To determine S&P's credit trend for ERG S.P.A. from 2021 to 2022, we follow the S&P Global Ratings methodology. **Step 1: Identify the relevant industry** ERG S.p.A. generates electricity principally from renewable sources across several European countries. Based on its operations, it falls under the **Unregulated Power and Gas** industry (specifically, merchant/renewable power generation). The general corporate baseline formulas for cash flow and leverage are applicable here. **Step 2: Estimate the 2021 "Adjusted_EBITDA"** We use the reported EBITDA for continuing operations, which is clear of depreciation, amortization, and asset impairments. * EBITDA (reported) = 396.68M EUR * **2021 Adjusted_EBITDA = 396.68M EUR** **Step 3: Estimate the 2021 "FFO"** FFO (Funds From Operations) adjusts EBITDA for cash interest and cash taxes paid. * Cash Interest Paid = 32.40M EUR * Cash Taxes Paid = 38.01M EUR * FFO = 396.68M - 32.40M - 38.01M * **2021 FFO = 326.27M EUR** **Step 4: Estimate the 2021 "Adjusted_Debt"** Adjusted Debt includes both current and non-current financial liabilities, lease liabilities, and pension obligations, offset by available cash. * Long-term debt (Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities) = 2,064.09M EUR * Short-term debt (Other Current Financial Liabilities) = 1,342.69M EUR * Lease Liabilities (Current + Noncurrent) = 6.28M + 122.66M = 128.94M EUR * Pension Deficit (Noncurrent Provisions for Employee Benefits) = 4.29M EUR * Gross Debt = 2,064.09M + 1,342.69M + 128.94M + 4.29M = 3,540.01M EUR * Cash and Cash Equivalents = 860.35M EUR * Adjusted Debt = 3,540.01M - 860.35M * **2021 Adjusted_Debt = 2,679.66M EUR** **Step 5: Calculate the 2021 "Adjusted_Debt / Adjusted_EBITDA" ratio** * 2021 Leverage = 2,679.66M / 396.68M = **6.75x** **Step 6: Calculate the 2021 "FFO / Adjusted_Debt" ratio** * 2021 FFO / Debt = 326.27M / 2,679.66M = 0.1218 or **12.18%** **Step 7: Estimate the 2022 "Adjusted_EBITDA"** Using the same methodology: * EBITDA (reported) = 499.43M EUR * **2022 Adjusted_EBITDA = 499.43M EUR** **Step 8: Estimate the 2022 "FFO"** * Cash Interest Paid = 29.15M EUR * Cash Taxes Paid = 91.85M EUR * FFO = 499.43M - 29.15M - 91.85M * **2022 FFO = 378.43M EUR** **Step 9: Estimate the 2022 "Adjusted_Debt"** * Long-term debt = 1,751.26M EUR * Short-term debt = 389.72M EUR * Lease Liabilities = 6.36M + 150.96M = 157.32M EUR * Pension Deficit = 3.72M EUR * Gross Debt = 1,751.26M + 389.72M + 157.32M + 3.72M = 2,302.02M EUR * Cash and Cash Equivalents = 392.81M EUR * Adjusted Debt = 2,302.02M - 392.81M * **2022 Adjusted_Debt = 1,909.21M EUR** *(Note: Gross debt fell massively in 2022 mainly due to paydowns via proceeds from divesting discontinued operations).* **Step 10: Calculate the 2022 "Adjusted_Debt / Adjusted_EBITDA" ratio** * 2022 Leverage = 1,909.21M / 499.43M = **3.82x** **Step 11: Calculate the 2022 "FFO / Adjusted_Debt" ratio** * 2022 FFO / Debt = 378.43M / 1,909.21M = 0.1982 or **19.82%** **Step 12: Classify the year-on-year credit trend** * **Signal 1 (Leverage):** 3.82x - 6.75x = **-2.93x**. This is ≤ -0.2x, which signals an **Improving** trend. * **Signal 2 (Cash-flow coverage):** 0.1982 - 0.1218 = **+0.0764**. This is ≥ +0.03, which also signals an **Improving** trend. With both leverage tracking meaningfully lower and FFO-to-Debt experiencing solid growth, the consolidated signals point uniformly to credit improvement. Improving