I'll work through this step-by-step, analyzing Acciona SA's financial data and applying S&P's methodology. ## Step 1: Identify the Relevant Industry for Acciona SA Acciona SA is a Spanish conglomerate with operations in infrastructure, renewable energy, water, and construction. Based on the provided methodologies, Acciona primarily fits into **Transportation Infrastructure** (for its infrastructure concessions) and **Unregulated Power and Gas** (for its renewable energy business). Given that Acciona is known for its significant infrastructure and renewable energy operations, and the data shows substantial property, plant and equipment along with concession-like assets, I'll apply the **general corporate baseline** with considerations from both methodologies, primarily using the general corporate approach since Acciona spans multiple sectors. Looking at the data more carefully: Acciona has large PPE (€9.5B), significant investments in equity method (€1.7B), and operates in infrastructure concessions. The "Participaciones Preferentes Obligaciones YOtros Valores Negociables" suggests debt securities. I'll use the **general corporate baseline formulas** with appropriate adjustments. ## Step 2: Estimate 2021 Adjusted_EBITDA First, I need to reconstruct EBITDA for 2021 (period 2021-01-01 to 2022-01-01): From the income statement: - Revenue: €8,104M - Other Income: €563M - Changes in Inventories: -€110M - Raw Materials and Consumables Used: -€1,980M - Employee Benefits Expense: -€1,787M - Other Expense By Nature: -€3,621M - Dotacion Amortizacion YVariacion De Provisiones (Depreciation & provisions): -€714M - Impairment: -€67M (reversal, so +€67M) - Other Gains Losses: -€7M - Resultado De Puesta En Equivalencia Operativa (Equity method operational): €94M **Operating Profit (Profit Loss From Operating Activities):** €829M To get EBITDA, I add back depreciation and amortization: - Depreciation & amortization from "Dotacion Amortizacion YVariacion De Provisiones": €714M - However, this includes provisions. Looking more carefully, this line includes amortization, provisions, and impairments. Let me reconstruct more carefully. The "Dotacion Amortizacion YVariacion De Provisiones" of €714M includes depreciation, amortization, and changes in provisions. For EBITDA, we typically add back D&A. From cash flow statement: - "Ajustes Por Amortizacion Variacion De Provisiones YDeterioros" (Adjustments for amortization, provisions and impairments): €715M This suggests D&A + provisions + impairments = €715M. The impairment reversal was €67M, so net impairment was negative. Let me use: EBITDA = Operating Profit + D&A ≈ €829M + €714M = **€1,543M** (approximate) Actually, let me be more precise. "Dotacion Amortizacion YVariacion De Provisiones" is €714M. This is already deducted to get to operating profit. So: EBITDA = Profit Loss From Operating Activities + Dotacion Amortizacion YVariacion De Provisiones + Impairment Loss Reversal - Other Gains Losses adjustments... Wait, let me re-read: Operating profit is €829M. The items above it include the €714M charge. So: Gross operating profit before D&A = €829M + €714M = €1,543M. But we need to check if impairments are in this. The "Impairment Loss Reversal" is €67M (positive, meaning reversal). This is below operating profit line? No, looking at structure: Actually, looking at the order: - Revenue - Other Income - Changes in Inventories - Raw Materials - Employee Benefits - Other Expense By Nature - Dotacion Amortizacion... (€714M) - Impairment Loss Reversal (€67M) - this is positive - Other Gains Losses (€7M) - this is negative? No, €7M loss - Resultado De Puesta En Equivalencia Operativa (€94M) - = Profit Loss From Operating Activities: €829M Wait, the signs: "Impairment Loss Reversal Of Impairment Loss Recognised In Profit Or Loss" is -€67M in 2021? Let me check: "2021-01-01 - 2022-01-01: -67000000 EUR" - so this is a negative number, meaning impairment loss (not reversal). Actually "Reversal" in the name but negative value means impairment loss. Let me re-interpret: The label says "Impairment Loss Reversal" but the value is negative €67M. This suggests it's actually an impairment loss (the reversal would be positive). So: impairment loss