)? * The report lists "Ammortamenti E Accantonamenti" (Depreciation and Provisions) = 588,768,000 EUR. * Let's check: Gross Profit (1,256,075,000) - Depreciation/Provisions (588,768,000) - Other Operating Expenses? * Actually, usually EBITDA = EBIT + Depreciation & Amortization. * Reported "Profit Loss From Operating Activities" (EBIT) = 581,101,000 EUR. * Reported "Ammortamenti E Accantonamenti" (Depreciation & Amortization + Provisions) = 588,768,000 EUR. * However, "Impairment Loss... IFRS9" is 86,207,000 EUR. This is often included in operating profit or separate. The text says "Impairment Loss... Determined In Accordance With IFRS9". IFRS 9 impairments are usually financial assets (receivables). These are often considered part of operating results for utilities but might be adjusted if non-recurring. Given the stable nature, we will treat standard D&A as the add-back. * Let's calculate EBITDA: * EBIT (Operating Profit) = 581,101,000 EUR * Add: Depreciation and Amortization ("Ammortamenti E Accantonamenti") = 588,768,000 EUR. * Note: "Accantonamenti" means provisions. Provisions are non-cash but not always added back to EBITDA in strict definitions unless they are non-operating. However, in utility reporting, "EBITDA" is often approximated as Operating Profit + D&A. * Let's check if there are other items. "Other Income" = 156,032,000. "Other Income Expense From Subsidiaries..." = 21,048,000. * Usually, EBITDA = Operating Profit + Depreciation + Amortization. * Adjusted EBITDA might also add back lease expenses if not capitalized, but IFRS 16 capitalizes them, so interest and depreciation are recorded. The "Right-of-use Assets" are present. S&P often adds back the operating lease expense equivalent or adjusts debt. For simplicity and consistency with the provided baseline formula `Adjusted_EBITDA = EBITDA + adjustment_leases...`, we first need Reported EBITDA. * Reported EBITDA ≈ Operating Profit + Depreciation/Amortization. * 2021 EBITDA ≈ 581,101,000 + 588,768,000 = 1,169,869,000 EUR. * **Adjustments:** * **Leases:** Under IFRS 16, rent expense is replaced by depreciation and interest. EBITDA under IFRS 16 already excludes the depreciation of ROU assets but includes the interest on lease liabilities? No, EBITDA is before interest and tax. So EBITDA includes the depreciation of ROU assets? No, EBITDA adds back depreciation. So the depreciation of ROU assets is added back. The interest on leases is below EBITDA. So Reported EBITDA is generally comparable. S&P may adjust for the "rent" equivalent if comparing to pre-IFRS 16, but typically for trend analysis, we stick to the reported structure unless specified. The baseline formula asks for `adjustment_leases`. If we assume the reported EBITDA is post-IFRS 16, no adjustment is needed for the EBITDA numerator itself regarding the *expense* classification, as the depreciation is added back. However, S&P sometimes adds back the *interest* portion to get to a "Funds From Operations" type metric, but for EBITDA, it's usually just adding back D&A. Let's assume Reported EBITDA is the starting point. * **Nonrecurring items:** The impairment loss of 86,207,000 EUR (IFRS 9) is related to trade receivables. In utilities, bad debt is often considered recurring. We will leave it in. * **Joint Ventures:** "Share Of Profit Loss Of Associates... Equity Method" = 7,798,000 EUR. This is below EBITDA (usually below Operating Profit or in Net Income). S&P often proportionally consolidates JVs for utilities to get a better view of operational scale. However, the baseline formula says `± joint_venture_proportional_EBITDA`. The data provided only gives the share of profit (net income line). We don't have the JV's revenue or EBITDA directly. Without specific JV financials, we cannot calculate proportional EBITDA. We will assume the impact is negligible or captured in the equity income line which is small (7.8M vs 1.1B EBITDA). We will proceed with the consolidated reported numbers. * **Pension:** "Utili O Perdite Attuariali" are in OCI, not P&L. No adjustment needed for EBITDA. * **2021 Adjusted EBITDA Estimate:** 1,169,869,000 EUR. **Step 3: Estimate the 2021 "FFO"** Formula: `FFO = Adjusted_EBITDA - cash_interest - cash_taxes` * **Adjusted EBITDA (2021):** 1,169,869,000 EUR * **Cash Interest:** * Reported "Finance Costs" = 97,388,000 EUR. * "Interest Paid Classified As Financing Activities" (Cash Flow Statement) = 100,752,000 EUR. * S&P prefers cash interest. We use **100,752,000 EUR**. * **Cash Taxes:** * Reported "Income Tax Expense" = 150,662,000 EUR. * "Income Taxes Paid Refund Classified As Operating Activities" = 180,117,000 EUR. * S&P prefers cash taxes. We use **180,117,000 EUR**. * **2021 FFO:** 1,169,869,000 - 100,752,000 - 180,117,000 = **889,000,000 EUR**. **Step 4: Estimate the 2021 "Adjusted_Debt"** Formula: `Adjusted_Debt = (reported_debt + leases + pension_deficit + guarantees + hybrid_debt_portion + other_debt_like_items) - eligible_cash` * **Reported Debt:** * "Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities" (2022-01-01 balance, which is end of 2021) = 4,791,979,000 EUR. * "Other Current Financial Liabilities" (2022-01-01 balance) = 285,222,000 EUR. * Total Reported Financial Debt = 4,791,979,000 + 285,222,000 = 5,077,201,000 EUR. * **Leases:** * S&P treats lease liabilities as debt. * "Right-of-use Assets" = 53,096,000 EUR. This is the asset side. The liability side is usually similar but not explicitly broken out as "Lease Liabilities" in the provided lines. However, "Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities" and "Other Current Financial Liabilities" likely contain the lease liabilities. Without a specific breakdown, and given the small size of ROU assets (~53M) relative to total debt (~5B), the adjustment is minor. We will assume the reported financial liabilities include the lease liabilities (as per IFRS 16). If we need to add them separately, we would double count. Standard practice: if debt includes lease liabilities, no add-back. If not, add them. Given "Financial Liabilities" is a broad category, it likely includes them. We will stick to the reported financial debt. * **Pension Deficit:** * "Noncurrent Provisions For Employee Benefits" = 120,150,000 EUR. * S&P often treats the underfunded portion of defined benefit plans as debt. The provision on the balance sheet represents the deficit. We add **120,150,000 EUR**. * **Eligible Cash:** * "Disponibilità Liquide E Mezzi Equivalenti" (Cash and Cash Equivalents) at 2022-01-01 (End of 2021) = 680,820,000 EUR. * S&P deducts unrestricted cash. We assume all is eligible. * Deduct **680,820,000 EUR**. * **2021 Adjusted Debt:** * Debt: 5,077,201,000 * + Pension Deficit: 120,150,000 * - Cash: 680,820,000 * Total = 5,077,201,000 + 120,150,000 - 680,820,000 = **4,516,531,000 EUR**. **Step 5: Calculate 2021 "Adjusted_Debt / Adjusted_EBITDA"** * Ratio = 4,516,531,000 / 1,169,869,000 ≈ **3.86x** **Step 6: Calculate 2021 "FFO / Adjusted_Debt"** * Ratio = 889,000,000 / 4,516,531,000 ≈ **19.68%** (or 0.197) --- **Step 7: Estimate the 2022 "Adjusted_EBITDA"** * **Revenue (2022):** 5,138,245,000 EUR * **Operating Profit (EBIT) (2022):** 565,851,000 EUR * **Depreciation & Amortization (2022):** "Ammortamenti E Accantonamenti" = 625,799,000 EUR. * **Reported EBITDA:** 565,851,000 + 625,799,000 = 1,191,650,000 EUR. * **Adjustments:** * Impairment (IFRS 9): 113,370,000 EUR. Again, likely recurring bad debt provision. No adjustment. * Leases/Pension/JV: Same logic as 2021. * **2022 Adjusted EBITDA Estimate:** **1,191,650,000 EUR**. **Step 8: Estimate the 2022 "FFO"** Formula: `FFO = Adjusted_EBITDA - cash_interest - cash_taxes` * **Adjusted EBITDA (2022):** 1,191,650,000 EUR * **Cash Interest:** * "Interest Paid Classified As Financing Activities" (2022) = 114,121,000 EUR. * **Cash Taxes:** * "Income Taxes Paid Refund Classified As Operating Activities" (2022) = 178,506,000 EUR. * **2022 FFO:** 1,191,650,000 - 114,121,000 - 178,506,000 = **899,023,000 EUR**. **Step 9: Estimate the 2022 "Adjusted_Debt"** * **Reported Debt (End of 2022 / 2023-01-01):** * "Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities" = 4,722,263,000 EUR. * "Other Current Financial Liabilities" = 619,418,000 EUR. * Total Reported Financial Debt = 4,722,263,000 + 619,418,000 = 5,341,681,000 EUR. * **Pension Deficit:** * "Noncurrent Provisions For Employee Benefits" (2023-01-01) = 112,989,000 EUR. * Add **112,989,000 EUR**. * **Eligible Cash:** * "Disponibilità Liquide E Mezzi Equivalenti" (2023-01-01) = 559,908,000 EUR. * Deduct **559,908,000 EUR**. * **2022 Adjusted Debt:** * Debt: 5,341,681,000 * + Pension Deficit: 112,989,000 * - Cash: 559,908,000 * Total = 5,341,681,000 + 112,989,000 - 559,908,000 = **4,894,762,000 EUR**. **Step 10: Calculate 2022 "Adjusted_Debt / Adjusted_EBITDA"** * Ratio = 4,894,762,000 / 1,191,650,000 ≈ **4.11x** **Step 11: Calculate 2022 "FFO / Adjusted_Debt"** * Ratio = 899,023,000 / 4,894,762,000 ≈ **18.37%** (or 0.184) --- **Step 12: Classify the credit trend** **Signal 1: Leverage (Adjusted Debt / Adjusted EBITDA)** * 2021: 3.86x * 2022: 4.11x * Change: 4.11 - 3.86 = **+0.25x** * Threshold: ≥ +0.2x is **Deteriorating**. **Signal 2: Cash-flow coverage (FFO / Adjusted Debt)** * 2021: 19.68% (0.197) * 2022: 18.37% (0.184) * Change: 0.184 - 0.197 = **-0.013** (or -1.3 percentage points) * Threshold: * ≥ +0.03: Improving * Between -0.03 and +0.03: Stable * ≤ -0.03: Deteriorating * The change is -0.013, which falls within the range (-0.03, +0.03). Thus, this signal is **Stable**. **Combining the signals:** * Signal 1 (Leverage): Deteriorating * Signal 2 (Coverage): Stable Rule: "If one is Stable and the other is Improving or Deteriorating, return the non-Stable category." Therefore, the trend is **Deteriorating**. Deteriorating