**Step 1: Identify the relevant industry** Terna S.p.A. is the Italian transmission system operator (TSO) for electricity. It operates the high-voltage national electricity grid. According to the provided text, this falls under the **Regulated Utilities** sector, specifically the "Electricity National" subsector. The company operates as a natural monopoly with tariffs controlled by a regulatory body (ARERA in Italy), fitting the description of companies "shielded from competition, while also being subject to comprehensive regulation." **Step 2: Estimate 2021 Adjusted_EBITDA** For Regulated Utilities, S&P typically uses EBITDA as a key profitability indicator. We reconstruct EBITDA from the reported figures for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2021 (period 2021-01-01 to 2022-01-01). * **Profit Loss From Operating Activities (EBIT):** 1,200,400,000 EUR * **Depreciation Amortisation And Impairment Loss:** 654,400,000 EUR * **Reported EBITDA:** EBIT + Depreciation = 1,200,400,000 + 654,400,000 = 1,854,800,000 EUR *Adjustments:* * **Leases:** No specific lease liability or adjustment data is provided in the facts to suggest a significant operating lease adjustment distinct from standard accounting. We assume reported figures are sufficient or adjustments are negligible for this estimation. * **Non-recurring items:** The facts do not explicitly identify significant non-recurring gains or losses requiring normalization. The "Share Of Profit Loss Of Associates" is small (300,000 EUR) and excluded from EBITDA calculation usually (it's below operating profit). * **Pension/JV:** No specific pension deficit adjustments or proportional JV EBITDA add-backs are indicated as necessary beyond standard reporting. **2021 Adjusted_EBITDA** = **1,854,800,000 EUR** **Step 3: Estimate 2021 FFO** Formula: FFO = Adjusted_EBITDA - cash_interest - cash_taxes * **Adjusted_EBITDA:** 1,854,800,000 EUR * **Cash Interest:** The facts provide "Finance Costs" (95,800,000 EUR) and "Finance Income Cost" (16,600,000 EUR). However, for FFO, S&P uses *cash* interest paid. The Cash Flow statement provides "Interest Paid Classified As Operating Activities" = 214,600,000 EUR. Note: Interest paid can differ from finance costs due to capitalization and timing. The cash flow figure is the most accurate proxy for cash interest outflow. * Cash Interest = 214,600,000 EUR * **Cash Taxes:** The Cash Flow statement provides "Income Taxes Paid Refund Classified As Operating Activities" = 317,900,000 EUR. * Cash Taxes = 317,900,000 EUR **2021 FFO** = 1,854,800,000 - 214,600,000 - 317,900,000 = **1,322,300,000 EUR** **Step 4: Estimate 2021 Adjusted_Debt** Formula: Adjusted_Debt = (reported_debt + leases + pension_deficit + guarantees + hybrid_debt_portion + other_debt_like_items) - eligible_cash We look at the balance sheet as of 2022-01-01 (which represents the end of the 2021 fiscal year). * **Reported Debt:** * Long-term Borrowings: 8,835,000,000 EUR * Short-term Borrowings: 1,947,000,000 EUR * Current Portion of Long-term Borrowings: 1,640,000,000 EUR * Noncurrent Financial Liabilities: 83,700,000 EUR * Current Financial Liabilities: 45,800,000 EUR * *Total Gross Debt* = 8,835 + 1,947 + 1,640 + 0.0837 + 0.0458 = **12,550,800,000 EUR** (approx) * **Hybrid Debt Portion:** The equity section shows "Equity Instruments Perpetual Hybrid Bonds" with a movement of 0 in 2021, but we need the outstanding balance. Looking at the 2022 equity roll-forward, the balance of Hybrid Bonds appears to be 0 at the start of 2022 (Jan 1, 2022) because the issuance of 989,000,000 EUR happened in the 2022 period (movement in 2022-01-01 to 2023-01-01). Let's verify the 2021 year-end equity components. The list of equity members for 2022-01-01 does *not* list Hybrid Bonds. It lists them for 2023-01-01. Thus, at the end of 2021, Hybrid Debt = 0. * **Pension Deficit:** "Noncurrent Provisions For Employee Benefits" is 60,800,000 EUR. S&P often treats pension deficits as debt-like. We will include this. * **Eligible Cash:** "Cash And Cash Equivalents" = 1,566,800,000 EUR. S&P typically deducts unrestricted cash. * **Other Adjustments:** No specific guarantees or lease liabilities provided. **2021 Adjusted_Debt** = (12,550,800,000 + 60,800,000) - 1,566,800,000 = 12,611,600,000 - 