of €67M. Similarly "Other Gains Losses" is -€7M, meaning a loss. And "Resultado De Puesta En Equivalencia Operativa" is +€94M. So: €829M = (Revenue + Other Income + inventory changes + ... ) - €714M - €67M - €7M + €94M To get back to a clean EBITDA, I need to add back D&A and normalize: **Reported/reconstructed EBITDA for 2021:** = Profit Loss From Operating Activities + Dotacion Amortizacion YVariacion De Provisiones + Impairment Loss (add back as non-recurring or normal) + Other Gains Losses (add back if non-recurring) Actually, for S&P Adjusted EBITDA, we want to normalize. Let me use: EBITDA ≈ €829M + €714M + €67M + €7M - €94M (equity method is typically excluded or adjusted separately) Hmm, equity method results are usually below operating profit in some definitions. Let me check if €829M includes equity method: "Resultado De Puesta En Equivalencia Operativa" of €94M is included in the €829M. For S&P purposes, Adjusted EBITDA typically includes proportional EBITDA from JVs, not just equity income. Let me use a cleaner approach. From the cash flow: - Operating cash flow: €574M - Add back: Interest paid €206M, Interest received €23M, Dividends received €49M, Income taxes paid €82M, Other items... Actually, let me use: EBITDA = Operating Profit + D&A. I'll estimate D&A as the amortization portion. From "Dotacion Amortizacion YVariacion De Provisiones" = €714M. This includes amortization, provisions, and impairments. For S&P, we add back D&A but not provisions. Given data limitations, I'll estimate: **D&A ≈ €600M** (rough estimate, with €114M for provisions). So **EBITDA ≈ €829M + €600M = €1,429M** But let me try another approach. Looking at 2022: - Dotacion Amortizacion YVariacion De Provisiones: €762M - Operating profit: €1,334M If I assume similar proportion, for 2021 D&A might be around €600M. Actually, let me use the cash flow adjustment: "Ajustes Por Amortizacion Variacion De Provisiones YDeterioros" = €715M for 2021. This is the cash flow add-back, which includes amortization, provisions, and impairments. I'll use **EBITDA = €829M + €715M = €1,544M** as a starting point, then adjust. For **Adjusted_EBITDA 2021**: - Base EBITDA: €1,544M - + adjustment_leases: Not separately identifiable, but "Rightofuse Assets" exists. IFRS 16 leases are already in PPE effectively. Looking at lease liabilities: Noncurrent €430M + Current €68M = €498M. Finance costs include lease interest. I'll add back lease depreciation if not already in D&A. Given IFRS 16, it's likely included. - + nonrecurring_losses: Impairment loss €67M, Other losses €7M = €74M - - nonrecurring_gains: None obvious - ± pension_adjustments: Not identifiable - ± joint_venture_proportional_EBITDA: Equity method income was €94M. For proportional EBITDA, we'd need gross. Not enough info, so use as is or add back with estimate. I'll add back €94M and subtract proportional EBIT... actually S&P sometimes replaces equity income with proportional EBITDA. Let's estimate proportional EBITDA ≈ €150M (rough), so add €150M - €94M = €56M. Actually, simpler approach: use reported EBITDA with minimal adjustments. Let me use: **Adjusted_EBITDA 2021 = €1,544M + €74M (add back impairments/losses as nonrecurring) = €1,618M** Or more conservatively, just use clean EBITDA: **€1,544M** Given complexity, I'll use: **Adjusted_EBITDA 2021 ≈ €1,600M** (rounded estimate) Let me recalculate more carefully with actual data: For 2021: Revenue: €8,104M Other Income: €563M Total income: €8,667M Less operating costs: - Changes in inventories: -€110M - Raw materials: -€1,980M - Employee benefits: -€1,787M - Other expense: -€3,621M - D&A, provisions: -€714M - Impairment: -€67M - Other losses: -€7M + Equity method income: +€94M = €829M operating profit So "EBITDA" before D&A, impairments = €829M + €714M + €67M + €7M - €94M = €1,523M? No wait, equity method is added. Actually: €829M - €94M (remove equity) + €714M + €67M + €7M = €1,523M for core EBITDA? Hmm, let me just use: Core operating profit before D&A = €829M + €714M + €67M + €7M = €1,617M, then -€94M equity = €1,523M, or keep equity and call it €1,617M. I'll use **Adjusted_EBITDA 2021 = €1,600M** as reasonable estimate. ## Step 3: Estimate 2021 FFO FFO = Adjusted_EBITDA - cash_interest - cash_taxes From cash flow: - Interest paid (operating): €206M - Interest received: €23M - Income taxes paid: €82M Net cash interest = €206M - €23M = €183M? Or gross €206M? S&P typically uses gross cash interest paid. Cash taxes: €82M FFO = €1,600M - €206M - €82M = **€1,312M** Or if using net interest: €1,600M - €183M - €82M = €1,335M I'll use **FFO 2021 ≈ €1,300M** (conservative) ## Step 4: Estimate 2021 Adjusted_Debt From balance sheet 2022-01-01 (which is 2021 year-end): - Participaciones Preferentes Obligaciones YOtros Valores Negociables No Corrientes: €2,364M (non-current debt securities/bonds) - Noncurrent Portion Of Noncurrent Loans Received: €2,073M - Noncurrent Lease Liabilities: €430M - Current portion of debt securities: €1,666M - Current Loans Received: €280M - Current Lease Liabilities: €68M Total reported debt = €2,364M + €2,073M + €430M + €1,666M + €280M + €68M = €6,881M Less: Cash and equivalents = €2,318M Net debt = €4,563M For Adjusted_Debt: - Reported debt: €6,881M - + leases: Already included in debt above (IFRS 16) - + pension deficit: Not separately stated; "Other Noncurrent Liabilities" €1,150M may include some - + guarantees: Not stated - + hybrid debt portion: Not identified - + other debt-like items: Not identified - - eligible cash: €2,318M Adjusted_Debt = €6,881M - €2,318M = **€4,563M** (or higher if pension/other items added) Actually, let me check if there are held-for-sale liabilities: €263M in 2021. These should be included if related to debt. Looking more carefully at 2021 balance sheet: - Noncurrent liabilities: €7,131M includes the debt items above - Current liabilities: €6,915M includes current debt items Total debt-like: The "Participaciones Preferentes" are preferred shares/debt-like securities. Let me include all. Actually, S&P treats preferred shares as hybrid equity/debt. Let me check: "Participaciones Preferentes Obligaciones YOtros Valores Negociables" - this includes preferred shares and bonds. For conservative estimate, treat preferred shares as 50% debt or full debt. I'll include full as debt-like. Adjusted_Debt 2021 ≈ **€4,600M** (net of cash, or €6,900M gross) I'll use net adjusted debt for ratios: **€4,600M** ## Step 5: Calculate 2021 Adjusted_Debt / Adjusted_EBITDA = €4,600M / €1,600M = **2.875x** Or if using gross debt: €6,900M / €1,600M = 4.31x S&P typically uses net debt for some ratios, gross for others. For FFO/Debt, it's typically gross debt. For Debt/EBITDA, can be either. Let me use **gross Adjusted_Debt** for consistency with S&P's typical approach: €6,900M / €1,600M = **4.31x** Hmm, but with cash netting: €4,600M / €1,600M = **2.88x** I'll use gross debt as more standard for S&P credit analysis: **4.3x** ## Step 6: Calculate 2021 FFO / Adjusted_Debt Using gross debt: €1,300M / €6,900M = **0.188** or 18.8% Using net debt: €1,300M / €4,600M = **0.283** or 28.3% S&P typically uses gross debt for FFO/Debt. So: **0.19 or 19%** ## Step 7: Estimate 2022 Adjusted_EBITDA For 2022 (period 2022-01-01 to 2023-01-01): - Revenue: €11,195M - Other Income: €1,016M - Changes in Inventories: -€72M - Raw Materials: -€3,483M - Employee Benefits: -€2,077M - Other Expense: -€4,814M - Dotacion Amortizacion: -€762M - Impairment: -€15M (reversal? No, negative means loss) - Other Gains: +€13M - Equity method operational: €159M - Operating Profit: €1,334M EBITDA reconstruction: €1,334M + €762M + €15M - €13M - €159M? Wait, equity method is positive €159M. So core before equity = €1,334M - €159M = €1,175M? No, operating profit includes equity method. Actually: €1,334M = (operations) - €762M - €15M + €13M + €159M So operations before these items = €1,334M + €762M + €15M - €13M - €159M = €1,939M? Hmm, let me just do: Core EBITDA = €1,334M + €762M + €15M - €13M = €2,098M, or with equity €2,257M. Using cash flow add-back: "Ajustes Por Amortizacion Variacion De Provisiones YDeterioros" = €848M So EBITDA ≈ €1,334M + €848M = €2,182M? But this includes provisions. Let me use: **Adjusted_EBITDA 2022 ≈ €2,000M** (conservative, with some normalization) More precisely, using similar approach to 2021: Base EBITDA = €1,334M + €762M + €15M - €13M = €2,098M (adding back D&A, impairment, subtracting gain) Or with equity: €2,098M (equity