1,566,800,000 = **11,044,800,000 EUR** **Step 5: Calculate 2021 Adjusted_Debt / Adjusted_EBITDA** Ratio = 11,044,800,000 / 1,854,800,000 ≈ **5.95x** **Step 6: Calculate 2021 FFO / Adjusted_Debt** Ratio = 1,322,300,000 / 11,044,800,000 ≈ **0.1197** (or 11.97%) **Step 7: Estimate 2022 Adjusted_EBITDA** Period: 2022-01-01 to 2023-01-01. * **Profit Loss From Operating Activities (EBIT):** 1,333,500,000 EUR * **Depreciation Amortisation And Impairment Loss:** 725,700,000 EUR * **Reported EBITDA:** 1,333,500,000 + 725,700,000 = 2,059,200,000 EUR No significant non-recurring adjustments identified. **2022 Adjusted_EBITDA** = **2,059,200,000 EUR** **Step 8: Estimate 2022 FFO** * **Adjusted_EBITDA:** 2,059,200,000 EUR * **Cash Interest:** "Interest Paid Classified As Operating Activities" = 154,800,000 EUR. * **Cash Taxes:** "Income Taxes Paid Refund Classified As Operating Activities" = 380,100,000 EUR. **2022 FFO** = 2,059,200,000 - 154,800,000 - 380,100,000 = **1,524,300,000 EUR** **Step 9: Estimate 2022 Adjusted_Debt** Balance sheet as of 2023-01-01 (end of 2022 fiscal year). * **Reported Debt:** * Long-term Borrowings: 8,416,700,000 EUR * Short-term Borrowings: 444,100,000 EUR * Current Portion of Long-term Borrowings: 1,909,300,000 EUR * Noncurrent Financial Liabilities: 247,200,000 EUR * Current Financial Liabilities: 44,900,000 EUR * *Total Gross Debt* = 8,416.7 + 444.1 + 1,909.3 + 247.2 + 44.9 = **11,062,200,000 EUR** * **Hybrid Debt Portion:** In 2022, the company issued "Equity Instruments Perpetual Hybrid Bonds" worth 989,000,000 EUR. These are classified as Equity in the report ("Equity Instruments..."). S&P typically treats perpetual hybrid bonds as 50% debt and 50% equity, or sometimes 100% debt depending on the specific terms and rating agency view on deferral/cumulation. Given the label "Equity Instruments" but the nature of hybrids, a standard conservative adjustment is to treat a portion as debt-like. However, looking at the "Financial Risk Profile" for Regulated Utilities, there isn't a specific mandatory 50% rule stated in the snippet, but general corporate methodology often applies. Let's assume a 50% debt treatment for the hybrid instrument which is now outstanding. * Hybrid Debt Adjustment = 50% of 989,000,000 = 494,500,000 EUR. * *Self-Correction/Refinement:* In many utility ratings, if hybrids are rated investment grade and have strong equity characteristics, they might be treated as equity. However, for leverage calculations, adding back a portion is common. Let's look at the change in leverage. Even if we treat it as 0% debt (pure equity), the debt balance dropped significantly. If we treat it as 100% debt, it adds ~1B. Let's stick to the baseline formula: `hybrid_debt_portion`. A common standard is 50%. Let's use 50%. * **Pension Deficit:** "Noncurrent Provisions For Employee Benefits" = 48,400,000 EUR. * **Eligible Cash:** "Cash And Cash Equivalents" = 2,155,100,000 EUR. **2022 Adjusted_Debt** = (11,062,200,000 + 494,500,000 + 48,400,000) - 2,155,100,000 = 11,605,100,000 - 2,155,100,000 = **9,450,000,000 EUR** *(Note: If Hybrids were treated as 0% debt, Adjusted Debt would be ~8.95B. If 100%, ~9.95B. The trend direction is likely robust regardless, but the magnitude matters.)* **Step 10: Calculate 2022 Adjusted_Debt / Adjusted_EBITDA** Ratio = 9,450,000,000 / 2,059,200,000 ≈ **4.59x** **Step 11: Calculate 2022 FFO / Adjusted_Debt** Ratio = 1,524,300,000 / 9,450,000,000 ≈ **0.1613** (or 16.13%) **Step 12: Classify the credit trend** **Signal 1: Leverage (Adjusted_Debt / Adjusted_EBITDA)** * 2021 Ratio: 5.95x * 2022 Ratio: 4.59x * Change: 4.59 - 5.95 = **-1.36x** * Threshold: ≤ -0.2x is Improving. * Signal 1: **Improving** **Signal 2: Cash-flow coverage (FFO / Adjusted_Debt)** * 2021 Ratio: 0.1197 * 2022 Ratio: 0.1613 * Change: 0.1613 - 0.1197 = **+0.0416** * Threshold: ≥ +0.03 is Improving. * Signal 2: **Improving** **Conclusion:** Both signals indicate an **Improving** credit trend. The leverage decreased significantly (by more than 1 turn), and the cash flow coverage increased by more than 4 percentage points. This is driven by strong growth in EBITDA, strong operating cash flow generation, and a reduction in net debt (due to debt repayment and increased cash balances, despite the hybrid issuance). Improving