already in? No, €159M is below line) Actually operating profit €1,334M includes equity method €159M. So: Core EBIT before equity = €1,334M - €159M = €1,175M Add D&A, impairments back: €1,175M + €762M + €15M - €13M = €1,939M Then + equity method EBITDA estimate: €159M → proportional EBITDA ≈ €250M? This gets messy. Let me use simpler: **Adjusted_EBITDA 2022 = €2,000M** ## Step 8: Estimate 2022 FFO From cash flow: - Interest paid: €209M - Interest received: €40M - Income taxes paid: €215M FFO = €2,000M - €209M - €215M = **€1,576M** Or roughly: **€1,600M** ## Step 9: Estimate 2022 Adjusted_Debt From 2023-01-01 balance sheet (2022 year-end): - Noncurrent debt securities: €3,101M - Noncurrent loans: €2,624M - Noncurrent leases: €439M - Current debt securities: €1,139M - Current loans: €553M - Current leases: €72M Total debt = €3,101M + €2,624M + €439M + €1,139M + €553M + €72M = €7,928M Less cash: €2,360M Net debt = €5,568M Adjusted_Debt (gross) = **€7,900M** or net **€5,600M** ## Step 10: Calculate 2022 Adjusted_Debt / Adjusted_EBITDA Gross: €7,900M / €2,000M = **3.95x** Net: €5,600M / €2,000M = **2.80x** ## Step 11: Calculate 2022 FFO / Adjusted_Debt Gross: €1,600M / €7,900M = **0.203** or 20.3% Net: €1,600M / €5,600M = **0.286** or 28.6% ## Step 12: Classify Year-on-Year Credit Trend Let me recalculate more carefully with consistent definitions. I'll use **gross debt** for debt/EBITDA and **gross debt** for FFO/debt to be consistent with S&P methodology. ### Recalculating with more precision: **2021:** - Adjusted_EBITDA: Let me use €1,523M (from €829M + €714M + €67M + €7M - €94M, keeping equity method separate, or €1,617M with equity) Actually let me use: Operating profit €829M + D&A estimate €600M + impairments €67M + losses €7M = €1,503M. Add equity method EBITDA estimate: €1,503M + €50M = €1,553M. Round to **€1,550M** - Or simpler: Revenue €8,104M, margin analysis. If EBITDA margin ~20%, EBITDA = €1,621M. Use **€1,600M** - FFO: €1,600M - €206M - €82M = **€1,312M** - Adjusted_Debt (gross): €6,881M + some adjustments ≈ **€7,000M** - Debt/EBITDA: €7,000M / €1,600M = **4.38x** - FFO/Debt: €1,312M / €7,000M = **0.187** or 18.7% **2022:** - Adjusted_EBITDA: Revenue €11,195M, if margin improves due to scale... Operating profit €1,334M + €762M + €15M - €13M = €2,098M. Less equity method adjustment, add proportional. Use **€2,000M** - FFO: €2,000M - €209M - €215M = **€1,576M** - Adjusted_Debt (gross): €7,928M ≈ **€7,900M** - Debt/EBITDA: €7,900M / €2,000M = **3.95x** - FFO/Debt: €1,576M / €7,900M = **0.199** or 19.9% ### Signal 1: Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 2021: 4.38x 2022: 3.95x Change: 3.95 - 4.38 = **-0.43x** This is ≤ -0.2x, so **Improving** ### Signal 2: Cash-flow coverage (FFO/Debt) 2021: 0.187 2022: 0.199 Change: 0.199 - 0.187 = **+0.012** or +1.2 percentage points This is between -0.03 and +0.03, so **Stable** ### Combining signals: Signal 1: Improving Signal 2: Stable Per rules: "If one is Stable and the other is Improving or Deteriorating, return the non-Stable category." Therefore: **Improving** However, let me double-check with net debt approach to see if consistent: **Net debt approach:** 2021: - Net Adjusted_Debt: €4,563M - Debt/EBITDA: €4,563M / €1,600M = 2.85x - FFO/Debt: €1,312M / €4,563M = 0.288 2022: - Net Adjusted_Debt: €5,568M - Debt/EBITDA: €5,568M / €2,000M = 2.78x - FFO/Debt: €1,576M / €5,568M = 0.283 Signal 1: 2.78 - 2.85 = -0.07x → Stable (between -0.2 and +0.2) Signal 2: 0.283 - 0.288 = -0.005 → Stable Both Stable → **Stable** Hmm, this differs. The gross debt shows Improving, net debt shows Stable. S&P methodology typically uses **gross debt** for FFO/Debt ratios, and often gross or net depending on context. For leverage (Debt/EBITDA), they often use gross debt or net debt depending on industry. For infrastructure and corporate, S&P Global Ratings typically uses: - FFO/Debt: Gross debt - Debt/EBITDA: Can be gross or net, but often they report both Given the methodology says "Adjusted_Debt" which includes cash netting, let me re-check my gross vs net. Actually, re-reading Step 4: "Adjusted_Debt = (reported_debt + leases + pension_deficit + guarantees + hybrid_debt_portion + other_debt_like_items) - eligible_cash" This explicitly nets cash! So I should use **net debt**. With net debt: 2021: €4,563M / €1,600M = 2.85x, FFO/Debt = €1,312M/€4,563M = 0.288 2022: €5,568M / €2,000M = 2.78x, FFO/Debt = €1,576M/€5,568M = 0.283 Wait, net debt increased from €4,563M to €5,568M, but EBITDA increased more. So Debt/EBITDA improved slightly. Signal 1: 2.78 - 2.85 = -0.07x → **Stable** (not ≤ -0.2) Signal 2: 0.283 - 0.288 = -0.005 → **Stable** Both Stable → **Stable** But wait, let me recheck FFO. FFO should use cash interest, not accrued. And I need to verify if taxes are cash or accrued. From cash flow statement, "Income Taxes Paid Refund Classified As Operating Activities" = €82M for 2021, €215M for 2022. These are cash taxes. For interest, "Interest Paid Classified As Operating Activities" = €206M for 2021, €209M for 2022. But "Finance Costs" on P&L = €235M for 2021, €256M for 2022. The difference may be capitalized interest or accruals. For S&P FFO, they typically use: Funds From Operations = Net Income + D&A + deferred taxes + other non-cash items - working capital changes... Actually no, S&P FFO is typically: FFO = Net Income + Depreciation + Deferred Taxes + Other Non-Cash Items - Gain on Asset Sales Or from EBITDA: FFO = EBITDA - Cash Interest - Cash Taxes Let me recalculate FFO more carefully using alternative approach: 2021 Net Income (Profit Loss Attributable to Owners): €332M + Noncontrolling interests: €72M = Total Profit Loss: €404M Add back: + D&A: ~€600M (estimate) + Deferred taxes: Not clear - Working capital: Not in FFO typically Actually S&P's standard FFO calculation: FFO = Funds from operations = Net income before extraordinary items + depreciation and amortization + deferred income taxes + other non-cash items From cash flow, "Cash Flows From Used In Operating Activities" = €574M for 2021. This includes working capital changes. To get FFO, we'd add back working capital changes. "Increase Decrease In Working Capital" = -€340M for 2021 (negative means cash outflow/increase in working capital) So FFO ≈ €574M - €340M (add back working capital outflow) + interest paid €206M + taxes paid €82M - interest received €23M - dividends received €49M? Hmm, this gets circular. Let me use the direct formula. Actually, looking at S&P's typical approach for corporates: FFO = Net cash from operating activities + cash interest paid + cash taxes paid - cash interest received - dividends received (sometimes) Or: FFO = EBITDA - cash interest - cash taxes Let me stick with: FFO = €1,600M - €206M - €82M = €1,312M for 2021 But wait, this assumes EBITDA is pre-working capital. Actually EBITDA is pre-working capital. So FFO from EBITDA should subtract working capital changes too? No, S&P FFO is typically: EBITDA - Cash Interest - Cash Taxes. This gives a pre-working capital measure, which is then used with working capital in FCCR. Actually, let me verify: S&P's "Funds From Operations" typically includes working capital effects if using cash flow approach, but if using EBITDA approach, it's EBITDA - cash interest - cash taxes, which is more like "operating cash flow before working capital changes." Hmm, I think for consistency with S&P credit stats, let me use: FFO = Net cash from operating activities + interest paid - interest received + dividends received (if classified as operating) For 2021: €574M + €206M - €23M + €49M = €806M? No, dividends received are already in operating cash flow. Actually operating cash flow €574M includes: - Start with profit - Add back D&A, etc. - Working capital changes - Interest paid - Interest received - Dividends received - Taxes paid - Other items So to get FFO (which excludes working capital), we'd need to add back working capital changes. From "Increase Decrease In Working Capital" = -€340M (outflow) So FFO ≈ €574M + €340M = €914M? Then add back interest paid and taxes paid? No, those are already in the €574M. Let me trace through: Operating cash flow €574M includes interest paid (outflow), interest received (inflow), dividends received (inflow), taxes paid (outflow). S&P FFO typically = Operating cash flow + cash interest paid + cash taxes paid - cash interest received. This normalizes for financing and tax items. So: €574M + €206M + €82M - €23M = €839M for 2021 FFO? Or: €574M + €206M + €82M - €23M - €49M (dividends) = €790M? This is getting complicated. Let me use a simpler consistent approach. Given time constraints, let me use my original estimates but be more careful: For 2021: - Adjusted_EBITDA = €1,600M - Cash interest = €206M (paid) - Cash taxes = €82M - FFO = €1,600M - €206M - €82M = €1,312M For 2022: - Adjusted_EBITDA = €2,000M - Cash interest = €209M - Cash taxes = €215M - FFO = €2,000M - €209M - €215M = €1,576M Net Adjusted_Debt: 2021: €6,881M debt - €2,318M cash = €4,563M 2022: €7,928M debt - €2,360M cash = €5,568M Ratios 2021: - Debt/EBITDA: €4,563M / €1,600M = 2.85x - FFO/Debt: €1,312M / €4,563M = 0.288 (28.8%) Ratios 2022: - Debt/EBITDA: €5,568M / €2,000M = 2.78x - FFO/Debt: €1,576M / €5,568M = 0.283 (28.3%) Signal 1: 2.78 - 2.85 = -0.07x → **Stable** (not ≤ -0.2) Signal 2: 0.283 - 0.288 = -0.005 → **Stable** Both Stable → **Stable** But wait, I need to check if my EBITDA estimates are reasonable. Revenue grew 38% from €8,104M to €11,195M. Operating profit grew 61% from €829M to €1,334M. This suggests margin improvement. If I use more aggressive EBITDA for 2022: Operating profit €1,334M + €762M + €15M - €13M + €159M equity? = €2,257M. But equity method is not EBITDA. Actually, let me check: "Resultado De Puesta En Equivalencia Operativa" = €159M. This is equity method operating result. For S&P, they sometimes want proportional EBITDA, not equity income. If I gross this up to proportional EBITDA of say €300M, then: Adjusted_EBITDA = €1,334M - €159M + €300M + €762M + €15M - €13M = €2,239M This is messy. Let me just use reported-based EBITDA. From 2022 cash flow: Operating cash flow €1,648M is much higher than 2021's €574M. This suggests strong cash generation. If I use FFO from cash flow approach: 2022 operating cash flow €1,648M + working capital add-back? Working capital was +€135M (inflow). So FFO ≈ €1,648M - €135M = €1,513M? Plus interest and taxes? Actually, let me try: FFO = Operating cash flow before working capital changes. = €1,648M - €135M (working capital inflow, so subtract to get before-WC) = €1,513M? No, if working capital was positive €135M, then before-WC would be lower. Wait: "Increase Decrease In Working Capital" = €135M for 2022. Positive means source of cash (decrease in working capital or increase in payables, etc.). So cash flow before working capital = €1,648M - €135M = €1,513M. Then add back interest paid €209M and taxes paid €215M, subtract interest received €40M and dividends received €89M: = €1,513M + €209M + €215M - €40M - €89M = €1,808M? This seems too high. Hmm, I think the operating cash flow already includes these items. Let me not double count. Actually, looking at S&P's standard definition more carefully: FFO = Funds from operations = Net income from continuing operations + depreciation & amortization + deferred income taxes + other non-cash items For 2022: Net income: €615M + D&A: ~€762M (from cash flow add-back, less provisions) + Deferred taxes: ? + Other non-cash: equity method losses €194M - €159M = €35M? Actually "Share Of Profit Loss Of Associates" is -€194M (loss), while "Resultado De Puesta En Equivalencia Operativa" is +€159M. These may be different items. Let me use: €615M + €762M = €1,377M, then adjust for minorities, etc. Add noncontrolling interests share of profit €174M: €615M + €174M = €789M total profit. Hmm, but €615M is after all. Actually "Profit Loss" = €615M, "Profit Loss Attributable To Noncontrolling Interests" = €174M, "Profit Loss Attributable To Owners Of Parent" = €441M. Check: €441M + €174M = €615M. ✓ So FFO starting from net income €615M: + D&A: €762M (from P&L, or €848M from cash flow) + Other non-cash items: equity method income -€159M (subtract as it's non-cash income), impairments -€15M, etc. Using cash flow approach is cleaner. "Cash Flows From Used In Operating Activities" = €1,648M. This is after working capital, interest, taxes. To get S&P FFO: Add back working capital changes, interest paid, taxes paid, subtract interest received, dividends received. = €1,648M + (-€135M)? No, working capital was +€135M (source). So to exclude working capital: subtract €135M. = €1,648M - €135M = €1,513M (this is before working capital changes, but after interest and taxes) Then add back interest €209M and taxes €215M, subtract interest received €40M and dividends €89M: = €1,513M + €209M + €215M - €40M - €89M = €1,808M This seems high. Let me verify with another approach. EBITDA estimate: €2,000M - Cash interest: €209M - Cash taxes: €215M = €1,576M FFO The difference (€1,808M vs €1,576M = €232M) may be due to dividends received €89M, other items, or my EBITDA estimate being off. Given the uncertainty, let me use **FFO 2022 = €1,600M** and **FFO 2021 = €1,300M** as reasonable estimates. With these, and net debt: 2021: FFO/Debt = €1,300M / €4,563M = 0.285 2022: FFO/Debt = €1,600M / €5,568M = 0.287 Signal 2: 0.287 - 0.285 = +0.002 → **Stable** Signal 1 with these: 2.78 - 2.85 = -0.07 → **Stable** Both Stable → **Stable** But let me try one more time with slightly different EBITDA. If 2022 EBITDA is higher due to revenue growth: Revenue growth: 38% Cost growth: Raw materials 76%, Employee 16%, Other expense 33% Operating profit growth: 61% If EBITDA margin was ~19% in 2021 (€1,600M/€8,667M revenue+other income), and improves to ~20% in 2022: €2,400M? That seems high. Using operating profit €1,334M + D&A. If D&A is €848M (cash flow add-back), then EBITDA = €2,182M. But this includes provisions. Let me use **Adjusted_EBITDA 2022 = €2,100M** and **2021 = €1,550M** Then: 2021: Debt/EBITDA = €4,563M/€1,550M = 2.94x, FFO/Debt = (€1,550M-€206M-€82M)/€4,563M = €1,262M/€4,563M = 0.277 2022: Debt/EBITDA = €5,568M/€2,100M = 2.65x, FFO/Debt = (€2,100M-€209M-€215M)/€5,568M = €1,676M/€5,568M = 0.301 Signal 1: 2.65 - 2.94 = -0.29x → **Improving** (≤ -0.2) Signal 2: 0.301 - 0.277 = +0.024 → **Stable** (between -0.03 and +0.03) One Improving, one Stable → **Improving** This is sensitive to EBITDA estimates. Let me check with more conservative 2022 EBITDA. If 2022 EBITDA = €1,900M: Debt/EBITDA = €5,568M/€1,900M = 2.93x FFO = €1,900M - €209M - €215M = €1,476M FFO/Debt = €1,476M/€5,568M = 0.265 Signal 1: 2.93 - 2.94 = -0.01x → **Stable** Signal 2: 0.265 - 0.277 = -0.012 → **Stable** Both Stable → **Stable** Given the uncertainty, I need to make a reasonable estimate. Let me look at cash flow more carefully. 2022 Operating cash flow €1,648M vs 2021 €574M. This is a huge increase (187%). This supports higher EBITDA or better working capital. Working capital 2022: +€135M (source) vs 2021: -€340M (use). So working capital improved by €475M. If we exclude working capital: 2021 operating cash flow before WC = €574M - (-€340M) = €914M? No, if WC was -€340M (use of cash), then before WC would be higher: €574M + €340M = €914M. 2022: €1,648M - €135M = €1,513M before WC. So core operating cash generation improved from €914M to €1,513M, a 65% increase. This suggests EBITDA improved significantly, or margins improved. If I assume similar interest and taxes proportions: 2021: €914M before WC, after interest €206M and taxes €82M received? No, taxes paid are outflow. Actually, let me reconstruct: Operating cash flow = Net income + D&A + WC changes + other items For 2021: Net income €404M + D&A etc. €715M (from cash flow add-back) + WC -€340M + Other -€378M + Interest paid -€206M? No, this is already in net income or below. Hmm, the cash flow statement shows: "Adjustments For Reconcile Profit Loss" = €717M "Increase Decrease In Working Capital" = -€340M "Otros Flujos De Efectivo De Actividades De Explotacion" = -€378M "Interest Paid" = -€206M "Interest Received" = €23M "Dividends Received" = €49M "Income Taxes Paid" = -€82M "Other" = -€162M Sum: €404M + €717M - €340M - €378M - €206M + €23M + €49M - €82M - €162M = €25M? Doesn't equal €574M. Wait, starting point is "Profit Loss" €404M, not comprehensive. Let me check: €404M + €717M = €1,121M. Then -€340M - €378M = €403M. Then -€206M + €23M + €49M - €82M - €162M = €403M - €378M = €25M? Still wrong. Actually "Other" might be included differently. Let me just accept the operating cash flow is €574M as given. Given the large improvement in operating cash flow (€574M to €1,648M), and even after adjusting for working capital (€914M to €1,513M), there's clear improvement in core cash generation. For credit trend, the key question is whether leverage improved and coverage improved. Debt increased from €6,881M to €7,928M (+15%), while cash increased from €2,318M to €2,360M (+2%). So net debt increased from €4,563M to €5,568M (+22%). But EBITDA likely increased more than 22%. Revenue increased 38%, operating profit increased 61%. So EBITDA probably increased 40-50%. If EBITDA increased 45% (from €1,600M to €2,320M), then: Debt/EBITDA 2022 = €5,568M/€2,320M = 2.40x vs 2.85x, improvement of -0.45x → **Improving** FFO = €2,320M - €209M - €215M = €1,896M FFO/Debt = €1,896M/€5,568M = 0.340 vs 0.288, improvement of +0.052 → **Improving** Both Improving → **Improving** But if EBITDA only increased 25% to €2,000M: Debt/EBITDA = 2.78x, improvement -0.07x → **Stable** FFO/Debt = €1,576M/€5,568M = 0.283, change -0.005 → **Stable** Both Stable → **Stable** Given the 38% revenue growth and 61% operating profit growth, I think EBITDA growth is likely closer to 40-50% than 25%. The cash flow improvement (65% before working capital) supports this. However, I need to be careful. The 2021 base might have been depressed, and 2022 might include one-time items or acquisitions. Looking at balance sheet: PPE increased from €8,066M to €9,485M (+18%). Intangibles increased from €453M to €545M (+20%). Investments in equity method increased from €1,325M to €1,730M (+31%). Total assets grew 15%. This suggests significant investment, but also growth. Given all this analysis, I think the most reasonable conclusion is: **Signal 1 (Leverage):** Likely **Improving** or **Stable** depending on EBITDA estimate **Signal 2 (Coverage):** Likely **Stable** or **Improving** Given the conservative bias rule ("lean toward the more negative signal"), if signals conflict, I should lean toward Stable if one is Stable and other is Improving. But if both are Improving or both Stable, that's the answer. My best estimate: - If EBITDA grew ~30-40%: Debt/EBITDA improves slightly (Stable), FFO/Debt improves slightly (Stable) → **Stable** - If EBITDA grew >40%: Both improve → **Improving** Given revenue grew 38% but costs grew faster in some areas (raw materials +76%), EBITDA growth might be moderated. I'll estimate **30-35% EBITDA growth**. With 35% growth: 2021 EBITDA €1,600M → 2022 €2,160M Debt/EBITDA: 2.58x, change -0.27x → **Improving** FFO: €2,160M - €209M - €215M = €1,736M FFO/Debt: €1,736M/€5,568M = 0.312, change +0.024 → **Stable** One Improving, one Stable → **Improving** With 25% growth: 2022 EBITDA €2,000M Debt/EBITDA: 2.78x, change -0.07x → **Stable** FFO/Debt: €1,576M/€5,568M = 0.283, change -0.005 → **Stable** Both Stable → **Stable** I think 25-35% EBITDA growth is reasonable. At 30% growth (€2,080M): Debt/EBITDA: 2.68x, change -0.17x → **Stable** (not quite -0.2) FFO/Debt: €1,656M/€5,568M = 0.297, change +0.009 → **Stable** Both Stable → **Stable** At 32% growth (€2,112M): Debt/EBITDA: 2.64x, change -0.21x → **Improving** FFO/Debt: €1,688M/€5,568M = 0.303, change +0.015 → **Stable** One Improving, one Stable → **Improving** Given the 61% operating profit growth, I think EBITDA growth is likely above 30%. The cash flow improvement supports this. I'll lean toward **Improving** as the revenue and profit growth is strong, and leverage likely improved meaningfully. However, to be conservative as instructed: "As a default, lean toward the more negative signal." If one signal is Improving and other is Stable, the "more negative" of those two is Stable. But the rule says "If one is Stable and the other is Improving or Deteriorating, return the non-Stable category." So that would be Improving. Wait, re-reading: "If one is Stable and the other is Improving or Deteriorating, return the non-Stable category." This clearly says return Improving when one is Stable and other is Improving. So my answer is **Improving** if signals differ, or **Stable** if both same. Given my analysis, I think the most likely scenario is: - Signal 1: Improving (strong EBITDA growth reduces leverage) - Signal 2: Stable (FFO/Debt improvement not quite enough) Result: **Improving** Or both Stable if EBITDA growth is more modest. Given the 61% operating profit growth and 187% operating cash flow growth, I find it hard to believe both signals are merely Stable. The improvement is substantial. Final decision: **Improving** Improving